本文選題：房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng) + 非均衡理論��； 參考：《西安建筑科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：住房商品化改革實(shí)施以來，佛山房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)在快速發(fā)展的同時(shí)也存在一些深層次的癥結(jié)，出現(xiàn)了房價(jià)上漲迅猛、供需結(jié)構(gòu)不合理、空置率過高等問題，這說明佛山房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)存在比較嚴(yán)重的非均衡現(xiàn)象。房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)過度的非均衡會(huì)導(dǎo)致資源配置錯(cuò)位，最終影響國計(jì)民生和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定。因此，應(yīng)深入分析佛山房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的非均衡運(yùn)行機(jī)理并采取有針對(duì)性的調(diào)控措施，以減小市場(chǎng)的非均衡程度，促進(jìn)佛山房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康、穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展。 本文以佛山房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)為研究對(duì)象，通過對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的分析，得出影響市場(chǎng)供求的主要因素。然后在分析對(duì)比三種非均衡計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型的基礎(chǔ)上，選取雙曲線聚合模型，并結(jié)合佛山房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的供求影響因素和現(xiàn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)指標(biāo)，構(gòu)建佛山房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)非均衡計(jì)量模型。接著對(duì)佛山房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)總量非均衡進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，通過佛山市1998年~2012年的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，應(yīng)用Eviews6.0軟件對(duì)模型進(jìn)行參數(shù)估計(jì)，通過修正后的模型，確定影響因素對(duì)市場(chǎng)供求的影響程度，計(jì)算市場(chǎng)的有效需求、有效供給和非均衡度，接著通過統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)非均衡進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。結(jié)果表明，，在總量非均衡方面，研究區(qū)間內(nèi)市場(chǎng)非均衡度整體經(jīng)歷了由負(fù)到正的變化；在結(jié)構(gòu)非均衡方面，佛山房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)具有產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)性非均衡和層次結(jié)構(gòu)性非均衡的特征。最后，根據(jù)實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果，結(jié)合非均衡調(diào)控理論，分別針對(duì)市場(chǎng)總量和結(jié)構(gòu)兩方面提出了宏觀調(diào)控建議。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of housing commercialization reform, the Foshan real estate market has also experienced some deep problems, such as the rapid development of the real estate market, the rapid rise in housing prices, the irrational structure of supply and demand, and the high vacancy rate. This shows that Foshan real estate market exists more serious non-equilibrium phenomenon. The excessive disequilibrium of real estate market will lead to misallocation of resources, which will ultimately affect the national economy and people's livelihood and social stability. Therefore, we should deeply analyze the mechanism of non-equilibrium operation of Foshan real estate market and take targeted measures to reduce the non-equilibrium degree of the market and promote the healthy and stable development of Foshan real estate market. This article takes Foshan real estate market as the research object, through the analysis to the real estate market, obtains the main factor which affects the market supply and demand. Then, on the basis of analyzing and comparing three kinds of non-equilibrium econometric models, the hyperbolic aggregate model is selected, and combining with the influencing factors of supply and demand of Foshan real estate market and the current statistical index, the non-equilibrium econometric model of Foshan real estate market is constructed. Secondly, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the disequilibrium of Foshan real estate market. Through the statistical data of Foshan City from 1998 to 2012, this paper uses Eviews6.0 software to estimate the parameters of the model, and through the revised model, The influence degree of influencing factors on market supply and demand is determined, and the effective demand, effective supply and disequilibrium degree of market are calculated, and then the disequilibrium of market structure is analyzed empirically by statistical data. The results show that the total disequilibrium of the market has changed from negative to positive, and the structural disequilibrium of Foshan real estate market has the characteristics of product structural disequilibrium and hierarchical structural disequilibrium. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, combined with the theory of non-equilibrium regulation, this paper puts forward some macro-control suggestions on the two aspects of market aggregate and structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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