【摘要】：過去30多年廣東作為中國改革開放的先行者，取得舉世矚目的發(fā)展成就。廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的驅(qū)動因素是什么？它們各自的貢獻(xiàn)份額有多大？廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的前景如何？科學(xué)地回答這些問題，對于廣東總結(jié)發(fā)展經(jīng)驗、挖掘增長潛力、實現(xiàn)更大發(fā)展具有重要的意義。 本文根據(jù)內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論，通過建立包含人力資本的Cobb-Douglas生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，并引入技術(shù)進(jìn)步、制度變革和結(jié)構(gòu)變動的變量，分析了1978-2012年廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的驅(qū)動因素。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)：要素投入、人力資本溢出、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、制度變遷和結(jié)構(gòu)變化是過去30多年驅(qū)動廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要因素。資本投入、勞動力投入、勞動力素質(zhì)提高、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、市場化改革的推進(jìn)、貿(mào)易開放度的提升、城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化程度的提高，均對廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有顯著的促進(jìn)效應(yīng)。 本文通過核算分析進(jìn)一步發(fā)現(xiàn)：廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)增長依然屬于要素驅(qū)動型增長，資本投入對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的驅(qū)動作用尤為突出。1978-2012年要素投入對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的平均貢獻(xiàn)份額達(dá)到71.70%，其中資本投入的平均貢獻(xiàn)份額為61.42%，勞動力數(shù)量投入的貢獻(xiàn)份額穩(wěn)定在10%左右。全要素生產(chǎn)率貢獻(xiàn)突出，1978-2012年全要素生產(chǎn)率對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的平均貢獻(xiàn)份額達(dá)到28.30%，表明改革開放以來廣東的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長并不是“沒有全要素生產(chǎn)率的提高”（Krugman，1994）。勞動力質(zhì)量提高、技術(shù)進(jìn)步的驅(qū)動作用更加明顯，1978-2012年平均貢獻(xiàn)份額分別達(dá)到9.31%和6.55%，成為促進(jìn)廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要力量。制度變革和結(jié)構(gòu)變動的貢獻(xiàn)份額有所下降。 本文還在預(yù)測廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)增長驅(qū)動因素未來變動趨勢的基礎(chǔ)上，分析廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展前景。預(yù)計廣東經(jīng)濟(jì)2013-2025年年均增長率為8.47%，在教育投入和科技研發(fā)力度加大，，城鎮(zhèn)化持續(xù)推進(jìn)的樂觀情景下，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率可以達(dá)到9.42%。
[Abstract]:Guangdong, as a forerunner of China's reform and opening up in the past 30 years, has made remarkable achievements in development. What are the drivers of Guangdong's economic growth? What are their share of their contributions? What is the prospect of Guangdong's economic growth? To answer these questions scientifically is of great significance for Guangdong to sum up its development experience, tap its growth potential and realize greater development. Based on the endogenous economic growth theory, this paper analyzes the driving factors of Guangdong's economic growth from 1978 to 2012 by establishing the Cobb-Douglas production function including human capital and introducing the variables of technological progress, institutional change and structural change. The results show that factor input, human capital spillover, technological progress, institutional change and structural change are the important factors driving Guangdong's economic growth in the past 30 years. The investment of capital, the improvement of labor quality, the progress of technology, the promotion of market-oriented reform, the promotion of trade openness, the improvement of urbanization and industrialization, all have significant promoting effects on Guangdong's economic growth. Through the analysis of accounting, this paper further finds that Guangdong's economic growth still belongs to the factor-driven growth. Capital investment played a particularly important role in driving economic growth. In 1978-2012, the average contribution share of factor investment to economic growth reached 71.70%, of which the average contribution share of capital investment was 61.42%. The contribution share of labor force input is stable at about 10%. The contribution of TFP to economic growth reached 28.30% in 1978-2012, indicating that the economic growth of Guangdong Province since the reform and opening-up was not "without the increase of TFP" (Krugman,1994). In 1978-2012, the average contribution share reached 9.31% and 6.55% respectively, which became an important force to promote Guangdong's economic growth. The contribution share of institutional change and structural change has declined. On the basis of forecasting the trend of the driving factors of Guangdong's economic growth in the future, this paper analyzes the development prospects of Guangdong's economy. Guangdong's economy is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 8.47 percent between 2013 and 2025. Under the optimistic scenario of increasing investment in education, scientific and technological research and development, and continued urbanization, the economic growth rate could reach 9.42 percent.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127

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