發(fā)布時間：2018-05-16 08:00

  本文選題：利益相關者 + 財務危機�。� 參考：《江蘇師范大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著全球經(jīng)濟一體化步伐的加快,企業(yè)在迎接改革和發(fā)展機遇的同時,也面臨更加激烈的競爭和更加復雜的內(nèi)外部環(huán)境,多數(shù)企業(yè)往往面臨的是生存問題,然后才是發(fā)展問題。如何適應環(huán)境變化,提高抗風險能力,是擺在企業(yè)管理者面前一個既現(xiàn)實又嚴峻的問題。在這種形勢下,預警管理的重要性日益凸顯,企業(yè)信息化水平的提高也為企業(yè)建立預警體系奠定了基礎。因此,關于企業(yè)財務危機的預警和控制問題成為學術(shù)界和實務界致力研究的重要課題。當前國內(nèi)外學者關于財務危機的研究成果主要集中在各種財務預警模型上,這為財務危機研究的進一步發(fā)展奠定了良好的基礎。然而傳統(tǒng)財務預警模型大多側(cè)重于分析內(nèi)部財務數(shù)據(jù),缺乏從系統(tǒng)全局的角度考慮財務危機的形成過程,因此,無法從根源上找出企業(yè)財務的病因所在,也很難為企業(yè)管理者所用。鑒于此,本文從利益相關者的視角出發(fā),通過分析利益相關者的行為模式,深入剖析企業(yè)財務危機演化的動因、演化路徑,并利用系統(tǒng)動力學建模方法建立財務預警模型,最后通過實例分析驗證模型的科學性和可行性,為企業(yè)財務預警管理工作提供理論指導和方法借鑒。本文首先回顧了國內(nèi)外關于企業(yè)財務預警的研究現(xiàn)狀,在此基礎上提出本文的研究思路和方法。其次,揭示企業(yè)財務危機演化機理。深入探討利益相關者行為與企業(yè)財務危機之間的邏輯關聯(lián),在微觀個體行為和宏觀財務危機現(xiàn)象之間建立起聯(lián)系的橋梁,全面系統(tǒng)地分析了導致財務危機的關鍵因素以及企業(yè)財務危機的演化路徑,為研究財務危機預警管理這類復雜問題提供了新的理論依據(jù)。再次,在Vensim仿真環(huán)境下建立基于利益相關者的企業(yè)財務危機預警仿真模型。以系統(tǒng)動力學為工具,注重分析企業(yè)財務系統(tǒng)內(nèi)外部結(jié)構(gòu)和變量間因果關系,全面展示了企業(yè)財務危機的形成路徑和演化過程。最后,以某造紙企業(yè)為樣本,對仿真模型進行了應用,進一步驗證研究成果的科學性和可行性。不僅辨識了財務危機因素,還通過敏感性分析為財務政策的制定和調(diào)整提供了參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the pace of global economic integration, enterprises are facing more fierce competition and more complex internal and external environment while meeting the opportunities of reform and development. Most enterprises often face survival problems, then development problems. How to adapt to the change of environment and improve the ability to resist risks is a realistic and severe problem for enterprise managers. In this situation, the importance of early warning management is increasingly prominent, and the improvement of enterprise information level has laid a foundation for the establishment of early warning system. Therefore, the problem of early warning and control of enterprise financial crisis has become an important research topic in academic and practical circles. At present, the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars on financial crisis are mainly focused on various financial early-warning models, which has laid a good foundation for the further development of financial crisis research. However, most of the traditional financial early-warning models focus on the analysis of internal financial data, and lack of considering the forming process of financial crisis from the overall perspective of the system. Therefore, it is impossible to find out the cause of enterprise finance from the root. It is also difficult for business managers to use. In view of this, this paper, from the perspective of stakeholders, through the analysis of stakeholder behavior patterns, deeply analyzes the evolution of corporate financial crisis, evolution path, and the use of system dynamics modeling method to establish a financial early warning model. Finally, the model is proved to be scientific and feasible by example analysis, which provides theoretical guidance and method reference for enterprise financial early warning management. Firstly, this paper reviews the current research situation of enterprise financial early warning at home and abroad, and then puts forward the research ideas and methods of this paper. Secondly, it reveals the evolution mechanism of enterprise financial crisis. The logical relationship between stakeholder behavior and corporate financial crisis is discussed, and a bridge between micro individual behavior and macro financial crisis phenomenon is established. The key factors leading to financial crisis and the evolution path of enterprise financial crisis are analyzed in a comprehensive and systematic way, which provides a new theoretical basis for studying such complex problems as financial crisis early-warning management. Thirdly, an enterprise financial crisis early warning simulation model based on stakeholders is established in Vensim simulation environment. With the system dynamics as a tool, the causality between internal and external structure and variables of enterprise financial system is analyzed, and the formation path and evolution process of enterprise financial crisis are demonstrated. Finally, a paper making enterprise as a sample, the simulation model is applied to further verify the scientific and feasibility of the research results. It not only identifies the factors of financial crisis, but also provides a reference for the formulation and adjustment of financial policy through sensitivity analysis.
【學位授予單位】：江蘇師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F275

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