本文選題：多元化　切入點：Z值　出處：《南京財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：多元化經(jīng)營是公司金融領(lǐng)域的研究重點，自二十世紀五十年代以來，日益引起學者的關(guān)注，迄今為止，關(guān)于多元化的研究主要集中在多元化對企業(yè)績效的利弊上，成果眾多，結(jié)論不一，本文對此不作過多評述。而在此基礎(chǔ)上，從財務(wù)風險角度考察企業(yè)多元化經(jīng)營的合理性，目前國內(nèi)外對這方面的研究相對較少，本文就中國上市公司多元化戰(zhàn)略進行理論分析和實證研究，探究多元化經(jīng)營戰(zhàn)略與企業(yè)財務(wù)風險之間的關(guān)系，以便從企業(yè)財務(wù)風險角度為我國上市公司多元化經(jīng)營提供可行的建議和決策依據(jù)。 本文首先回顧多元化的發(fā)展歷史，提出研究的問題，根據(jù)以前的研究文獻明確多元化經(jīng)營戰(zhàn)略的概念，界定多元化戰(zhàn)略的分類和測度，引入Z-score模型考察企業(yè)財務(wù)風險的程度，在此基礎(chǔ)上，采用滬市上市公司2008年-2011年樣本數(shù)據(jù)，對多元化戰(zhàn)略與企業(yè)財務(wù)風險的相關(guān)關(guān)系進行實證分析，結(jié)果表明：企業(yè)依靠增加行業(yè)數(shù)目的方式擴大多元化，會導致企業(yè)破產(chǎn)風險的可能提高；企業(yè)在開展多元化經(jīng)營的同時，如果能保證主營業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模及其銷售額在全部銷售額中的比重，則可以降低企業(yè)的財務(wù)風險；而企業(yè)的多元化規(guī)模與企業(yè)的財務(wù)風險存在顯著負相關(guān)關(guān)系，即企業(yè)多元化經(jīng)營中，多元化程度越深、規(guī)模越大，企業(yè)破產(chǎn)的風險越低。在證明多元化對企業(yè)破產(chǎn)風險影響的同時，本文選取了現(xiàn)金流量、應(yīng)收賬款及資產(chǎn)負債率，進一步考察多元化的財務(wù)風險效應(yīng)，得出結(jié)論：在對現(xiàn)金流量的分析中，發(fā)現(xiàn)行業(yè)數(shù)目對企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流量沒有顯著性影響，，而業(yè)務(wù)銷售額集中度和多元化規(guī)模則分別從正負兩方面顯著影響企業(yè)的經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量；企業(yè)經(jīng)營業(yè)務(wù)的數(shù)目增多對應(yīng)企業(yè)應(yīng)收賬款的增多，如果主營業(yè)務(wù)銷售額在銷售總額中所占比重提高，則會降低企業(yè)應(yīng)收賬款數(shù)，多元化程度與應(yīng)收賬款顯著正相關(guān)；在應(yīng)收賬款的回歸結(jié)果方面，可以看出業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)量與之正相關(guān)，而主營業(yè)務(wù)銷售額與之負相關(guān)，多元化程度與之正相關(guān)。對多元化與資產(chǎn)負債率的關(guān)系分析，結(jié)果顯示多元化程度高導致企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負債率也較高。
[Abstract]:Diversification is the focus of research in the field of corporate finance. Since 1950s, scholars have paid more and more attention to diversification. Up to now, the research on diversification has mainly focused on the pros and cons of diversification on corporate performance and has achieved a lot. The conclusion is different, this article does not make too much comment on this, but on this basis, from the angle of financial risk to investigate the rationality of enterprise diversification, at present, there is relatively little research on this aspect at home and abroad. This paper makes theoretical analysis and empirical research on diversification strategy of listed companies in China, and explores the relationship between diversification strategy and financial risk of enterprises. In order to provide feasible suggestions and decision basis for the diversification of listed companies in China from the angle of enterprise financial risk. This paper first reviews the history of diversification, puts forward the research issues, defines the concept of diversification strategy, defines the classification and measurement of diversification strategy, and introduces Z-score model to investigate the degree of financial risk. On this basis, using the sample data of listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange from 2008 to 2011, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between diversification strategy and financial risk of enterprises. The results show that enterprises expand diversification by increasing the number of industries. It will lead to the increase of the risk of bankruptcy, and the enterprise can reduce the financial risk if it can ensure the scale of the main business and the proportion of the sales volume in the total sales. However, there is a significant negative correlation between the diversification scale and the financial risk of the enterprise, that is, the deeper the diversification degree, the larger the scale. The lower the risk of enterprise bankruptcy, the lower the risk of bankruptcy. While proving the influence of diversification on enterprise bankruptcy risk, this paper selects cash flow, accounts receivable and asset-liability ratio to further investigate the financial risk effect of diversification. Conclusion: in the analysis of cash flow, it is found that the number of industries has no significant influence on the cash flow of enterprises, while the concentration of business sales and the scale of diversification significantly affect the operating cash flow of enterprises from both positive and negative aspects. The increase in the number of business operations corresponds to the increase of accounts receivable. If the sales volume of the main business increases in the total sales volume, it will reduce the number of accounts receivable, and the diversification degree is significantly positive correlation with the accounts receivable; In the regression results of accounts receivable, we can see that the number of business is positively related to it, while the sales volume of main business is negatively correlated with it, and the degree of diversification is positively related to it. The results show that the high degree of diversification leads to a higher ratio of assets and liabilities.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F832.51

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