【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)對(duì)貧困治理力度的加大,我國(guó)貧困人口數(shù)量大幅下降。但由于各類(lèi)自然災(zāi)害的影響,導(dǎo)致一些地區(qū)人民遭受巨大的損失,從而陷入貧困的境地,使得“因?yàn)?zāi)致貧”的問(wèn)題成為治理貧困所不可避免的障礙。本文選擇重慶市黔江區(qū)作為研究區(qū),以黔江區(qū)各自然村作為研究對(duì)象,在歸納總結(jié)國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于因?yàn)?zāi)致貧研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,基于地理信息系統(tǒng)技術(shù)、模糊數(shù)學(xué)和社會(huì)統(tǒng)計(jì)的理論和方法,在村級(jí)尺度上研究洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)向貧困風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的轉(zhuǎn)移程度。本文的主要研究?jī)?nèi)容包括以下三個(gè)方面： 首先分析了洪澇災(zāi)害的成災(zāi)機(jī)理,在此基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)建立軟層次模型,從收入、資產(chǎn)和福利三個(gè)維度分析洪澇災(zāi)害對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)卦斐傻挠绊�。分析結(jié)果表明,洪澇災(zāi)害對(duì)黔江當(dāng)?shù)氐氖杖搿①Y產(chǎn)和福利的影響機(jī)制存在各自特點(diǎn),但都會(huì)造成貧困的加深。 其次是對(duì)洪澇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)向貧困風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移的定量化,在洪澇對(duì)貧困影響模式的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)對(duì)收入、資產(chǎn)、和福利指標(biāo)的空間化,結(jié)合根據(jù)歷史數(shù)據(jù)擬合的災(zāi)害損失率,分別研究洪澇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)向三個(gè)維度的轉(zhuǎn)移程度。通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移前后結(jié)果的對(duì)比,不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)級(jí)別下三個(gè)維度轉(zhuǎn)移的結(jié)果也不同。 最后將這三個(gè)維度的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行綜合。在收入、資產(chǎn)和福利三個(gè)維度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定量化的基礎(chǔ)上,分別測(cè)算了單維度下的貧困發(fā)生率。并依據(jù)多維貧困理論,將這三個(gè)維度進(jìn)行綜合測(cè)算,得出多維貧困發(fā)生率,綜合評(píng)價(jià)洪澇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)向貧困風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的轉(zhuǎn)移程度。結(jié)果表明,洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高發(fā)區(qū)也是貧困較為嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)。
[Abstract]:With the increase of poverty control in our country, the number of poor population in our country has dropped dramatically. However, due to the influence of all kinds of natural disasters, people in some areas suffer huge losses, thus they fall into poverty, and the problem of "poverty caused by disasters" becomes an inevitable obstacle to the treatment of poverty. In this paper, Qianjiang District of Chongqing City is chosen as the research area, and the natural villages of Qianjiang District are chosen as the research objects. On the basis of summing up the research results of poverty caused by disasters at home and abroad, this paper bases on GIS technology. The theory and method of fuzzy mathematics and social statistics are used to study the transferring degree of flood disaster risk to poverty risk on village scale. The main contents of this paper include the following three aspects: firstly, the mechanism of flood disaster is analyzed. The three dimensions of assets and welfare are used to analyze the local impact of flood and waterlogging disaster. The results show that the influence mechanism of flood disaster on local income, assets and welfare of Qianjiang River has its own characteristics, but all of them will lead to the deepening of poverty. The second is the quantification of the transfer of flood risk to poverty risk. On the basis of the impact model of flood and waterlogging on poverty, through the spatialization of income, assets, and welfare indicators, combined with the disaster loss rate fitted according to historical data, The degree of flood risk transferring to three dimensions was studied separately. By comparing the results before and after the risk transfer, the results of the three dimensions are different under different risk levels. Finally, the risk of these three dimensions is synthesized. On the basis of risk quantification of income, assets and welfare, the incidence of poverty in single dimension is calculated. According to the theory of multidimensional poverty, the three dimensions are comprehensively calculated, the incidence of multi-dimensional poverty is obtained, and the degree of transferring flood risk to poverty risk is comprehensively evaluated. The results show that the area with high risk of flood and waterlogging is also a poor area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F124.7;P426.616

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