我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構匹配程度的分析
發(fā)布時間：2019-03-18 10:38
【摘要】：盡管我國經(jīng)濟實現(xiàn)了30多年的快速增長,但由于龐大的人口規(guī)模,長期以來我國一直面臨著巨大的就業(yè)壓力。雖然以加工貿(mào)易為主的出口導向型經(jīng)濟增長模式極大地改善了我國農(nóng)村剩余勞動力的就業(yè)狀況,但長期以來我國經(jīng)濟增長的就業(yè)彈性不高,而且呈波動下降趨勢。本文試圖從我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構變動的相互關系著手,研究經(jīng)濟增長、經(jīng)濟結構變化與就業(yè)的關系。提出現(xiàn)階段產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構變動之間缺乏協(xié)調(diào)性是影響就業(yè)的主要原因之一。 通過計算三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構之間的結構偏離度、相關系數(shù)、協(xié)調(diào)系數(shù)以及就業(yè)彈性等指標,本文深入分析了我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構之間的互動關系,提出兩者之間存在嚴重的不協(xié)調(diào)狀況,這種不協(xié)調(diào)變動的關系抑制了我國經(jīng)濟的快速增長帶動就業(yè)擴張的效應。之后,基于全國及31省市產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構相關數(shù)據(jù)的實證分析,討論了兩者間不協(xié)調(diào)變動的原因。最后,提出下一階段促進就業(yè)的相關政策建議。 本文首先針對全國1978-2012年間三次產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重與就業(yè)比重變化的相關數(shù)據(jù)計算上述四個指標。分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：在此期間,我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構之間結構偏離度在逐漸下降,且協(xié)調(diào)系數(shù)也在逐漸上升,表明兩者之間的不均衡程度正在逐漸減弱。但是,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)比重一直大于其產(chǎn)值比重,說明中國農(nóng)村仍然滯留著大量的剩余勞動力；第二、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)比重均小于其產(chǎn)值比重,說明二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)還有很大的就業(yè)空間,尤其是第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)彈性較大,可以吸納更多的勞動力。 其次,本文分析了1990-2010年間全國31省市產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構變動的相關數(shù)據(jù)。通過構建面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,試圖找出影響兩者間結構偏離度、協(xié)調(diào)系數(shù)以及就業(yè)彈性的因素。發(fā)現(xiàn),東部地區(qū)兩者間的變動關系較均衡,中部次之,而西部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構的不均衡現(xiàn)象最為嚴重。在此基礎上,分析產(chǎn)值比重與就業(yè)比重偏離的原因,以及影響產(chǎn)業(yè)吸納就業(yè)能力大小的因素。 本文從總量和結構兩方面分別對我國改革開放以來產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構變化的互動關系進行了分析,提出兩者間存在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的階段性特征以及存在東、中、西部間的地域差異；基于對總量和地區(qū)間產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構變動不協(xié)調(diào)的影響因素分析,提出相關改善產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與就業(yè)結構變動協(xié)調(diào)關系、促進就業(yè)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Although our country economy has achieved more than 30 years of rapid growth, but because of the huge population size, our country has been faced with huge employment pressure for a long time. Although the export-oriented economic growth model based on processing trade has greatly improved the employment situation of the rural surplus labor force in China, the employment elasticity of our country's economic growth has not been high for a long time, and it shows the trend of fluctuation and decline. This paper attempts to study the relationship between economic growth, economic structure change and employment from the relationship between industrial structure and employment structure change in China. It is pointed out that the lack of coordination between industrial structure and employment structure is one of the main reasons that affect employment. By calculating the structural deviation, correlation coefficient, coordination coefficient and employment elasticity between the three industrial structures and the employment structure, this paper deeply analyzes the interactive relationship between the industrial structure and the employment structure in China. It is pointed out that there is a serious incoordination between the two, which inhibits the effect of rapid economic growth leading to employment expansion in China. After that, based on the empirical analysis of industrial structure and employment structure in China and 31 provinces and cities, this paper discusses the reasons why they do not change harmoniously. Finally, put forward the next stage to promote employment related policy recommendations. In this paper, we first calculate the above four indexes according to the relative data of the proportion of output value of three industries and the proportion of employment in China in 1978 / 2012. It is found that during this period, the degree of deviation between industrial structure and employment structure in China is gradually decreasing, and the coordination coefficient is also gradually increasing, indicating that the degree of imbalance between the two is gradually weakening. However, the proportion of employment in the primary industry has always been larger than the proportion of its output value, indicating that there is still a large amount of surplus labor in the rural areas of China. Second, the employment ratio of the tertiary industry is smaller than that of its output value, which indicates that there is still a lot of employment space for the secondary and tertiary industries, especially the employment elasticity of the tertiary industry, which can absorb more labor force. Secondly, this paper analyzes the industrial structure and employment structure of 31 provinces and cities in China in 1990-2010. By constructing the panel data model, this paper tries to find out the factors that affect the structural deviation, coordination coefficient and employment elasticity between the two. It is found that the dynamic relationship between the two is more balanced in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and the imbalance between