【摘要】：近年來，住宅市場(chǎng)蓬勃發(fā)展的同時(shí)出現(xiàn)了一些問題，其中的主要問題為商品住房?jī)r(jià)格的上漲幅度大大超過了消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買能力，致使一些中低消費(fèi)人群的住房需求得不到滿足。為了解決中低消費(fèi)人群的住房問題以及控制商品住房?jī)r(jià)格的上漲幅度，國(guó)家和地方政府紛紛出臺(tái)各種政策進(jìn)行調(diào)控，保障性住房隨之發(fā)展加速。然而，保障性住房的建設(shè)并不是越多越好，其發(fā)展應(yīng)與商品住房市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展相適應(yīng)，達(dá)到協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，進(jìn)而促使整個(gè)住宅市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展。 本文在借鑒前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了判斷保障性住房和商品住房協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的具體思路，即在滿足需求總量的前提下，通過合理調(diào)整保障性住房和商品住房的供給比例，進(jìn)而影響商品住房的價(jià)格，，取得合理的房?jī)r(jià)收入比。緊接著以供需理論、效率理論和保障理論作為主要理論支撐，在深入分析了影響住宅市場(chǎng)供給、需求及價(jià)格的各種因素后，綜合考慮了保障性住房和商品住房之間的互動(dòng)機(jī)理，根據(jù)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)理論定義各變量及判斷變量的性質(zhì)，在建立住宅市場(chǎng)系統(tǒng)因果反饋圖的基礎(chǔ)上建立了住宅市場(chǎng)系統(tǒng)流圖，完成了住宅市場(chǎng)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)理論模型構(gòu)建。隨后，以西安市為例，采用2003年相應(yīng)數(shù)值作為變量的初始值，運(yùn)行已建立的住宅市場(chǎng)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型，對(duì)2003年-2020年西安市住宅市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行了模擬仿真，并對(duì)模型的有效性進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)；在此基礎(chǔ)上，預(yù)測(cè)了2014-2020年的西安市住宅市場(chǎng)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，并且通過改變首付比例、融資渠道、政府支持程度、保障性住房的供給量等可控變量進(jìn)行大量模擬仿真，來確定各個(gè)變量的改變對(duì)系統(tǒng)中其他變量的影響，最終確定保障性住房和商品住房協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展時(shí)，二者的供給比例為21.88%:78.12%。根據(jù)文章的研究結(jié)論，提出可以通過合理控制保障性住房供給量、提高政府支持程度與鼓勵(lì)企業(yè)參與建設(shè)保障性住房、調(diào)控商品住房供給量以及將部分商品住房轉(zhuǎn)化為保障性住房等政策來促進(jìn)保障性住房和商品住房協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In recent years, some problems have emerged while the housing market is booming. The main problem is that the increase of commodity housing price greatly exceeds the purchasing ability of consumers, which leads to the unsatisfied housing demand of some middle and low consuming people. In order to solve the housing problem of middle and low consuming people and to control the rise of commodity housing prices, the government and local governments have issued various policies to regulate and control, and the development of affordable housing has been accelerated. However, the construction of indemnificatory housing is not as much as possible. Its development should be adapted to the development of commodity housing market to achieve harmonious development, and then promote the healthy development of the whole housing market. On the basis of previous studies, this paper puts forward a concrete way of thinking to judge the harmonious development of affordable housing and commodity housing, that is, on the premise of satisfying the total demand, the supply ratio of affordable housing and commodity housing is adjusted reasonably. And then affect the price of commodity housing, to obtain a reasonable ratio of house prices to income. Then, taking the supply and demand theory, efficiency theory and security theory as the main theoretical support, after deeply analyzing the various factors affecting the supply, demand and price of the housing market, the interactive mechanism between the indemnificatory housing and the commodity housing is considered synthetically. According to the theory of system dynamics, this paper defines the properties of variables and judgment variables, establishes the system flow chart of residential market system on the basis of establishing the system causality feedback diagram of residential market, and completes the theoretical model of housing market system dynamics. Then, taking Xi'an as an example, using the corresponding value of 2003 as the initial value of the variable, running the established system dynamics model of housing market, the housing market of Xi'an from 2003 to 2020 is simulated and simulated. The validity of the model is tested, on the basis of which, the trend of housing market in Xi'an from 2014-2020 is forecasted, and the degree of government support by changing the proportion of down payment, financing channels, and the degree of government support is predicted. A large number of controlled variables, such as the supply of affordable housing, are simulated to determine the influence of the change of each variable on other variables in the system. Finally, when the supportable housing and commodity housing develop harmoniously, the supply ratio of them is 21.88: 78.12. According to the conclusion of the paper, it is suggested that the supply of affordable housing can be controlled reasonably, the degree of government support can be improved and enterprises should be encouraged to participate in the construction of affordable housing. The policies of regulating the supply of commodity housing and transforming some commodity housing into affordable housing promote the harmonious development of affordable housing and commodity housing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;N941.3

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