發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-11 15:37

  本文選題：成本管理　切入點(diǎn)：房?jī)r(jià)預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：住宅項(xiàng)目實(shí)施前對(duì)擬建產(chǎn)品(住宅)目標(biāo)特征的決策及對(duì)其設(shè)計(jì)方案不僅決定住宅的出售價(jià)格與成本,而且決定項(xiàng)目投資能否成功。國(guó)內(nèi)外住宅的價(jià)格與成本內(nèi)容、項(xiàng)目管理模式、影響因素及環(huán)境的不同,導(dǎo)致對(duì)于住宅項(xiàng)目的價(jià)格、成本預(yù)測(cè)內(nèi)容及方法差異很大。我國(guó)商品住宅項(xiàng)目成本管理實(shí)踐中,由于住宅項(xiàng)目房屋及土地的使用權(quán)限,對(duì)于成本管理僅限于建設(shè)期間總施工總承包單位的成本管理,往往忽視目標(biāo)決策對(duì)成本的影響及對(duì)既定目標(biāo)實(shí)施的管理。另一方面,業(yè)主層級(jí)管理權(quán)限的不確定性與建設(shè)工程成本數(shù)據(jù)的單一性,使得建設(shè)項(xiàng)目工程成本數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)成十分復(fù)雜。不僅如此,投資管理者與項(xiàng)目成本管理者之間缺乏有效的聯(lián)系與溝通,導(dǎo)致工程實(shí)施后期,部分業(yè)主可能會(huì)通過(guò)降低材料質(zhì)量和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)滿足成本的要求。鑒于國(guó)內(nèi)研究項(xiàng)目成本基礎(chǔ)資料極其匱乏,因此通過(guò)已完工程資料,研究住宅項(xiàng)目?jī)r(jià)格、成本及目標(biāo)特征之間的關(guān)系在我國(guó)工程實(shí)踐及城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)中具有重大意義。本文以造價(jià)管理理論、統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)理論、多元統(tǒng)計(jì)分析為理論工具,將鄭州市區(qū)的57個(gè)商品住宅項(xiàng)目?jī)r(jià)格及工程成本為研究樣本,系統(tǒng)地分析了住宅項(xiàng)目特征與成本和價(jià)格之間的關(guān)系,提出決策階段與設(shè)計(jì)階段,應(yīng)以住宅目標(biāo)特征做為主線進(jìn)行成本控制的觀點(diǎn)及相應(yīng)的管理控制流程和計(jì)價(jià)方法;通過(guò)實(shí)際工程分析,建立的基于已完住宅特征住宅成本、價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)模型,不但能夠提供住宅項(xiàng)目?jī)r(jià)格與目標(biāo)特征之間的函數(shù)關(guān)系,而且是項(xiàng)目成本管理與投資管理之間的溝通橋梁。更有意義的是,作者在住宅項(xiàng)目?jī)r(jià)格與成本的實(shí)證研究中,對(duì)收集的實(shí)踐工程數(shù)據(jù)用統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)理論進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)分析,可以成為研究工程成本的計(jì)價(jià)方法與理論有力的數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ),從而填補(bǔ)了國(guó)內(nèi)工程造價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)理論與方法實(shí)證研究的空白。本文的主要研究工作有以下幾方面:1、以造價(jià)管理理論為基礎(chǔ),將住宅的出售價(jià)格與目標(biāo)特征引入到項(xiàng)目前期造價(jià)管理中,提出以深化住宅目標(biāo)特征為主線進(jìn)行決策階段與設(shè)計(jì)階段的項(xiàng)目成本管理概念,給出了相應(yīng)的管理流程與方法。該理論框架有效地將投資管理與成本管理緊密聯(lián)系在一起,使得住宅產(chǎn)品的差異化設(shè)計(jì)能夠受其出售價(jià)格控制,保證成本管理是在項(xiàng)目投資成功的前提下進(jìn)行。2、基于目標(biāo)特征的住宅價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)模型是保證決策與設(shè)計(jì)階段成本管理的核心內(nèi)容。本文應(yīng)用模糊數(shù)學(xué)綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法,建立影響房?jī)r(jià)與成本的住宅目標(biāo)特征指標(biāo)體系,可以有效引導(dǎo)投資者在決策時(shí)考慮的內(nèi)容,與實(shí)施時(shí)影響工程成本的因素有效地結(jié)合起來(lái)。論文利用收集實(shí)際樣本的房?jī)r(jià)及建立相應(yīng)特征指標(biāo)來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)合理的住宅價(jià)格�？梢蕴峁┮呀⒆≌繕�(biāo)特征與價(jià)格的函數(shù)關(guān)系。使決策者在住宅產(chǎn)品的設(shè)計(jì)及實(shí)施,完全以其出售價(jià)格匹配的特征為依據(jù),避免成本分配的不合理性,為價(jià)值工程實(shí)施提供了前提條件。3、在住宅項(xiàng)目總成本中,除稅、土地費(fèi)用及其它規(guī)費(fèi)等不可控成本外,作者對(duì)已完的工程的可控成本數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的收集、處理與分析,并制定了收集、處理住宅可控成本的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。彌補(bǔ)了我國(guó)在工程項(xiàng)目造價(jià)研究中實(shí)證數(shù)據(jù)樣本匱乏的現(xiàn)狀。4、應(yīng)用偏最小二乘方法對(duì)收集數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,去除特異點(diǎn),進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),建立了成本與特征之間的關(guān)系。分析結(jié)果顯示,管理能力在是成本預(yù)測(cè)的重要因素之一,雖不能有效降低成本,然而對(duì)成本的合理性具有一定作用。
[Abstract]:Prior to the implementation of the project of the residential products (residential) target feature of decision-making and the design scheme is not only the decision to sell the residential housing price and cost, but also determines the success of the project investment. The price and cost of content at home and abroad, the project management mode, influencing factors and the environment is different, resulting in the price of residential project cost. The content and method of prediction difference greatly. The practice of cost management of China's commodity residential projects, due to the use of housing and Land Authority residential projects, the cost management is only limited to the total cost management of construction general contracting units during the construction period, often ignore the decision impact on cost management and the implementation of the target. On the other hand, a single the uncertainty and the construction project cost management level data owners, the construction project cost data composition is very