【摘要】：文章以動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型作為基本分析框架,構(gòu)建一個(gè)帶有時(shí)變摩擦的實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期(RBC)模型。在考慮經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)變化的前提下,使用經(jīng)濟(jì)周期測(cè)度(BCA)模型對(duì)1978—2015年我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)特征進(jìn)行研究和引起波動(dòng)的因素進(jìn)行分解,實(shí)證結(jié)果表明:1993年是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)變化的斷點(diǎn),1978—1992年我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)主要受技術(shù)沖擊影響,其他的沖擊因素具有緩解經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的作用;1993—2015年,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)主要受投資沖擊的影響,而技術(shù)沖擊、勞動(dòng)沖擊和外部沖擊也起到部分影響;改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)源由從單一波動(dòng)源向多種沖擊共同作用的趨勢(shì)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a real economic cycle (RBC) model with time-varying friction is constructed by using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as the basic analysis framework. On the premise of considering the change of economic structure, the (BCA) model of economic cycle measure is used to study the characteristics of macroeconomic fluctuations in China from 1978 to 2015 and decompose the factors causing fluctuations. The empirical results show that 1993 is the breakpoint of the structural change of China's economic system. From 1978 to 1992, the economic fluctuations in China are mainly affected by technological shocks, and other shock factors can alleviate the economic fluctuations. From 1993 to 2015, China's economic fluctuations were mainly affected by investment shocks, while technological shocks, labor shocks and external shocks also played a partial role. Since the reform and opening up, the economic fluctuation source of our country has developed from a single fluctuation source to a variety of shocks.
【作者單位】： 暨南大學(xué)深圳旅游學(xué)院;四川大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(71473169;71473168)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F124.8
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本文編號(hào)：2485648