中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯直接投資與貿(mào)易關(guān)系研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-17 13:54
【摘要】：國(guó)家之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)交往活動(dòng)在形式上主要表現(xiàn)為國(guó)際貿(mào)易與國(guó)際直接投資,國(guó)際貿(mào)易主要表現(xiàn)為商品的國(guó)際交換,國(guó)際直接投資表現(xiàn)為生產(chǎn)資本的國(guó)際流動(dòng)。從經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的歷史來(lái)看,新航路開辟后,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)通過殖民擴(kuò)張開始聯(lián)系在一起,而殖民擴(kuò)張為最早的國(guó)際貿(mào)易,第一次工業(yè)革命之后,資本主義世界市場(chǎng)初步形成,資本主義國(guó)家的對(duì)外貿(mào)易以商品貿(mào)易為主,第二次工業(yè)革命之后,資本主義世界市場(chǎng)最終形成,這一時(shí)期資本主義國(guó)家的對(duì)外貿(mào)易以資本輸出為主,主要形式為組建跨國(guó)公司來(lái)取得更多的利益,第二次世界大戰(zhàn)之后的經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化趨勢(shì)更加明顯,主要表現(xiàn)為貿(mào)易全球化、資本全球化、生產(chǎn)全球化、經(jīng)濟(jì)管理制度的國(guó)際化,因此可以看出,國(guó)際貿(mào)易的出現(xiàn)早于國(guó)際資本的形成,并且表現(xiàn)為國(guó)際投資的先導(dǎo),而在當(dāng)今世界經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的進(jìn)程中,交叉融合的趨勢(shì)開始日漸明顯。改革開放以來(lái),中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng),對(duì)外貿(mào)易與對(duì)外直接投資規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,因此積極發(fā)展對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有更為重要的戰(zhàn)略意義。本文旨在結(jié)合國(guó)別的基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)投資與貿(mào)易的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究,使結(jié)論更具現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。俄羅斯是中國(guó)最大的鄰國(guó),兩國(guó)之間有著很深的歷史淵源。同時(shí),俄羅斯也是世界上著名的能源大國(guó)、科技大國(guó)和核大國(guó)。俄羅斯在前蘇聯(lián)時(shí)期曾經(jīng)是一個(gè)高度發(fā)達(dá)的工業(yè)化國(guó)家,在20世紀(jì)90年代經(jīng)歷了一場(chǎng)嚴(yán)重的社會(huì)政治危機(jī)之后,國(guó)家綜合實(shí)力大受影響,但是在葉利欽、普京和梅德韋杰夫三任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人及俄羅斯民眾的努力下,俄羅斯在各方面復(fù)蘇飛快,特別是經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的恢復(fù),俄羅斯有著厚實(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ),再加上政局穩(wěn)定,國(guó)家和社會(huì)平穩(wěn)發(fā)展,俄羅斯目前又是國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界公認(rèn)的當(dāng)今世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展最快的國(guó)家之一。因此,加強(qiáng)與俄羅斯的經(jīng)貿(mào)合作對(duì)加強(qiáng)中俄睦鄰友好關(guān)系有相當(dāng)大的影響,具有重要的政治意義。本文首先回顧了中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯直接投資發(fā)展歷程,分析了其投資的規(guī)模、行業(yè)及主體分布特征,并總結(jié)了中國(guó)企業(yè)在俄羅斯開展直接投資所面臨的障礙。其次對(duì)中俄兩國(guó)雙邊貿(mào)易發(fā)展歷程,進(jìn)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)及中俄貿(mào)易中存在的問題進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)闡述。然后通過建立VAR模型實(shí)證分析了中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯直接投資與中俄貿(mào)易間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯直接投資與中俄貿(mào)易(包括進(jìn)口、出口)之間的確存在著長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系。通過格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn),中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯直接投資與中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯出口和進(jìn)口之間存在單向因果關(guān)系。通過脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解發(fā)現(xiàn),中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯直接投資對(duì)中俄貿(mào)易的影響存在明顯的滯后現(xiàn)象,中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯直接投資對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯進(jìn)口開始會(huì)有正向的影響之后漸漸轉(zhuǎn)化為負(fù)向影響;而中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯直接投資對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯出口開始沖擊較小,之后正向影響增強(qiáng)且趨于穩(wěn)定。最后,在綜合分析的基礎(chǔ)上提出了相關(guān)建議,包括防范投資合作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、建立并啟動(dòng)應(yīng)急預(yù)案、積極推進(jìn)落實(shí)兩國(guó)地區(qū)合作規(guī)劃綱要、加快對(duì)俄經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)進(jìn)軍的步伐、加強(qiáng)平臺(tái)建設(shè)、積極探索新型合作模式,加強(qiáng)引導(dǎo)提升投資層次等,以期更好地利用中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資推動(dòng)中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The economic interaction between countries is mainly characterized by international trade and international direct investment, international trade is mainly manifested as international exchange of commodities, and international direct investment is reflected in the international flow of production capital. From the history of economic globalization, after the opening of the new route, the world economy began to link with the colonial expansion, while the colonial expansion was the earliest international trade. After the first industrial revolution, the capitalist world market was initially formed. The foreign trade of capitalist countries is dominated by commodity trade. After the second industrial revolution, the capitalist world market is finally formed. The foreign trade of the capitalist countries in this period is mainly based on capital output. The main form is to form transnational corporations to gain more benefits. The trend of economic globalization after the Second World War was more obvious, mainly represented by the globalization of trade, the globalization of capital, the globalization of production and the internationalization of economic management system. Therefore, it can be seen that the emergence of international trade was early in the formation of international capital. And the trend of cross-integration is becoming more and more obvious in the process of world economic integration. Since the reform and opening-up, China's economic growth, foreign trade and foreign direct investment have been expanding. Therefore, the positive development of foreign direct investment is of great strategic significance to the sustainable development of China's economy. The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between investment and trade, and make the conclusion more practical. Russia is one of China's largest neighbors, and there are deep pockets between the two countries. At the same time, Russia is also the world's famous energy nation, science and technology power and nuclear power. Russia was once a highly developed industrialized country in the Soviet era, after a serious social political crisis in the 1990s, the country's comprehensive strength was greatly affected, but in Yeltsin, With the efforts of Mr. Putin and the three leaders of Medvedev and the Russian people, Russia's recovery in various areas, particularly the recovery of economic power, has a solid economic base and a steady development of political stability, national and social stability, Russia is now one of the fastest growing economies in the world today. Therefore, it is of great political significance to strengthen the economic and trade cooperation with Russia and have a considerable influence on strengthening the good-neighborly friendship between China and Russia. This paper first reviews the development of China's direct investment in Russia, analyzes the scale, industry and main distribution