【摘要】：“九五”以來(lái)，河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)呈現(xiàn)高速發(fā)展，人均GDP持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)中，第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占最大比重，重工業(yè)仍然是主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)。伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)，環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題日益嚴(yán)重，生態(tài)環(huán)境比較脆弱，霧霾、沙塵天氣頻繁出現(xiàn)。如何治理環(huán)境污染，提高環(huán)境質(zhì)量，實(shí)現(xiàn)河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和環(huán)境效益的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，成為政府、學(xué)者、社會(huì)公眾普遍關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。本文選取河北省1998-2012年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和環(huán)境質(zhì)量的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，，選出代表經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和環(huán)境質(zhì)量的典型指標(biāo)，建立環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線(EKC)模型，運(yùn)用環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線(EKC)相關(guān)理論，分析河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境質(zhì)量的關(guān)系。 首先，介紹相關(guān)理論及方法。介紹了環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線(EKC)的理論內(nèi)涵，常見(jiàn)模型及表現(xiàn)形式，EKC成因的影響因素。另外闡述了回歸分析法的基本思想，多元回歸模型和逐步回歸法。 其次，分析河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和環(huán)境質(zhì)量現(xiàn)狀。從經(jīng)濟(jì)整體增長(zhǎng)狀況、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)兩方面分析了河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的狀況；從水環(huán)境、空氣環(huán)境、固體廢棄物排放、生態(tài)環(huán)境四方面分析了河北省環(huán)境質(zhì)量的狀況。 再次，選取河北省六類(lèi)典型環(huán)境質(zhì)量指標(biāo)，人均GDP作為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指標(biāo)，分別構(gòu)建環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線(EKC)模型，運(yùn)用SPSS軟件模擬方程結(jié)果和擬合曲線，得出人均GDP與各個(gè)環(huán)境質(zhì)量指標(biāo)的模擬方程，對(duì)模擬結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析后發(fā)現(xiàn)，河北省只有工業(yè)廢氣排放量與人均GDP呈現(xiàn)典型倒U型，其他環(huán)境質(zhì)量指標(biāo)的EKC呈現(xiàn)N型、倒N型、單調(diào)遞增型。 最后，根據(jù)河北省EKC表現(xiàn)形式，選取EKC成因影響因素指標(biāo)和環(huán)境質(zhì)量指標(biāo)，建立多元回歸模型，采用逐步回歸法進(jìn)一步探究河北省EKC的成因，并且從規(guī)模、結(jié)構(gòu)、技術(shù)、政策角度提出改善環(huán)境質(zhì)量的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the Ninth Five-Year Plan, the economy of Hebei Province has developed at a high speed and the per capita GDP has continued to grow. In the industrial structure, the secondary industry accounts for the largest proportion, and heavy industry is still the leading industry. With the rapid growth of economy, the problem of environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious, and the relatively fragile ecological environment, haze, dust weather frequently appears. How to control environmental pollution, improve environmental quality and realize the coordinated development of economic and environmental benefits in Hebei Province has become a hot issue that the government, scholars and the public are generally concerned about. This paper selects the relevant data of economic growth and environmental quality from 1998 to 2012 in Hebei Province, selects the typical indicators representing economic growth and environmental quality, and establishes the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model. The relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in Hebei Province is analyzed by using the (EKC) theory of environmental Kuznets curve. First of all, introduce the relevant theories and methods. This paper introduces the theoretical connotation, common models and forms of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), and the influencing factors of EKC formation. In addition, the basic idea of regression analysis, multiple regression model and stepwise regression method are expounded. Secondly, the economic growth and environmental quality of Hebei Province are analyzed. This paper analyzes the situation of economic growth in Hebei Province from two aspects of the overall economic growth and industrial structure, and analyzes the environmental quality of Hebei Province from four aspects: water environment, air environment, solid waste discharge and ecological environment. Thirdly, six kinds of typical environmental quality indexes of Hebei Province are selected, and the per capita GDP is taken as the economic growth index. The (EKC) model of the environmental Kuznets curve is constructed, and the simulation results and fitting curves of the environmental Kuznets curve are obtained by SPSS software. The simulation equations of per capita GDP and each environmental quality index are obtained. The results show that only industrial exhaust gas emissions and per capita GDP are typical inverted U type in Hebei Province, while the other EKC of other environmental quality indexes are N type and inverted N type. Monotone increasing type. Finally, according to the manifestation of EKC in Hebei Province, the factors affecting the cause of formation of EKC and the index of environmental quality are selected, and the multivariate regression model is established. The stepwise regression method is used to further explore the causes of EKC in Hebei Province, and from the scale, structure, technology, From the policy point of view, countermeasures and suggestions for improving environmental quality are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：燕山大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X22;F124.1

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