本文選題：房地產企業(yè)　切入點：財務風險預警　出處：《中原工學院》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：房地產是人類生產、生活和一切社會活動最基本的物質基礎，其與經濟、社會、文化發(fā)展關系密切，在整個國民經濟體系中屬于先導性、基礎性產業(yè)，處于主導產業(yè)地位，起到十分重要的作用。房地產行業(yè)較其他行業(yè)又有著獨特的特征，這些特征決定了房地產企業(yè)屬于高風險、高報酬的行業(yè)，受宏觀環(huán)境較為敏感，使得其本身財務風險較大。近年來，國家對房地產行業(yè)的宏觀調控政策層出不窮，這無疑加大了房地產企業(yè)抵抗財務風險的壓力，多數房地產企業(yè)面臨著巨大的財務風險。在這一研究背景下，對于研究房地產企業(yè)財務風險預警及防范對于房地產行業(yè)具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文在介紹房地產企業(yè)財務風險理論概述的基礎上，闡述了房地產企業(yè)的特點及對房地產企業(yè)的財務風險現(xiàn)狀和成因進行了分析。在綜述國內外學者相關研究的基礎上本文選用因子分析和二元logistic回歸法構建出了房地產預警系統(tǒng)，首先利用中文版SPSS19.0對房地產企業(yè)財務指標進行因子分析，提取出公共因子，然后把各公共因子的方差貢獻率作為權數，建立起房地產企業(yè)的財務風險綜合指標方程，該綜合指標能夠體現(xiàn)企業(yè)財務現(xiàn)狀，衡量房地產企業(yè)財務風險，并對所選樣本做了綜合財務風險的排名；在因子分析的基礎上對公共因子又做了logistic回歸，建立出房地產企業(yè)財務風險預警模型，，該預警模型能夠有效的預測房地產企業(yè)發(fā)生財務危機的可能。利用本文所建的財務預警系統(tǒng)對深圳市國際企業(yè)股份有限公司進行了財務風險預警，并對該企業(yè)進行財務分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)該企業(yè)面臨較大的償債風險、經營風險與投資決策風險，針對這些風險提出了解決和防范建議。最后，在總結全文的基礎上根據本文所建立的財務風險預警系統(tǒng)，對房地產企業(yè)的財務風險預警系統(tǒng)的構建提出建議。
[Abstract]:Real estate is the most basic material basis of human production, life and all social activities. It is closely related to economic, social and cultural development. It is a leading and basic industry in the whole national economic system. The real estate industry has unique characteristics compared with other industries. These characteristics determine that real estate enterprises are high risk, high pay industries and sensitive to the macro environment. In recent years, the state's macroeconomic regulation and control policies on the real estate industry have emerged in endlessly, which undoubtedly increased the pressure on real estate enterprises to resist financial risks. Most real estate enterprises are faced with huge financial risks. Under this research background, it is of great practical significance to study the financial risk early warning and prevention of real estate enterprises. On the basis of introducing the theory of financial risk in real estate enterprises, This paper expounds the characteristics of real estate enterprises and analyzes the present situation and causes of financial risks of real estate enterprises. On the basis of summarizing the relevant researches of scholars at home and abroad, this paper selects factor analysis and binary logistic regression method to construct a real estate early warning system. Firstly, the Chinese version of SPSS19.0 is used to analyze the financial indexes of real estate enterprises, and the common factors are extracted. Then the contribution rate of variance of the public factors is taken as weights to establish the comprehensive index equation of financial risk of real estate enterprises. This comprehensive index can reflect the present financial situation of the enterprise, measure the financial risk of the real estate enterprise, and make the rank of the comprehensive financial risk to the selected sample, and make the logistic regression to the public factor on the basis of factor analysis. Establish the financial risk early warning model of real estate enterprise, This early-warning model can effectively predict the possibility of financial crisis in real estate enterprises. Using the financial early-warning system established in this paper, the financial risk warning of Shenzhen International Enterprise Co., Ltd is carried out, and the financial analysis of this enterprise is carried out. It is found that the enterprise is faced with larger debt repayment risk, management risk and investment decision risk, and puts forward some suggestions to solve these risks. Finally, based on the summary of the full text, the financial risk early warning system is established in this paper. To the real estate enterprise financial risk early warning system construction proposed the proposal.
【學位授予單位】：中原工學院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F299.233.4

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