本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于情景分析的環(huán)保投資路徑選擇研究　出處：《大連理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 情景分析 環(huán)保投資 路徑選擇 灰色預(yù)測

【摘要】：隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)快速增長，在加速工業(yè)化和城市化進(jìn)程中，資源和環(huán)境壓力不斷加劇，嚴(yán)重制約著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。如何節(jié)能減排，保持經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展，已成為中國一段時期內(nèi)所面臨的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。環(huán)保投資作為影響污染排放的最主要影響因素之一，是實現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排的重要手段。環(huán)保投資額的投入量過小，則可能達(dá)不到減排要求；投入額過大，則會浪費財政支出，同時影響經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。因此，選擇能夠滿足政府規(guī)劃目標(biāo)的環(huán)保投資方案，并形成相應(yīng)政策建議具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。 本學(xué)位論文由五章構(gòu)成。第一章為緒論，闡述了基于情景分析的環(huán)保投資路徑選擇研究科學(xué)問題的性質(zhì)、研究背景和研究意義，綜述了關(guān)于環(huán)保投資路徑選擇的研究現(xiàn)狀。第二章為基于情景分析的環(huán)保投資路徑選擇的原理，概述了本研究中所采用的研究原理。第三章是基于情景分析的環(huán)保投資路徑選擇的方法與思路，詳細(xì)說明了模型的構(gòu)建方法與思路。第四章是綠色產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)劃中環(huán)保投資路徑選擇模型的建立，在大連市“十二五”綠色產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)劃的框架下，根據(jù)大連市2005-2011年環(huán)保投資和化學(xué)需氧量排放量數(shù)據(jù)建立大連市“十二五”時期環(huán)保投資路徑選擇模型，并提出了相關(guān)政策建議。 本文的主要工作： (1)利用灰色GM(1,1)模型對環(huán)保投資進(jìn)行預(yù)測，通過模型遴選確定環(huán)保投資與污染物排放量的函數(shù)關(guān)系式，對環(huán)保投資與污染物排放量進(jìn)行情景分析，建立基于情景分析的環(huán)保投資路徑選擇模型。 (2)根據(jù)大連市2005-2011年環(huán)保投資和化學(xué)需氧量排放量數(shù)據(jù)，建立大連市“十二五”時期環(huán)保投資路徑選擇模型，研究表明：轉(zhuǎn)型情景是大連市環(huán)保投資的最佳發(fā)展路徑。 本文的主要創(chuàng)新與特色： (1)通過擬合精度對比，從備選模型中遴選出最優(yōu)的環(huán)保投資與污染物排放量函數(shù)關(guān)系式，，避免了人為確定的主觀隨意性。 (2)在設(shè)置慣性、轉(zhuǎn)型、弱干楨和強(qiáng)千頊4種情景時，通過將不同情景與環(huán)保投資增長率以及相應(yīng)政策建議關(guān)聯(lián)，在確定最優(yōu)環(huán)保投資發(fā)展路徑的情況下，得到了相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the sustained and rapid growth in China economy, accelerating industrialization and city modernization, resources and environmental pressures intensified, seriously restricting the sustainable development of economy and society. How to save energy and maintain sustainable economic development, has become a serious challenge to Chinese period faces. Environmental investment as one of the main influencing factors effect of pollution emissions, is an important means to realize energy saving and emission reduction. Amount of environmental protection investment is too small, it may not reach the emission reduction requirements; investment amount is too large, it would be a waste of fiscal expenditure, while the impact of economic development. Therefore, the government investment project selection to meet environmental planning goals, and the formation of the corresponding policy that has a certain practical significance.
This thesis consists of five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, elaborated the environmental protection investment path scenario analysis choose the nature scientific research based on the research background and significance, summarizes the current situation of research on selection of environmental protection investment path. The second chapter is the principle of selection of environmental protection investment path based on scenario analysis, summarizes the research principle used in this study. The third chapter is the methods and ideas of environmental protection investment path selection based on scenario analysis, a detailed description of the construction methods and ideas of the model. The fourth chapter is the establishment of environmental protection investment road green industry planning path selection model, in the city of Dalian, "12th Five-Year" green industry planning framework, according to the data investment in environmental protection and COD emissions of 2005-2011 years in Dalian City, Dalian City, the establishment of the "12th Five-Year" period of environmental protection investment path selection model, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions Yee.
The main work of this article is:
(1) use grey GM (1,1) model to predict the environmental investment. Through the selection of the model, we can identify the functional relationship between environmental investment and pollutant emissions, analyze the situation of environmental investment and pollutant emissions, and establish the environmental investment path selection model based on scenario analysis.
(2) according to the data of environmental protection investment and chemical oxygen demand emissions in Dalian in the past 2005-2011 years, the environmental investment path selection model of Dalian during the "12th Five-Year" period was established. The research shows that transition scenario is the best development path of Dalian's environmental investment.
The main innovations and features of this article are:
(1) by comparing the fitting accuracy, we choose the optimal function relationship between environmental investment and pollutant emissions from the alternative model, avoiding the subjective arbitrariness determined by man.
(2) the transformation in the setting of inertia, weak and strong over thousands of dry frame 4 scenarios, the different scenarios and environmental protection investment growth rate and the corresponding policy recommendations, in determining the optimal environmental protection investment development path under the condition of the corresponding policy recommendations.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.48;X324

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