【摘要】：世界各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的歷程表現(xiàn)出涇渭分明的苦樂不均。大多數(shù)發(fā)展中國(guó)家或者在“貧困陷阱”面前艱難掙扎,或者在“中等收入陷阱”面前躑躅不前,而形成鮮明對(duì)照的是,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)史上總有個(gè)別“成績(jī)優(yōu)異”的國(guó)家能夠逆勢(shì)而上,不僅成功經(jīng)濟(jì)追趕的時(shí)間比先發(fā)國(guó)家要短,而且在追趕的過(guò)程中本身也進(jìn)入持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的良性循環(huán)。自凡勃倫和格申克龍等學(xué)者做出開創(chuàng)性研究以來(lái),后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)就是一國(guó)追趕戰(zhàn)略的重要理論支撐。本文即以后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)理論為視角,研究中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)及對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)追趕。與當(dāng)前大多數(shù)研究不同的是,本文跳出了后進(jìn)國(guó)家技術(shù)追趕或FDI溢出效應(yīng)等單一視界,而將發(fā)展中國(guó)家的結(jié)構(gòu)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)、人力后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)、技術(shù)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)、資本后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)和制度后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)作為一個(gè)整體。本文也關(guān)注各種后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的階段性變化特征,并在后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的理論框架下梳理和解釋中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和體制改革的變遷過(guò)程。本文的基本觀點(diǎn)是,正是這五種后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的協(xié)同作用,中國(guó)才得以實(shí)現(xiàn)持續(xù)、快速的追趕績(jī)效。 后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的核心理念是學(xué)習(xí),這在中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)方針中不斷體現(xiàn)和強(qiáng)調(diào)。作為研究的起點(diǎn),本文首先對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)追趕的結(jié)構(gòu)性變化和增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力進(jìn)行經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析。以1992年、1997年為節(jié)點(diǎn),我們可以將改革開放以后的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)追趕劃分為三個(gè)階段,追趕能力呈現(xiàn)依次加強(qiáng)的趨勢(shì)。增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力的經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析表明,資本積累、人力資源、結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變、技術(shù)進(jìn)步和制度變遷對(duì)中國(guó)改革開放以后的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有很強(qiáng)的解釋力。我們判斷,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之所以出現(xiàn)持續(xù)追趕的趨勢(shì),正是因?yàn)樵谫Y本積累、人力資源、結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變、技術(shù)進(jìn)步和制度變遷方面具有相比成熟經(jīng)濟(jì)體而言的優(yōu)勢(shì)地位,由此引出資本后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)、人力后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)、結(jié)構(gòu)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)、技術(shù)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)和制度后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的理念。 結(jié)構(gòu)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)表現(xiàn)在,發(fā)展中國(guó)家相對(duì)于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家而言具有更大的結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變空間,生產(chǎn)要素向高生產(chǎn)率部門的再配置可以為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)額外的收益。工業(yè)化推動(dòng)下的結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變過(guò)程是中國(guó)比發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)更快的重要推動(dòng)力。我們將中國(guó)發(fā)揮結(jié)構(gòu)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的過(guò)程劃分為五個(gè)階段,其中結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變對(duì)生產(chǎn)率提高的貢獻(xiàn)在1978-1986、1992-1997和2003-2012年三個(gè)階段里較高。在經(jīng)歷90年代末城市國(guó)有部門戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整帶來(lái)的陣痛期以后,結(jié)構(gòu)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)為新千年以來(lái)的快速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)提供了有力支撐。 人力后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的基礎(chǔ)是勞動(dòng)力資源豐富和勞動(dòng)力成本低廉,另一方面也在于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家具有知識(shí)的溢出效應(yīng),發(fā)展中國(guó)家對(duì)教育和人力資本的投資可以獲得比發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家更高的收益。中國(guó)利用人力后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)最顯著的成效就是出口貿(mào)易總量不斷擴(kuò)大,并且逐步成為全世界的制造工廠。中國(guó)加入WTO以后,人力后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)得到更大程度的釋放。 技術(shù)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)主要是指,發(fā)展中國(guó)家只需要付出極小的代價(jià)就可以引進(jìn)外來(lái)科學(xué)技術(shù)運(yùn)用于本國(guó)的生產(chǎn)活動(dòng),縮小與國(guó)際技術(shù)前沿的差距。我們將改革開放以來(lái)中國(guó)發(fā)揮技術(shù)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的歷程分為三個(gè)階段：在80年代前期和中期,中國(guó)技術(shù)發(fā)展路線是對(duì)計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)期的矯正和在開放環(huán)境下對(duì)發(fā)揮技術(shù)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的摸索；從80年代末到90年代,中國(guó)技術(shù)發(fā)展是以引進(jìn)和模仿外來(lái)技術(shù)為主；從90年代末開始,中國(guó)加快了從模仿到創(chuàng)新的技術(shù)追趕路線轉(zhuǎn)變的步伐。 資本后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的理論基礎(chǔ)是資本報(bào)酬遞減的規(guī)律,這樣,發(fā)展中國(guó)家的資本回報(bào)率更高,國(guó)際資本將流向發(fā)展中國(guó)家并促進(jìn)后者的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家相比,發(fā)展中國(guó)家往往擁有更高的投資率,這部分是因?yàn)榘l(fā)展中國(guó)家在起飛階段經(jīng)常會(huì)采取國(guó)有化和強(qiáng)制性的資本積累方式,高投資率的背后可能是低下的生產(chǎn)效率和投資回報(bào)。從相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的研究結(jié)論可以判斷,至少?gòu)?0年代末開始,隨著國(guó)有企業(yè)改革的深入,中國(guó)的高投資現(xiàn)象和外商資本的不斷涌入是具有高投資回報(bào)率的微觀基礎(chǔ)的。我們利用省際面板數(shù)據(jù)也發(fā)現(xiàn),以1997年為分水嶺,中國(guó)資本積累的模式出現(xiàn)明顯差異,資本積累的替代性制度安排逐漸正讓位于穩(wěn)健性制度安排。 