本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國商品住宅價格：影響因素與空間傳導機制　出處：《天津財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 商品住宅價格 增長極 波紋效應 空間計量

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟的不斷發(fā)展,城市化進程不斷加深,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)得到了迅猛的發(fā)展,在國民經(jīng)濟增長中扮演著越來越重要的角色。作為房地產(chǎn)業(yè)繁榮與否的風向標,商品住宅價格的波動直接影響到國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和居民生活水平的高低。 首先,通過對1998-2010年全國各地區(qū)商品住宅平均價格分析發(fā)現(xiàn)可以把各地區(qū)商品住宅價格增長趨勢劃分為激增、先緩后快、穩(wěn)定增長、劇烈波動和先波動后穩(wěn)步增長五個類型。 其次,研究表明,經(jīng)濟的增長極理論同樣適用于房地產(chǎn)市場,商品住宅價格的增長是伴隨著經(jīng)濟增長同時發(fā)生的,這就會在個別地區(qū)出現(xiàn)商品住宅價格的極化和擴散效應。而導致這兩種效應的根本原因是資本和勞動要素在區(qū)域間的流動。同時,結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)的波紋效應理論,從人口、空間套利投機、財富轉(zhuǎn)移和地區(qū)因素這四個方面討論了商品住宅價格空間波動的影響因素和傳導機制。對1998-2010年全國各地區(qū)省際商品住宅價格數(shù)據(jù)的空間探索分析發(fā)現(xiàn)我國各省市之間商品住宅價格確實存在一定的正空間相關(guān)性,并且在空間分布上呈現(xiàn)出集聚態(tài)勢。 最后,在中國省際商品住宅價格的空間面板模型的基礎(chǔ)上,經(jīng)過分析得到如下結(jié)論：人均GDP、失業(yè)率、人均可支配收入、人均商品住宅投資額以及土地成本都是影響區(qū)域間商品住宅價格的波動的主要因素,而失業(yè)率的影響效應最大,說明了勞動要素在區(qū)域間的流動會在很大程度上影響商品住宅價格的變化。在模型的擬合度上,空間誤差模型要優(yōu)于空間滯后模型,這說明我國各地區(qū)商品住宅價格在空間上受到不可觀測因素的影響很大,表明了投機行為和資本的流動對商品住宅價格的影響程度。此外,進一步著眼于局部地區(qū),建立以京津冀地區(qū)各城市面板數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)的空間面板誤差模型,研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),在局部地區(qū),政府行為對區(qū)域間商品住宅價格的波動會產(chǎn)生較大影響。
[Abstract]:With the development of our country's economy and the deepening of urbanization, the real estate industry has been developing rapidly and playing a more and more important role in the national economic growth. The fluctuation of commodity housing price directly affects the development of national economy and the living standard of residents. First of all, through the analysis of the average prices of commodity housing in various regions of the country from 1998 to 2010, we find that the growth trend of commodity housing prices in various regions can be divided into sharp increase, first slow and then rapid, stable growth. Violent fluctuations and first fluctuations followed by steady growth of five types. Secondly, the study shows that the economic growth pole theory is also applicable to the real estate market, the growth of commodity housing prices is accompanied by economic growth at the same time. This will lead to the polarization and diffusion effects of commodity housing prices in individual regions, and the fundamental cause of these two effects is the flow of capital and labor elements between regions. At the same time, the corrugated effect theory of real estate is combined. Arbitrage from population, space. This paper discusses the influence factors and transmission mechanism of the spatial fluctuation of commodity housing price from the four aspects of wealth transfer and regional factors. The Spatial Exploration of Inter-provincial Commodity Housing Price data in China from 1998 to 2010. It is found that there is a positive spatial correlation between commodity housing prices between provinces and cities in China. And in the spatial distribution showed a situation of agglomeration. Finally, based on the spatial panel model of interprovincial commodity housing prices in China, the following conclusions are obtained: per capita GDP, unemployment rate, per capita disposable income. The per capita commodity housing investment and land cost are the main factors that affect the fluctuation of the commodity housing price, while the unemployment rate has the biggest effect. It shows that the flow of labor elements between regions will greatly affect the change of commodity housing prices. In terms of the fitting degree of the model, the spatial error model is better than the spatial lag model. This shows that commodity housing prices in various regions of China are greatly affected by non-observable factors in space, indicating the impact of speculative behavior and capital flows on commodity housing prices. Further focusing on the local area, the spatial panel error model based on the data of each city panel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is established, and the results show that the model is in the local area. Government behavior will have a greater impact on regional commodity housing price fluctuations.
【學位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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本文編號：1376578