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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：商品住宅成本與價格的變化態(tài)勢分析　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 商品住宅 成本變化 市場需求 價格

【摘要】：本文在國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于商品住宅成本和價格方面研究的基礎(chǔ)上,對商品住宅成本的構(gòu)成及其變化進行研究,進而從成本角度探討對價格變化的影響。在規(guī)范分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對我國2003年至2012年商品住宅市場成本和價格的變化態(tài)勢進行了實證分析,對該特定時期內(nèi)價格變化的主要影響因素進行探討。 首先,本文從住宅市場結(jié)構(gòu)方面討論了其與住宅價格上漲之間的關(guān)系。通過市場集中度、產(chǎn)品差異和進入壁壘分析,推知現(xiàn)階段我國商品住宅市場屬于壟斷競爭結(jié)構(gòu),房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)并不能夠獨立控制、改變房地產(chǎn)市場價格。從市場結(jié)構(gòu)分析可知,商品住宅的價格變動并不應(yīng)該歸因于壟斷結(jié)構(gòu),而應(yīng)是城市化過程中的需求拉動所致。 其次,本文針對商品住宅成本的構(gòu)成及變化進行了分析。根據(jù)成本的作用方式不同,將成本分為直接成本和間接成本兩個大類,并分別進行了討論。在觀察期內(nèi)商品住宅的直接成本總體呈現(xiàn)增加趨勢,土地成本的增加受到政府政策和市場需求的影響,而建設(shè)成本增加則更多的歸因于原材料價格的上漲和人工費用的增加。歸其根本,成本的上升仍是由于商品住宅旺盛的需求而拉動所致的。 隨后,本文針對商品住宅價格的影響因素及變動情況進行了分析。自住宅商品化以來,我國商品住宅的價格一直保持持續(xù)增長的勢頭,但以2003年為分界點,之前的商品住宅市場發(fā)展較為動蕩,之后商品住宅的價格趨勢整體而言更有規(guī)律。 最后,本文通過對2003年至2012年10年期間的部分宏觀經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)的季度進行回歸,并通過對一階差分序列運用格蘭杰因果檢驗法進行分析,證實了我國商品住宅市場近年來的價格變動根源是市場的需求拉動,而非簡單的成本推動。這不僅能夠幫助理解商品住宅市場的運作規(guī)律,還能夠為商品住宅的價格波動做出一些解釋,具有一定意義。
[Abstract]:The scholars at home and abroad based on the study of commercial housing cost and price, to study the formation and change of commercial housing costs, and to explore the influence of the price change from the perspective of cost. On the basis of normative analysis, the change trend of China from 2003 to 2012, the commercial housing market price and cost of empirical analysis of the main factors of the change of the price of a specific period of time.
First, this paper discusses the relationship between housing price rising from the structure of the residential market. The market concentration, product differentiation and barriers to entry analysis, from the commercial housing market in our country at the present stage belongs to monopoly structure, real estate development enterprises are not able to independently control, change the price of the real estate market analysis from the market. The structure, changes in the price of commercial housing should not be attributed to the monopoly structure, but should be caused by demand in the process of the city.
Secondly, this article analyzes the structure and change of commercial housing cost. According to the mode of action of the different cost, the cost will be divided into direct and indirect costs of two categories, and are also discussed. An upward trend in the direct costs of the observation period of residential overall, the increase in the cost of land affected by the government policy and market demand, and increase the construction cost increase is more due to the rising prices of raw materials and labor costs. The cost is still rising, while stimulating due to commercial housing demand.
Then, this article analyzes the influencing factors of housing price and changes. Since the commercialization of housing, commercial housing prices in China have maintained a sustained growth momentum, but the cut-off point in 2003, before the development of commercial housing market is more volatile, the price trend of commercial housing after the whole more regularly.
Finally, the regression based part of the 2003 to 2012 period of 10 years of macroeconomic indicators for the quarter, and based on the first-order difference sequence using the Grainger test for causal analysis, confirmed that China's commercial housing market in recent years, the price change is rooted in market demand, rather than simply the cost push. Can not only help to understand the operation law of the commercial housing market, also can make some explanation for the price fluctuation of commercial housing, has a certain significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F299.23

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本文編號：1392675