【摘要】：基于貝葉斯和沖擊響應方法,對經典CEE模型中的摩擦性機制進行了評估,判斷模型中哪些機制對于分析中國經濟是重要的和不可或缺的。首先基于貝葉斯方法,對剔除不同摩擦性因素的CEE模型進行貝葉斯估計,比較其邊緣似然函數(shù),發(fā)現(xiàn)對中國數(shù)據(jù)解釋力最強的模型機制是價格黏性和投資調整成本,其次是習慣形成和工資黏性,而資本利用率調整成本、價格和工資的指數(shù)化因素則并不重要。最后基于沖擊響應方法,考察CEE模型對貨幣、技術和政府支出等三種沖擊的響應曲線,進一步證實了貝葉斯評估的結論。
[Abstract]:Based on the Bayesian and shock response methods, the friction mechanism in the classical CEE model is evaluated, and which mechanisms are important and indispensable to the analysis of China's economy are judged. Based on Bayesian method, Bayesian estimation of CEE model with different frictional factors is carried out, and its edge likelihood function is compared. It is found that the most powerful model mechanisms for Chinese data interpretation are price stickiness and investment adjustment cost. The second is habit formation and wage stickiness, while the cost of capital utilization adjustment, the indexation of price and wage is not important. Finally, based on the shock response method, the response curves of CEE model to currency, technology and government expenditure are investigated, which further confirm the conclusion of Bayesian evaluation.
【作者單位】： 河南大學經濟學院;江西財經大學江西經濟發(fā)展與改革研究院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金青年項目“政治制度對經濟發(fā)展影響的隨機動態(tài)規(guī)劃與實證研究:基于DSGE與動態(tài)面板分析方法”(71503110);國家自然科學基金項目“訊息沖擊視角下我國宏觀財政調控政策對經濟波動的影響機制研究”(71463017) 教育部人文社會科學研究規(guī)劃青年項目“經濟政策不確定性、時變的菲利普曲線與貨幣政策有效性”(17YJC790028) 江西省教育廳科技項目“宏觀經濟不確定性與貨幣政策傳導——基于擴展的Phillips曲線研究”(GJJ160462)
【分類號】：F124;F726
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本文編號：2281919