外債被認(rèn)為是發(fā)展中國家的一個(gè)重要資金。從20世紀(jì)50年代后期,經(jīng)常賬戶赤字被認(rèn)為是正常的。鼓勵(lì)面臨經(jīng)常賬戶赤字的國家向國際社會借款,以促進(jìn)其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。在過去五十年中,外債問題是吉爾吉斯斯坦等發(fā)展中國家面臨的主要挑戰(zhàn)之一。外債及其償還成為發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和發(fā)展的障礙。在過去三十年中,人們注意到外債是許多國家投資和增長業(yè)績下降的主要原因。這種外債就像對子孫后代的一種不利的稅收,他們不得不無償支付。根據(jù)世界銀行的數(shù)據(jù),發(fā)展中國家的外債總額在1990-2002年期間從4114億美元增加到5234億美元（WDI 2004）。這對一個(gè)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長造成了巨大的阻礙,因?yàn)橥鈧母呃⒅Ц�、沉重的公共開支和償還債務(wù)的外匯。此外,這種外債與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)密切相關(guān),并界定了國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、實(shí)際利率、通貨膨脹等方面的特殊關(guān)系。外部債務(wù)政策方向的急劇變化可能導(dǎo)致債務(wù)增長、增加通貨膨脹、降低國家貨幣的可兌換性,并最終破壞該國在本國人口面前的信譽(yù)。吉爾吉斯斯坦名義上的公共和公共擔(dān)保（PPG）外債從2006年的100%下降到2009年的70%,2010年進(jìn)一步下降到42%。這種下降主要是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度加快和人民幣名義升值的... 

【文章來源】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)黑龍江省 211工程院校 985工程院校

【文章頁數(shù)】：73 頁

【學(xué)位級別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
摘要
Abstract
Chapter 1 Introduction
    1.1 Research background
        1.1.1 Overview of Kyrgyz Republic Debt
        1.1.2 Dynamics and Structure of the External Debt of the Kyrgyz Republic
        1.1.3 Macroeconomic policies and economic performance in 2006 -2016
        1.1.4 Baseline Macroeconomic Assumptions
    1.2 Research purpose and significance
    1.3 Research inside and outside of country and analysis
        1.3.1 Research abroad
        1.3.2 Research at home
        1.3.3 Analysis of Literature Review inside and outside of Coun try
    1.4 Main research contents and methods
        1.4.1 Research contents
        1.4.2 Research methods
Chapter 2 Theoretical aspects and characteristics of the External Debt and Macro Economy
    2.1 Concept and essence of the external debt of the country
    2.2 Debt indicators and additional macroeconomic variables
        2.2.1 Debt indicators
        2.2.2 Macro economic variables
    2.3 Relationship between external debt and macro economy
    2.4 Summary of this chapter
Chapter 3 Methodology Approaches and Data Analysis
    3.1 Research Design
    3.2 Methodology
        3.2.1 Stationarity and Non-Stationarity series
        3.2.2 Unit root tests
        3.2.3 Cointegration test
        3.2.4 Granger Causality test
        3.2.5 Model specification
    3.3 Data source and selection
    3.4 Summary of this chapter
Chapter4 Empirical results, conclusion and discuss
    4.1 Unit root, Cointegration and KPSS results
        4.1.1 Results of modified model （ Zeaiter）
        4.1.2 VAR model analysis results
    4.2 Analysis of Granger Causality Test
        4.2.1 Results of first model （Results of modified model Zeaiter）
        4.2.2 Results of second model （VAR model analysis Results）
    4.3 The results of the research analysis
    4.4 Policy implication
    4.5 Summary of this chapter
Conclusions
References
Acknowledgements
Resume



本文編號：2905923