發(fā)布時間：2018-01-30 10:18

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人口年齡分布 離散程度 產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新　出處：《山東大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：本文通過研究人口年齡分布與企業(yè)產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新行為的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系去探尋人口年齡分布離散程度對產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新的影響,人口年齡分布離散程度和企業(yè)產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新投入是本文的兩個核心變量。正文分階段逐步聯(lián)系兩個核心變量,先將人口年齡離散程度內(nèi)化于人口分布函數(shù),并得到人口年齡離散程度與中間變量的等式關(guān)系;再通過人口分布函數(shù)與年齡差異化效用函數(shù)得到市場對新產(chǎn)品的預期需求,在不考慮新產(chǎn)品邊際成本的前提下,能夠得到包含中間變量的企業(yè)預期盈利最大化時的產(chǎn)量與盈利水平;之后利用創(chuàng)新的概率分布函數(shù)將創(chuàng)新投入與創(chuàng)新概率分布聯(lián)系起來,再利用連續(xù)貼現(xiàn)模型與Cournot模型導出了包含中間變量的企業(yè)產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新預期盈利現(xiàn)值;結(jié)合之前得出的人口年齡離散程度與中間變量的等式關(guān)系,能最終得到表示人口年齡離散程度與企業(yè)產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新投入兩者聯(lián)系的方程組;再利用MATLAB7.0軟件消去中間變量,得到兩核心變量的直接關(guān)系并作圖,結(jié)合圖組可以得出基于模型分析的結(jié)論;最后對模型進行部分拓展,將企業(yè)產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新行為整合為行業(yè)產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新行為。之后對搜集的數(shù)據(jù)集進行平穩(wěn)性檢驗、Hausman檢驗、固定效應模型回歸,驗證了理論模型的結(jié)果并得到最終結(jié)論:當人口年齡分布離散程度不高時,其增加對產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新有較強的刺激作用,當人口年齡分布離散程度較高并超過臨界值時,產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新會陷入低谷。目前我國人口年齡分布離散程度較低,尚處于且會長期處于人口年齡分布離散程度提升促進產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新的階段。另外,還就競爭程度、研發(fā)效率、實際利率等對產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新的影響進行了研究探討。本文的結(jié)論能夠?qū)ξ覈娜丝谡�、產(chǎn)業(yè)創(chuàng)新政策、知識產(chǎn)權(quán)保護政策等提供一些建議,有利于我國更好實施創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,早日邁出"中等收入陷阱",實現(xiàn)偉大的中國夢!本文的創(chuàng)新點有三:(1)研究角度新穎,創(chuàng)造性地從人口年齡分布離散程度出發(fā)來研究產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新,與之前文獻大都從廠商行為等供給側(cè)或收入水平、收入差距等需求側(cè)出發(fā)對產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新進行研究的方向不同,并結(jié)合人口年齡分布離散程度和企業(yè)產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新投入關(guān)系拓展出人口年齡分布離散程度對行業(yè)產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新的影響;文章結(jié)論同樣具有創(chuàng)新價值,提供了一種從人口年齡分布來考慮產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新的思路。(2)創(chuàng)造性構(gòu)建人口年齡分布的冪函數(shù)模型,并據(jù)此利用數(shù)學期望方法和分布函數(shù)對應的密度函數(shù)將人口分布離散程度與人口年齡分布函數(shù)對應起來,接著以此為基礎(chǔ)構(gòu)建起整個理論模型框架。(3)在處理數(shù)據(jù)上,對細分的人口年齡數(shù)據(jù)平滑化處理后模擬出近似的人口年齡分布,并據(jù)此進行計算2003-2013年人口年齡分布離散程度,為實證分析過程提供了數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the relationship between population age distribution and enterprise product innovation behavior to explore the effect of population age distribution dispersion on product innovation. The discrete degree of population age distribution and enterprise product innovation input are the two core variables in this paper. The equality relationship between population age dispersion and intermediate variable is obtained. Then through the population distribution function and the age difference utility function to obtain the market expected demand for the new product without considering the marginal cost of the new product. We can get the output and profit level of the expected profit maximization of the enterprise with intermediate variables. Then the innovation input and the innovation probability distribution are connected by the probability distribution function of innovation. Then using the continuous discount model and Cournot model to derive the expected profit present value of enterprise product innovation including intermediate variables; Combining the equation relation between population age dispersion degree and intermediate variable, we can get the equations which indicate the relationship between population age dispersion degree and enterprise product innovation input. Then the intermediate variable is eliminated by MATLAB7.0 software, and the direct relationship between the two core variables is obtained and the graph group is used to draw the conclusion based on the model analysis. Finally, the model is partially expanded to integrate the enterprise product innovation behavior into the industry product innovation behavior. Then the collected data sets are tested by Hausman test and fixed effect model regression. Verify the results of the theoretical model and get the final conclusion: when the dispersion of population age distribution is not high, its increase has a strong stimulating effect on product innovation. When the discrete degree of population age distribution is higher than the critical value, product innovation will fall into a trough. At present, the dispersion degree of population age distribution in China is relatively low. In addition, it is still in the stage of promoting product innovation in terms of the discrete degree of population age distribution and the degree of competition and R & D efficiency. The effect of real interest rate on product innovation is discussed. The conclusion of this paper can provide some suggestions for China's population policy, industrial innovation policy, intellectual property protection policy and so on. This will help our country better implement the strategy of innovation-driven development, step out the "middle-income trap" as soon as possible, and realize the great Chinese Dream! The innovation of this paper is 3: 1) the research angle is new and creative to study product innovation from the discrete degree of population age distribution, and most of the previous literatures are based on the supply-side or income level of firm behavior. The research direction of product innovation is different from the demand side such as income gap. Combined with the discrete degree of population age distribution and the relationship between enterprise product innovation investment, the influence of population age distribution dispersion degree on industry product innovation is extended. The conclusion of the paper is also of innovative value, which provides a creative power function model of population age distribution considering product innovation from the age distribution of population. On the basis of this, the discrete degree of population distribution and the population age distribution function are corresponded by the mathematical expectation method and the density function corresponding to the distribution function. Based on this, the whole theoretical model framework is constructed. (3) on the data processing, the approximate population age distribution is simulated after smoothing the subdivided population age data. The discrete degree of population age distribution from 2003 to 2013 is calculated, which provides a data basis for the empirical analysis.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924;F273.1

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