發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-05 14:16

【摘要】：發(fā)端于美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的次貸危機(jī)使得全球經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨自1929年大蕭條以來(lái)最大的一次危機(jī)。面對(duì)次貸危機(jī),我國(guó)開啟了4萬(wàn)億的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃,避免我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入衰退。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的推出,使得我國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資水平迅速提升,極大的穩(wěn)定了GDP的走勢(shì)。我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在本輪寬松政策中,獲得了較為明顯的發(fā)展,充分發(fā)揮了支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)的地位和影響。房地產(chǎn)的如火如茶造成了房?jī)r(jià)的節(jié)節(jié)攀升,一定程度上影響到了社會(huì)管理,成為了擺在中央政府面前的一道難題。 黨的十八大以來(lái),我國(guó)中央政府繼續(xù)維持了房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的信貸緊縮政策,從城鎮(zhèn)化著手,以棚戶區(qū)改造為主要手段,從而達(dá)到調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的目標(biāo)。作為商業(yè)銀行,緊跟宏觀政策是其本職工作。作為國(guó)有大型商業(yè)銀行,中國(guó)工商銀行在保證商業(yè)銀行盈利性的基礎(chǔ)上,緊跟國(guó)家政策導(dǎo)向,適時(shí)推出棚戶區(qū)改造貸款產(chǎn)品,優(yōu)化資源配置,推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。 目前的相關(guān)研究表明,以政府做主導(dǎo)的棚戶區(qū)改造有明顯的制度優(yōu)勢(shì),但占多數(shù)的是給出政策建議和制度保障,而沒(méi)有從銀行業(yè)務(wù)角度研究棚戶區(qū)改造,因此針對(duì)具體的棚戶區(qū)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行分析調(diào)查,具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。從銀行角度來(lái)看,判斷棚戶區(qū)項(xiàng)目的優(yōu)劣與否的核心,在于對(duì)項(xiàng)目本身的評(píng)估。具體來(lái)講就是根據(jù)項(xiàng)目的可行性研究報(bào)告,采用現(xiàn)金流量法對(duì)項(xiàng)目的借款人、項(xiàng)目情況、盈利能力、償債能力進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),為科學(xué)決策提供依據(jù)。其中,償債能力評(píng)價(jià)是重中之重,從拆遷進(jìn)度、工程成本、資金籌集、資金成本、配套設(shè)施建設(shè)、項(xiàng)目收益等多個(gè)方面進(jìn)行合理預(yù)測(cè)。在假設(shè)選取上,通常采用歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)、市場(chǎng)公允價(jià)值、可比項(xiàng)目或可比公司等方法確認(rèn),力爭(zhēng)選取合理的假設(shè)。在完成基準(zhǔn)項(xiàng)目評(píng)估的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)行敏感性分析,尋找關(guān)鍵敏感指標(biāo),并針對(duì)關(guān)鍵敏感指標(biāo)進(jìn)行情景測(cè)試。通常選取最好和最差的情景進(jìn)行測(cè)試,以保證在最大壓力的情景下銀行仍有控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力。 在經(jīng)濟(jì)下行期,詳盡可靠的盡職調(diào)查對(duì)于銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理起著重要的作用。因此,加強(qiáng)對(duì)項(xiàng)目評(píng)估為核心的盡職調(diào)查的研究,有重要意義。
[Abstract]:The subprime mortgage crisis, which began in the U.S. housing market, has left the global economy facing its biggest crisis since the Great Depression of 1929. In the face of the subprime mortgage crisis, China has launched a $4 trillion economic stimulus plan to avoid a recession. With the introduction of the economic stimulus plan, the level of fixed asset investment in China has rapidly increased, greatly stabilizing the trend of GDP. In this round of loose policy, the real estate industry of our country has got more obvious development, giving full play to the status and influence of the pillar industry. The fire of real estate has caused the price of house price to climb, which has affected the social management to some extent, and has become a difficult problem in front of the central government. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the central government has continued to maintain the credit tightening policy of the real estate industry, starting from the urbanization, taking the shantytown transformation as the main means, so as to achieve the goal of readjusting the economic structure. As a commercial bank, it is its duty to keep up with macro policy. As a large state-owned commercial bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, on the basis of ensuring the profitability of the commercial bank, closely follows the guidance of the national policy, timely introduces the shantytown transformation loan products, optimizes the allocation of resources, and promotes economic development. The current relevant studies show that the transformation of shantytowns led by the government has obvious institutional advantages, but most of them give policy recommendations and institutional safeguards, and do not study shantytown reconstruction from the perspective of banking business. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to analyze and investigate the specific shantytown projects. From the bank point of view, the core of judging the shantytown project lies in the evaluation of the project itself. Specifically, according to the feasibility study report of the project, the cash flow method is used to evaluate the borrower, the project situation, the profitability and the solvency of the project, which provides the basis for scientific decision-making. Among them, the evaluation of solvency is the most important, from the demolition progress, project cost, fund raising, capital cost, supporting facilities construction, project income and other aspects of reasonable prediction. In the selection of assumptions, historical experience data, market fair value, comparable items or comparable companies are usually used to confirm, and strive to select reasonable assumptions. Based on the completion of the baseline project evaluation, sensitivity analysis is carried out to find key sensitive indicators, and scenario tests are carried out for the key sensitive indicators. The best and worst scenarios are usually tested to ensure that banks are still able to control risk under the most stressful scenario. During the economic downturn, thorough and reliable due diligence plays an important role in risk management of banks. Therefore, it is of great significance to strengthen the research of due diligence which is the core of project evaluation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.2;F832.4

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