【摘要】：本文使用中國(guó)省級(jí)層面的面板數(shù)據(jù),考察了貿(mào)易開(kāi)放對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的影響。研究結(jié)果顯示:貿(mào)易開(kāi)放所產(chǎn)生的外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)顯著增加了經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng),而貿(mào)易開(kāi)放減少了經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng),其中出口貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的影響顯著為負(fù),而進(jìn)口貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的影響為負(fù)但不顯著;貿(mào)易開(kāi)放通過(guò)進(jìn)出口市場(chǎng)多樣化減少了經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng),而且進(jìn)出口市場(chǎng)多樣化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的負(fù)向影響是U型的,并且U型表現(xiàn)出較強(qiáng)的穩(wěn)健性。本文的研究結(jié)果表明貿(mào)易開(kāi)放所引致的外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)破壞了經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定,而貿(mào)易市場(chǎng)多樣化對(duì)保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的穩(wěn)定性發(fā)揮了重要作用。
[Abstract]:Using panel data at provincial level in China, this paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on China's economic volatility. The results show that the external risks caused by trade liberalization significantly increase economic volatility, while trade liberalization reduces economic volatility, in which export trade has a significant negative impact on economic volatility. The influence of import trade on economic fluctuation is negative but not significant. Trade opening reduces the economic fluctuation through the diversification of import and export market, and the negative influence of the diversification of import and export market on economic fluctuation is U-shaped, and U-type shows strong robustness. The results show that the external risks caused by open trade destroy the economic stability, and the diversification of trade market plays an important role in maintaining the stability of economic growth.
【作者單位】： 對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重大項(xiàng)目“我國(guó)新一輪對(duì)外開(kāi)放的戰(zhàn)略布局、主要目標(biāo)與政策選擇研究”(11&ZD007)
【分類號(hào)】：F124.8;F752
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本文編號(hào)：2336593