【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟不斷發(fā)展和相關(guān)的體制改革，在未來收入不確定和醫(yī)療、養(yǎng)老、住房等大額剛性支出不斷增加的情況下，我國家庭居民一直保持著“高儲蓄、低消費”的消費模式，較少采用跨期消費模式來實現(xiàn)即期消費，這對我國經(jīng)濟的增長是很不利的。特別是1997亞洲金融危以后，我國突然面臨著消費不足的現(xiàn)象，在這種情況下，為了擴大內(nèi)需、實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長，國家采用寬松的貨幣政策來刺激消費，制定了包括發(fā)展家庭借貸在內(nèi)的一系列經(jīng)濟措施。但是隨著我國家庭債務(wù)的迅速發(fā)展，我國消費率仍然比較低，并沒有出現(xiàn)提升的現(xiàn)象。家庭債務(wù)余額從1997年的172億元上升到2012年的10.4萬億，然而消費率從1997年的43%下降到2012年的32%，且在這16年間幾乎呈直線下降的趨勢，從而影響貨幣政策實施的有效性。因此從家庭借貸行為和居民消費行為這一微觀視角來探討其影響貨幣政策有效性的內(nèi)在機制是具有研究意義的。 本文首先對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)的經(jīng)典消費理論和貨幣政策有效性的理論進行回顧，，并綜合分析了是家庭借貸行為的內(nèi)涵及特征分析，其中包含家庭債務(wù)的含義、影響家庭債務(wù)的宏微觀因素，以及家庭債務(wù)總量、結(jié)構(gòu)的特征和與居民消費行為之間的特征分析；其次，在前三部分的理論基礎(chǔ)上分析家庭借貸消費行為對我國貨幣政策有效性的影響分析。其中包括貨幣政策傳導利率渠道、信貸渠道兩種渠道，通過這兩種機制渠道分析了對家庭借貸帶來的影響。除了家庭借貸與貨幣政策機制分析，還從我國居民消費規(guī)模量和消費行為特征兩方面對貨幣政策傳導的影響機制分析，得出了其兩個特征都阻礙了貨幣政策的傳導；第五部分是中國家庭借貸消費行為與貨幣政策的實證研究。包括變量選取、數(shù)據(jù)來源及其特征分析、各變量的描述性統(tǒng)計、用單位根、協(xié)整檢驗、VAR模型等進行實證分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣政策的實施雖然在一定程度上促進了我國家庭債務(wù)的增加，但是由于家庭債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)的原因沒有直接促進我國的消費，加上我國居民消費的特征阻礙了貨幣政策的傳導，因此貨幣政策在通過家庭債務(wù)的傳導過程中促進經(jīng)濟增長的效果并不是很明顯，使貨幣政策的有效性沒有很好的體現(xiàn)出來；最后一部分是根據(jù)前幾個部分分析中所涉及到的問題提出一系列有意義的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of China's economy and related institutional reforms, and with the uncertainty of future income and the increasing large and rigid expenditure on medical care, old-age care, housing, and so on, Chinese family residents have been maintaining "high savings". The consumption pattern of "low consumption" seldom uses the intertemporal consumption pattern to realize immediate consumption, which is very disadvantageous to the economic growth of our country. In particular, after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, China suddenly faced the phenomenon of insufficient consumption. Under such circumstances, in order to expand domestic demand and achieve economic growth, the state adopted loose monetary policies to stimulate consumption. A series of economic measures, including the development of household borrowing, were formulated. However, with the rapid development of household debt in China, the consumption rate is still relatively low. The balance of household debt rose from 17.2 billion yuan in 1997 to 10.4 trillion yuan in 2012, but the consumption rate fell from 43 percent in 1997 to 32 percent in 2012, and the trend was almost plummeted in the 16 years, which affected the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the internal mechanism of influencing the effectiveness of monetary policy from the microcosmic perspective of household borrowing behavior and resident consumption behavior. This paper first reviews the classical consumption theory and monetary policy validity theory at home and abroad, and comprehensively analyzes the connotation and characteristics of household borrowing behavior, including the meaning of household debt. The macro and micro factors affecting household debt, as well as the total amount of household debt, the characteristics of the structure and characteristics between household debt and consumer behavior. Secondly, Based on the theory of the first three parts, this paper analyzes the influence of household borrowing and consumption behavior on the effectiveness of monetary policy in China. Including the monetary policy transmission interest rate channel, the credit channel two channels, through these two kinds of mechanism channel has analyzed the influence to the household loan. In addition to the analysis of household lending and monetary policy mechanism, the influence mechanism of the consumption scale and consumption behavior on monetary policy transmission in China is analyzed, and it is concluded that both of the two characteristics hinder the transmission of monetary policy. The fifth part is an empirical study of Chinese household lending and consumption behavior and monetary policy. It includes variable selection, data source and its characteristic analysis, descriptive statistics of each variable, empirical analysis with unit root, cointegration test, VAR model, etc. It is found that the implementation of monetary policy has promoted the increase of household debt to a certain extent, but the structure of household debt has not directly promoted the consumption of our country, and the characteristics of consumption of Chinese residents have hindered the transmission of monetary policy. Therefore, the effect of monetary policy in promoting economic growth through the transmission of household debt is not obvious, and the effectiveness of monetary policy is not well reflected; The last part is to put forward a series of meaningful policy recommendations according to the problems involved in the previous part of the analysis.
【學位授予單位】：湘潭大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F822.0;F832.479

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