發(fā)布時間：2018-01-07 05:06

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：機構(gòu)投資者持股與業(yè)績預(yù)告披露質(zhì)量的關(guān)系研究　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 管理層業(yè)績預(yù)告 披露質(zhì)量 機構(gòu)投資者 持股情況

【摘要】：隨著我國資本市場的發(fā)展及業(yè)績預(yù)告制度的發(fā)展,管理層業(yè)績預(yù)告信息披露得到越來越多投資者的關(guān)注,而機構(gòu)投資者作為資本市場投資者中不可或缺的一部分,對于管理層業(yè)績預(yù)告的披露信息也更為關(guān)注。相對于其他投資者,機構(gòu)投資者擁有充足的資金、人脈、專業(yè)優(yōu)勢以及信息分析處理能力,通過“用手投票”和“用腳投票”監(jiān)督和影響上市公司的信息披露質(zhì)量。研究機構(gòu)投資者持股情況對業(yè)績預(yù)告披露質(zhì)量的影響可以幫助廣大中小投資者“搭順風車”,使其在做出投資決策時方向更明確,同時也能夠促進公司治理的改善,優(yōu)化資本市場資源配置,促進資本市場的有效運轉(zhuǎn)。 本文以管理層業(yè)績預(yù)告披露情況為切入點,在研究國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻及理論基礎(chǔ)、制度背景后,采用了我國2008年-2012年上證主板和深證主板A股的3476家發(fā)布業(yè)績預(yù)告的上市公司作為樣本,選取其每年年末數(shù)據(jù)進行分析,探討機構(gòu)投資者持股的各種情況與管理層業(yè)績預(yù)告披露質(zhì)量的相關(guān)性。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文從三個維度出發(fā),即業(yè)績預(yù)告形式精度、業(yè)績預(yù)告誤差、業(yè)績預(yù)告及時性,針對每個維度分別提出6個假設(shè),共計18個假設(shè)。本文選取業(yè)績預(yù)告披露的形式精度、誤差和及時性作為被解釋變量,分別對其進行定義,而機構(gòu)投資者方面則選取了機構(gòu)投資者持股與否、機構(gòu)投資者持股比例、基金持股比例、機構(gòu)投資者持股的穩(wěn)定性、前十大股東中機構(gòu)投資者的數(shù)量以及境外合格機構(gòu)投資者持股比例作為解釋變量,同時選取了若干控制變量,包括公司規(guī)模、財務(wù)風險、現(xiàn)金流量與營業(yè)收入相關(guān)程度、市賬比、盈余波動性、會計師事務(wù)所類型,建立了多元線性回歸模型對其進行描述性統(tǒng)計分析、相關(guān)性分析和回歸分析。 實證分析結(jié)果顯示,本文所提出的共計18個假設(shè)中有13個得到驗證。由研究結(jié)果可以看出：就整體而言,機構(gòu)投資者持股情況對業(yè)績預(yù)告披露質(zhì)量有一定的顯著影響。尤其是基金持股比例、前十大股東中機構(gòu)投資者持股比例與業(yè)績預(yù)告的形式精度、誤差、及時性均呈現(xiàn)出小于5%的顯著相關(guān)性,機構(gòu)投資者持股的穩(wěn)定性與業(yè)績預(yù)告披露及時性、誤差呈現(xiàn)出小于5%的顯著相關(guān)性。在實證分析結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上,本文在最后一章就研究結(jié)果和我國資本市場發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀提出一些對策建議,同時針對研究的過程中存在的不足之處進行了研究拓展,以期對未來的研究發(fā)展有所幫助,從而更好地促進我國資本市場的健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the development of capital market and performance forecasting system in China, more and more investors pay attention to the disclosure of management performance forecast information. As an indispensable part of the capital market investors, institutional investors pay more attention to the disclosure of management performance forecast. Compared with other investors, institutional investors have sufficient funds and contacts. Professional advantage and information analysis and processing ability. By "voting with hands" and "voting with feet" to monitor and influence the quality of information disclosure of listed companies. Take a ride. " At the same time, it can promote the improvement of corporate governance, optimize the allocation of capital market resources, and promote the effective operation of capital market. In this paper, the management performance notice disclosure as a starting point, in the study of domestic and foreign literature and theoretical basis, system background. From 2008 to 2012, 3476 listed companies of Shanghai main Board and Shenzhen main Board were selected as samples to analyze the annual annual data. On the basis of this, this paper starts from three dimensions, that is, the precision of performance forecast form and the error of performance forecast. Performance forecast timeliness, for each dimension of 6 assumptions, a total of 18 hypotheses. This paper selects the formal accuracy of performance notice disclosure, error and timeliness as explained variables, respectively to define it. On the other hand, institutional investors choose whether institutional investors hold shares or not, the proportion of institutional investors holding shares, the proportion of funds holding shares, and the stability of institutional investors' holdings. The number of institutional investors in the top 10 shareholders and the proportion of foreign qualified institutional investors are taken as explanatory variables. At the same time, a number of control variables are selected, including the size of the company, financial risk. The relationship between cash flow and operating income, market / book ratio, earnings volatility and accounting firm type is analyzed by using a multivariate linear regression model for descriptive statistical analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis. The empirical results show that 13 of the 18 hypotheses proposed in this paper have been verified. From the results of the study, we can see: on the whole. Institutional investor's stock holding situation has a certain significant influence on the quality of performance forecast disclosure, especially the proportion of fund shareholding, the formal accuracy and error of institutional investor's shareholding proportion and performance forecast among the top ten shareholders. Timeliness shows significant correlation with less than 5%, institutional investor stock holding stability and timeliness of performance announcement, error is less than 5%. Based on the results of empirical analysis. In the last chapter, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on the research results and the current situation of the development of the capital market in our country. At the same time, the author develops the research on the deficiencies in the course of the research. In order to help the future research and development, and better promote the healthy development of China's capital market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F275;F832.51

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