characteristics of its investment, and sums up the obstacles faced by Chinese enterprises in the development of direct investment in Russia. Secondly, the development of bilateral trade between China and Russia, the structure of import and export commodities and the existing problems in Sino-Russian trade are expounded in detail. Then, by establishing VAR model, the paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between China's direct investment and Sino-Russian trade, and finds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's direct investment and Sino-Russian trade (including import and export). Through Granger causality test, China's direct investment in Russia and China have a one-way causal relationship to Russia's exports and imports. By means of impulse response function and variance decomposition, China's direct investment in Russia has a significant lag on Sino-Russian trade, and China's direct investment in Russia is gradually transformed into negative influence upon China's positive influence on Russia's import. China's direct investment in Russia has little impact on China's exports to Russia, and then has a positive impact on strengthening and stabilizing. Finally, put forward relevant suggestions on the basis of comprehensive analysis, including preventing investment cooperation risk, establishing and starting emergency plan, actively promoting the implementation of cooperative planning outline of two countries, accelerating the march of Russian special economic zone, strengthening the construction of platform, and actively exploring new type of cooperation mode. We should strengthen the promotion of investment hierarchy and so on, with a view to making better use of China's foreign direct investment to promote the development of China's foreign trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F125;F151.2
本文編號(hào)：2276876
[Abstract]:The economic interaction between countries is mainly characterized by international trade and international direct investment, international trade is mainly manifested as international exchange of commodities, and international direct investment is reflected in the international flow of production capital. From the history of economic globalization, after the opening of the new route, the world economy began to link with the colonial expansion, while the colonial expansion was the earliest international trade. After the first industrial revolution, the capitalist world market was initially formed. The foreign trade of capitalist countries is dominated by commodity trade. After the second industrial revolution, the capitalist world market is finally formed. The foreign trade of the capitalist countries in this period is mainly based on capital output. The main form is to form transnational corporations to gain more benefits. The trend of economic globalization after the Second World War was more obvious, mainly represented by the globalization of trade, the globalization of capital, the globalization of production and the internationalization of economic management system. Therefore, it can be seen that the emergence of international trade was early in the formation of international capital. And the trend of cross-integration is becoming more and more obvious in the process of world economic integration. Since the reform and opening-up, China's economic growth, foreign trade and foreign direct investment have been expanding. Therefore, the positive development of foreign direct investment is of great strategic significance to the sustainable development of China's economy. The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between investment and trade, and make the conclusion more practical. Russia is one of China's largest neighbors, and there are deep pockets between the two countries. At the same time, Russia is also the world's famous energy nation, science and technology power and nuclear power. Russia was once a highly developed industrialized country in the Soviet era, after a serious social political crisis in the 1990s, the country's comprehensive strength was greatly affected, but in Yeltsin, With the efforts of Mr. Putin and the three leaders of Medvedev and the Russian people, Russia's recovery in various areas, particularly the recovery of economic power, has a solid economic base and a steady development of political stability, national and social stability, Russia is now one of the fastest growing economies in the world today. Therefore, it is of great political significance to strengthen the economic and trade cooperation with Russia and have a considerable influence on strengthening the good-neighborly friendship between China and Russia. This paper first reviews the development of China's direct investment in Russia, analyzes the scale, industry and main distribution characteristics of its investment, and sums up the obstacles faced by Chinese enterprises in the development of direct investment in Russia. Secondly, the development of bilateral trade between China and Russia, the structure of import and export commodities and the existing problems in Sino-Russian trade are expounded in detail. Then, by establishing VAR model, the paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between China's direct investment and Sino-Russian trade, and finds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's direct investment and Sino-Russian trade (including import and export). Through Granger causality test, China's direct investment in Russia and China have a one-way causal relationship to Russia's exports and imports. By means of impulse response function and variance decomposition, China's direct investment in Russia has a significant lag on Sino-Russian trade, and China's direct investment in Russia is gradually transformed into negative influence upon China's positive influence on Russia's import. China's direct investment in Russia has little impact on China's exports to Russia, and then has a positive impact on strengthening and stabilizing. Finally, put forward relevant suggestions on the basis of comprehensive analysis, including preventing investment cooperation risk, establishing and starting emergency plan, actively promoting the implementation of cooperative planning outline of two countries, accelerating the march of Russian special economic zone, strengthening the construction of platform, and actively exploring new type of cooperation mode. We should strengthen the promotion of investment hierarchy and so on, with a view to making better use of China's foreign direct investment to promote the development of China's foreign trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F125;F151.2
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