本文選題：技術(shù)創(chuàng)新風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)與擴(kuò)散�。� 參考：《南京大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：由于受到08年全球金融危機(jī)的沖擊,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度逐漸放緩、下行壓力持續(xù)增大,"創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)"成為我國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展新常態(tài)的有效途徑而高收益、高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的兩個(gè)顯著特征。高額的經(jīng)濟(jì)收益推動(dòng)著企業(yè)實(shí)施技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、吸收外部新技術(shù),是技術(shù)創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的內(nèi)在動(dòng)力而技術(shù)創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散是其促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的實(shí)現(xiàn)途徑;同時(shí),各種不確定性因素的影響使它又具有高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特點(diǎn)。技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的擴(kuò)散提供了可能,一旦技術(shù)創(chuàng)新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隨著技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散在市場(chǎng)上大范圍傳播,這必將影響整個(gè)市場(chǎng)的正常運(yùn)行進(jìn)而影響我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此,深入了解技術(shù)創(chuàng)新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)與擴(kuò)散的機(jī)制具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文在梳理相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)了技術(shù)創(chuàng)新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)的影響因素、特點(diǎn)和模式,基于復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論、擴(kuò)散理論和個(gè)人決策理論從過程的角度提出了兩階段技術(shù)創(chuàng)新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)模型。它將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳導(dǎo)與擴(kuò)散分為兩個(gè)階段:技術(shù)創(chuàng)新傳導(dǎo)與擴(kuò)散和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)與擴(kuò)散,通過構(gòu)建企業(yè)的決策規(guī)則、交互規(guī)則以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移規(guī)則實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)與擴(kuò)散過程的邏輯抽象。文章運(yùn)用Multi Agent的建模方法在Anylogic軟件上實(shí)現(xiàn)了這一理論的計(jì)算實(shí)驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ?通過4組仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)研究了技術(shù)創(chuàng)新類型、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新局部趨同程度、企業(yè)異質(zhì)性和政府干預(yù)政策對(duì)其傳導(dǎo)與擴(kuò)散過程的影響機(jī)制。通過對(duì)計(jì)算實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析總結(jié),文章認(rèn)為企業(yè)局部協(xié)作網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)是影響技術(shù)創(chuàng)新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能否大范圍擴(kuò)散的關(guān)鍵因素,而技術(shù)創(chuàng)新類型、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新局部趨同程度、企業(yè)異質(zhì)性是通過影響企業(yè)局部協(xié)作網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)及其疊加范圍和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在局部協(xié)作網(wǎng)絡(luò)內(nèi)的傳導(dǎo)速度來影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳導(dǎo)與擴(kuò)散過程,政府干預(yù)政策則通過直接影響社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中企業(yè)外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳導(dǎo)、間接影響技術(shù)創(chuàng)新負(fù)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)外部性來影響相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳導(dǎo)與擴(kuò)散過程。
[Abstract]:Due to the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the economic growth rate of our country has gradually slowed down, and the downward pressure continues to increase. "Innovation driving" has become an effective way for our country to cope with the new normal of economic development. High risk is two remarkable characteristics of technological innovation. The high economic benefits push enterprises to implement technological innovation and absorb new external technologies, which is the internal motive force of technological innovation diffusion, which is the way to promote economic growth. The influence of all kinds of uncertain factors makes it have the characteristic of high risk. The diffusion of technological innovation provides the possibility for the diffusion of risk. Once the risk of technological innovation spreads in a large scale with the diffusion of technological innovation in the market, it will affect the normal operation of the whole market and then affect the sustainable development of our country's economy and society. Therefore, it is of theoretical and practical significance to deeply understand the mechanism of risk transmission and diffusion of technological innovation. This paper summarizes the influencing factors, characteristics and modes of risk transmission of technological innovation, based on the theory of complex network. Diffusion theory and individual decision theory put forward a two-stage risk conduction model of technological innovation from the perspective of process. It divides the transmission and diffusion of risk into two stages: transmission and diffusion of technological innovation and transmission and diffusion of risk of technological innovation. Interaction rules and risk transfer rules realize the logical abstraction of technological innovation risk transmission and diffusion process. This paper uses the modeling method of Multi Agent to realize the computational experimental model of this theory on Anylogic software. Through four groups of simulation experiments, the types of technological innovation and the degree of local convergence of technological innovation are studied. The influence mechanism of enterprise heterogeneity and government intervention policy on its conduction and diffusion process. Through the analysis and summary of the results of the calculation experiment, the paper thinks that the network structure of local cooperation is the key factor to influence whether the risk of technological innovation can be spread on a large scale, and the type of technological innovation, the degree of local convergence of technological innovation, Enterprise heterogeneity affects the process of risk transmission and diffusion by influencing the local cooperative network structure and its superposition scope and the conduction velocity of risk in the local cooperative network. The government intervention policy affects the transmission and diffusion of related risks by directly influencing the transmission of external risks in social networks and indirectly influencing the negative network externalities of technological innovation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F273.1
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本文編號(hào)：2088840