本文選題：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在改革開(kāi)放以后得到了迅速發(fā)展，已經(jīng)成為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要支柱，也帶動(dòng)了相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。但我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)目前仍處于初級(jí)階段，許多房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商缺乏風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意識(shí)，甚至存在違規(guī)操作行為，使房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)在營(yíng)運(yùn)過(guò)程中存在巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，，也不利于地產(chǎn)行業(yè)長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展。此外還存在著開(kāi)發(fā)周期較長(zhǎng)、土地具有不可移動(dòng)性、投資巨大等因素所導(dǎo)致的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)要實(shí)現(xiàn)集約化與精細(xì)化發(fā)展，就必須要對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行科學(xué)評(píng)估與有效監(jiān)控。 有鑒于此，本文通過(guò)分析現(xiàn)狀與研究文獻(xiàn)，應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與管理學(xué)理論分析房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，認(rèn)為主要來(lái)源于土地政策變更、經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)波動(dòng)、開(kāi)發(fā)時(shí)機(jī)選擇、開(kāi)發(fā)周期等方面，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)種類主要包括市場(chǎng)定位風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、自然環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、政治經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、投資時(shí)機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等，并分析地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的獨(dú)特特點(diǎn)。在此基礎(chǔ)上，設(shè)計(jì)了房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的指標(biāo)體系，包括技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等五個(gè)方面，并應(yīng)用層次分析法（AHP）建立了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型。將該評(píng)估模型應(yīng)用于具體案例實(shí)踐，分析其可行性，最后得出結(jié)論該風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型切實(shí)有效。本文最后提出了房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控的建議，主要包括強(qiáng)化施工安全管理、強(qiáng)化人力資源管理、減少成本支出、關(guān)注土地政策等。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry has developed rapidly after the reform and opening up, has become an important pillar of the national economy, has also led to the development of related industries and regional economy. However, the real estate market in our country is still in its initial stage. Many real estate developers lack the awareness of risk and even violate the regulations, which makes the real estate enterprises have huge risks in the course of operation, and is not conducive to the long-term development of the real estate industry. In addition, there is a long development period. The risk caused by land immobility and huge investment must be scientifically evaluated and effectively monitored in order to realize intensive and fine development of real estate enterprises. In view of this, through analyzing the present situation and the research literature, applying the theory of economics and management to analyze the risk of real estate, this paper thinks that it mainly comes from the change of land policy, the fluctuation of economic situation, the choice of development opportunity, the development cycle and so on. The types of risks include market positioning risk, natural environment risk, political and economic risk, investment opportunity risk, competition risk and so on. The index system of real estate risk evaluation is designed, which includes five aspects: technical risk, management risk, economic environment risk and policy risk. A risk assessment model is established by using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The model is applied to practical cases and its feasibility is analyzed. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions for risk prevention and control of real estate risk development, including strengthening construction safety management, strengthening human resource management, reducing cost and expenditure, paying attention to land policy and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.233.46

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