制度后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)是指,發(fā)展中國(guó)家可以學(xué)習(xí)、模仿和借鑒發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的先進(jìn)制度和管理經(jīng)驗(yàn),由此避免先發(fā)國(guó)家有效制度形成所需要付出的不斷試錯(cuò)的高昂代價(jià),從而節(jié)約經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的時(shí)間成本和創(chuàng)新空間。為了達(dá)到追趕績(jī)效最優(yōu)化的目標(biāo),發(fā)展中國(guó)家在不同的發(fā)展階段應(yīng)該采取不同的發(fā)展政策。早期有利于落后國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)追趕的替代性制度安排到了發(fā)展的后期就不再適宜,政府必須適時(shí)考慮將替代性制度轉(zhuǎn)向穩(wěn)健型制度,也就是以市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)為基礎(chǔ)的和以創(chuàng)新活動(dòng)為主要形式的追趕政策,否則將陷入一個(gè)非收斂的均衡陷阱。本文在制度后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的框架下解釋90年代末國(guó)企改革的邏輯,制度變遷的整體性和關(guān)聯(lián)性在這一轉(zhuǎn)變中起到重要作用。 本文在五種后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的基礎(chǔ)上提出系統(tǒng)性后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)戰(zhàn)略的理念,發(fā)展中國(guó)家的任務(wù)就是要設(shè)計(jì)出一套機(jī)制,使結(jié)構(gòu)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)、人力后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)、技術(shù)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)、資本后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)和制度后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的發(fā)揮納入到與經(jīng)濟(jì)追趕良性互動(dòng)的循環(huán)體系內(nèi)。本文將中國(guó)借用后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的追趕戰(zhàn)略實(shí)踐分為三個(gè)階段：準(zhǔn)備期、調(diào)整期和鞏固期。以90年代末和新千年初為轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn),中國(guó)經(jīng)過(guò)國(guó)企戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整和加入WTO,后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)戰(zhàn)略步入鞏固期。本文也對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)追趕中各種后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的貢獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析,在90年代末以來(lái),結(jié)構(gòu)后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)、人力后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)和教育的人力資本后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)發(fā)揮了最顯著的作用。 本文最后詳細(xì)比較了基于后發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)的追趕戰(zhàn)略與趕超戰(zhàn)略以及比較優(yōu)勢(shì)戰(zhàn)略的區(qū)別,并對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變和進(jìn)一步深化改革提出了建議。
[Abstract]:The history of the economic development of the countries in the world shows that the world's economic development is uneven. Most developing countries or in Poverty Trap To struggle in front of, or in front of "Medium Income Trap" in contrast, that history of the world's economic history is that there is an individual difference in the history of the world. "Excellent results" The country is able to reverse the potential, not only the time of successful economic catch-up is shorter than that of the first country, but also in the process of catching up, it also enters a virtuous circle of sustained growth. Since the pioneering research by the scholars such as Van Buren and Gershenko, the advantage of post-development is the important theoretical support of the country's catch-up strategy. This paper is to study the economic growth of China and the economic pursuit of the developed countries from the perspective of the back-up advantage theory. Unlike most of the current research, this paper points out the single horizon, such as the post-entry national technical catch-up or FDI spillover effect, and takes advantage of the structure of developing countries, post-manpower advantage, post-technology advantage, post-capital advantage and post-system advantage as a whole. In this paper, we also pay attention to the characteristics of the changes of the post-hair advantage, and then, under the theoretical framework of the advantage of post-hair, comb and explain the process of the change of China's economic development and institutional reform. The basic point of this paper is that it is the synergy of these five advantages, so that China can achieve sustained and rapid catch-up performance. The core idea of post-hair advantage is study, which is embodied in the course of economic construction of Chinese leaders. As a starting point for research, this paper first experiences the structural changes and growth dynamics of China's economic catch-up. Analysis. In 1992, 1997 as the node, we can divide China's economic catch up into three stages after the reform and opening-up, and the catch-up ability will be strengthened in turn The empirical analysis of growth dynamics shows that capital accumulation, human resources, structural transformation, technological progress and institutional change have a strong solution to the economic growth of China after the reform and opening up We judge that the trend of sustained catch-up of China's economic growth is because of the advantages of the mature economy in capital accumulation, human resources, structural transformation, technological progress and institutional change, thus leading to the advantage of post-capital and after manpower. Advantages, post-structure advantages, post-technical advantages and post-system advantages The post-structural advantages of the structure show that the developing countries have more structural transformation space relative to the developed countries, and the re-allocation of production factors to the high-productivity