industrial structure and employment structure is the most serious in the western region. On this basis, this paper analyzes the reasons for the deviation between the proportion of output value and the proportion of employment, as well as the factors that affect the ability of industry to absorb employment. This paper analyzes the interactive relationship between industrial structure and employment structure since the reform and opening-up in China from the aspects of total quantity and structure, and points out that there are stages of economic development between the two, and that they exist in the east and in the middle. The regional differences among the western regions; Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of the disharmony between the total quantity and the inter-regional industrial structure and employment structure, some policy suggestions are put forward to improve the harmonious relationship between the industrial structure and the employment structure change and promote employment.
【學位授予單位】：廈門大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F121.3;F249.21
本文編號：2442786
[Abstract]:Although our country economy has achieved more than 30 years of rapid growth, but because of the huge population size, our country has been faced with huge employment pressure for a long time. Although the export-oriented economic growth model based on processing trade has greatly improved the employment situation of the rural surplus labor force in China, the employment elasticity of our country's economic growth has not been high for a long time, and it shows the trend of fluctuation and decline. This paper attempts to study the relationship between economic growth, economic structure change and employment from the relationship between industrial structure and employment structure change in China. It is pointed out that the lack of coordination between industrial structure and employment structure is one of the main reasons that affect employment. By calculating the structural deviation, correlation coefficient, coordination coefficient and employment elasticity between the three industrial structures and the employment structure, this paper deeply analyzes the interactive relationship between the industrial structure and the employment structure in China. It is pointed out that there is a serious incoordination between the two, which inhibits the effect of rapid economic growth leading to employment expansion in China. After that, based on the empirical analysis of industrial structure and employment structure in China and 31 provinces and cities, this paper discusses the reasons why they do not change harmoniously. Finally, put forward the next stage to promote employment related policy recommendations. In this paper, we first calculate the above four indexes according to the relative data of the proportion of output value of three industries and the proportion of employment in China in 1978 / 2012. It is found that during this period, the degree of deviation between industrial structure and employment structure in China is gradually decreasing, and the coordination coefficient is also gradually increasing, indicating that the degree of imbalance between the two is gradually weakening. However, the proportion of employment in the primary industry has always been larger than the proportion of its output value, indicating that there is still a large amount of surplus labor in the rural areas of China. Second, the employment ratio of the tertiary industry is smaller than that of its output value, which indicates that there is still a lot of employment space for the secondary and tertiary industries, especially the employment elasticity of the tertiary industry, which can absorb more labor force. Secondly, this paper analyzes the industrial structure and employment structure of 31 provinces and cities in China in 1990-2010. By constructing the panel data model, this paper tries to find out the factors that affect the structural deviation, coordination coefficient and employment elasticity between the two. It is found that the dynamic relationship between the two is more balanced in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and the imbalance between industrial structure and employment structure is the most serious in the western region. On this basis, this paper analyzes the reasons for the deviation between the proportion of output value and the proportion of employment, as well as the factors that affect the ability of industry to absorb employment. This paper analyzes the interactive relationship between industrial structure and employment structure since the reform and opening-up in China from the aspects of total quantity and structure, and points out that there are stages of economic development between the two, and that they exist in the east and in the middle. The regional differences among the western regions; Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of the disharmony between the total quantity and the inter-regional industrial structure and employment structure, some policy suggestions are put forward to improve the harmonious relationship between the industrial structure and the employment structure change and promote employment.
【學位授予單位】：廈門大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F121.3;F249.21
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