complicated. Not only that, investment The lack of effective communication and contact between the manager and the project cost management, resulting in project implementation stage, some owners may by lowering the quality of materials and standards to meet the requirements of cost. In view of the domestic research project cost data is extremely scarce, so the process has been completed, the price of residential projects, the relationship between cost and target feature is of great significance in the construction of China's engineering practice and the town. Based on the cost management theory, statistics theory, multivariate statistical analysis as the theoretical tool, the price and cost of 57 residential project in Zhengzhou city as the research sample, this paper systematically analyses the relationship between residential project characteristics and cost and price, put forward the decision stage and design stage, should be based on the target feature of residential do cost control points and the corresponding management control process and valuation method as the main line; Through the practical engineering analysis, completed residential residential building based on the characteristics of cost, price forecasting model, can not only provide the function relation between residential project price and target characteristics, and it is the bridge of communication between project cost management and investment management. Moreover, the author in the empirical research on the price and cost of residential projects in practice the project of the data collected were analyzed by statistical theory, can become a research project cost valuation method and the theory of powerful data base, to fill the gaps in the domestic engineering cost forecast theory and method of empirical research. The main research work of this paper is as follows: 1, the cost management theory as a foundation, will sell the characteristics of housing price and the target into the pre cost management project, proposed to deepen the housing target feature as the main method and design decision stage Project cost management concept, the corresponding management process and methods. The theoretical framework effectively will be closely linked with the investment management and cost management, make the difference design of residential products to ensure the selling price control, cost management is the premise of the.2 in the success of the project investment, the housing price forecasting model based on the features of the target is to ensure that the core content of decision-making and design stage cost management. This paper used the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the establishment of index system of housing prices affect the target characteristics and cost, can effectively guide the investors to consider the decision-making contents, factors of project cost and implementation effect effectively combine the collection of actual samples. The prices and establish corresponding indicators to predict reasonable housing price using paper. Can provide established target features and residential price The function. Make the decision maker in the design and implementation of residential products, complete with its selling price matching characteristics as the basis, to avoid unreasonable cost allocation, provides a prerequisite for the.3 value of the implementation of the project, the total cost of residential projects, in addition to tax, land costs and fees are not controllable cost it the author of the completed project, the controllable cost data were systematically collected, processed and analyzed, and the development of the collection, treatment of residential controllable cost standard. Make up our research project cost in the empirical data sample lack is.4, using partial least squares method for statistical analysis of the data collection, removal specific point, forecast, established the relationship between cost and characteristics. Analysis results show that the management ability is one of the important factors in cost prediction, can not effectively reduce the cost, but the cost is reasonable Sex has a certain effect.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23;TU723.3

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