sectors can bring about economic growth Additional benefits. The process of structural transformation driven by industrialization is faster than the economic growth of developed countries It is an important driving force. We divide China into five stages, including the contribution of structural transformation to productivity enhancement in 1978-1986, 1992-1997 and 2003-2012. The stage is high. After the battle period brought by the strategic adjustment of the state-owned sector in the late 1990s, the post-structure advantage has been provided by the rapid economic growth since the new millennium. Strong support is provided. The foundation of human back-up is that the labor resource is abundant and the labor cost is low, and on the other hand, the developed countries have the spillover effect of knowledge, and the investment of developing countries to education and human capital can achieve a better ratio. The most remarkable effect of China's utilization of manpower is the expansion of total export trade, and gradually become the most remarkable result of China's utilization of human resources The world's manufacturing plants. After China's entry into the WTO, it has the advantage of manpower To a greater extent, the post-technical advantage mainly refers to the fact that the developing countries can introduce external science and technology to the production activities of their own countries at a very small price, In the early and middle of the 1980s, China's technical development route is the correction of the planned economy period and the exploration for exerting the advantage in the open environment in the early and middle of the 80 's. From the late 1980s to the 1990s, China's technological development was mainly based on the introduction and imitation of foreign technology; from the end of the 1990s, China has accelerated its development from imitation to innovation The pace of the change of technology catch-up route. The theoretical basis of capital post-growth advantage is the law of diminishing returns of capital, so the return of capital in developing countries is higher, and international capital flows to the developing countries. Countries in developing countries and promoting the latter's economic growth. Developing countries tend to have higher investment rates than developed countries, partly because developing countries often take nationalisation and mandatory capital accumulation at the take-off stage, behind high investment rates Can be a low production efficiency and investment return. From the research conclusion of the relevant literature, it can be judged that at least since the late 1990s, with the reform of state-owned enterprises, China's high investment and the constant influx of foreign capital are Based on the micro-foundation of high return on investment, we also found that in 1997 as the watershed, China's capital accumulation model had obvious difference and the alternative system of capital accumulation was found. As a result, developing countries can learn, imitate and learn from the advanced system and management experience of developed countries, thus avoiding the high cost of developing a country's effective system to form the constant trial and error that needs to be paid, and from In order to achieve the goal of optimizing pursuit performance, developing countries do not Different development policies should be adopted at the same stage of development. The alternative system which is favorable for the backward country's economic pursuit is no longer appropriate in the late stage of the development, and the government must consider changing the alternative system to a robust system in due time, i.e. the market competition is the basis. ..catch-up with innovative activities as the main form. Otherwise, we will fall into a non-convergent equilibrium trap. In the framework of post-system advantage, this paper explains the logic and institutional changes of state-owned enterprises reform at the end of 1990s. It plays an important role in this transformation. Based on the five advantages, this paper puts forward the idea of systematic post-service advantage strategy, and the task of developing countries is to design a set of mechanisms. Post-structure advantage, post-manpower advantage, post-technical advantage, post-capital advantage and post-system advantage. In this paper, we introduce China's catch-up strategy for the advantage of post-borrowing. The practice is divided into three stages: period, adjustment period and consolidation period. At the end of 1990s and the beginning of the new millennium, China passed the strategy of state-owned enterprises After adjustment and entry into WTO, the strategy of post-development advantage is stepped into the consolidation period. This paper also analyses the contribution of China's economic catch-up in China's economic catch-up. It has advantages of post-structure and post-manpower advantage since the late 1990' s. This paper gives a detailed comparison of the difference between the strategy of chasing strategy and the strategy of catching up and catching up and the strategy of comparative advantage based on the advantage of the latter.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124

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