本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)模型的浦發(fā)銀行價(jià)值評(píng)估　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：近年來(lái),隨著我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)連連遭遇熊市,自2008年下半年大面積震蕩下跌開(kāi)始至今,國(guó)內(nèi)證券市場(chǎng)一片低迷,而這一現(xiàn)象意味著國(guó)內(nèi)大量上市企業(yè)的企業(yè)價(jià)值嚴(yán)重下降。在諸多種類(lèi)的股票中銀行股向來(lái)以運(yùn)行平穩(wěn),漲跌幅度較小而著稱(chēng),但許多商業(yè)銀行的股價(jià)在這一輪股市下跌中也未能幸免,那么,從理論上來(lái)講,這些銀行自身的企業(yè)真實(shí)價(jià)值也應(yīng)與股市走向相同而呈現(xiàn)下跌趨勢(shì)。 但令廣大投資者以及上市公司領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人無(wú)法理解的是,自2010年始至2012年之間我國(guó)東北地區(qū)的各大商業(yè)銀行不但沒(méi)有呈現(xiàn)出與股價(jià)相符的頹勢(shì),反倒是一片紅紅火火。僅以沈陽(yáng)為例,許多股份制商業(yè)銀行諸如招商銀行,民生銀行,華夏銀行,浦發(fā)銀行等紛紛在遼寧省內(nèi)周邊地區(qū)如遼陽(yáng),撫順,鐵嶺,本溪等城市成立了多家分支機(jī)構(gòu),這種擴(kuò)張的幅度與低迷的股市呈現(xiàn)出了兩種截然相反的運(yùn)行趨勢(shì)。 本文以上海浦東發(fā)展銀行股份有限公司近5年以來(lái)的一些真實(shí)經(jīng)營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)為理論依據(jù),以現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)模型的評(píng)估形式為核心,對(duì)于浦發(fā)銀行的真實(shí)企業(yè)價(jià)值進(jìn)行了客觀而詳盡的評(píng)析,并據(jù)此探討浦發(fā)銀行股價(jià)的波動(dòng)與其真實(shí)銀行價(jià)值漲跌之間的聯(lián)系與反差,希望能夠?yàn)閺V大的投資者以及金融機(jī)構(gòu)管理人員提供一份具備一定參考價(jià)值的案例以供研究,為我國(guó)股份制商業(yè)銀行的健康發(fā)展做出一份貢獻(xiàn)。 通常來(lái)講,對(duì)于企業(yè)價(jià)值的評(píng)估離不開(kāi)對(duì)于其負(fù)債資本成本的計(jì)算。但商業(yè)銀行的負(fù)債資金成本與一般企業(yè)的負(fù)債資金成本往往是不同的,這是因?yàn)楣煞葜粕虡I(yè)銀行與絕大多數(shù)上市企業(yè)在市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)中扮演的角色有所不同,其對(duì)于負(fù)債資產(chǎn)的使用運(yùn)營(yíng)方式有所不同,其主要資金來(lái)源有所不同,其負(fù)債資產(chǎn)的結(jié)構(gòu)構(gòu)成也有著本質(zhì)上的差異。因此本文采用現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)評(píng)估這一方法來(lái)對(duì)上海浦東發(fā)展銀行進(jìn)行企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估以求評(píng)估結(jié)果的客觀性和準(zhǔn)確性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with China's stock market repeatedly hit the market, since the second half of 2008 a large area tumbled since the start of the domestic stock market downturn, and this phenomenon implies a serious decline in a large number of domestic listed enterprise value. In many types of stock in bank stocks has always been a smooth operation, small change is known however, many commercial banks in this round of price decline was not spared, so, theoretically speaking, the true value of the enterprise bank itself should also be the same with the direction of the stock market showed a downward trend.
But the majority of investors and the listed company leaders do not understand is, since the beginning of 2010 to 2012 in the northeast of China's major commercial banks not only showed no consistent with stock price decline, but is a booming. Only by taking Shenyang as an example, many joint-stock commercial banks such as China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank, China the bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank have in Liaoning province surrounding areas such as Liaoyang, Fushun, Tieling, Benxi and other city set up branches, the expansion of the amplitude and the downturn in the stock market showed two opposite operation trend.
In this paper, some real operation data of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Limited by Share Ltd for nearly 5 years as the theory basis, the discounted cash flow model to evaluate the form as the core, the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank real enterprise value evaluates objectively and fully, and tries to contact with the contrast between the Pudong Development Bank stock price volatility and the real value of the bank price the hope can provide a certain reference value for the case study for the majority of investors and financial institutions management personnel, make a contribution for the healthy development of China's joint-stock commercial banks.
Generally speaking, to assess the value of enterprises cannot do without the calculation of the debt capital cost. But the commercial bank's cost of debt capital and general corporate debt financing cost is often different, this is because the joint-stock commercial banks and the majority of Listed Companies in the market economy plays different roles, for its liabilities the use of assets operation in different ways, the main source of funds is different, the structure of assets and liabilities which are essentially different. So this paper uses the discounted cash flow method to assess the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank to assess enterprise value to the objectivity and accuracy of evaluation results.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.33;F832.51

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