【摘要】：在全球氣候變暖及國內(nèi)大力發(fā)展生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的大背景下,浙江省各市積極配合黨和國家發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的政策,浙江省已經(jīng)把低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展模式納入其未來的發(fā)展建設(shè)體系。浙江省各市已經(jīng)在摸索適合自己的低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)之路。在此背景下,深入分析浙江省各市碳排放與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的現(xiàn)狀以及影響二氧化碳的排放的因素,進(jìn)而為當(dāng)?shù)卣贫ㄏ嚓P(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)、環(huán)保等政策提供理論支持。本文按照“文獻(xiàn)梳理—理論分析—現(xiàn)狀分析—計(jì)量實(shí)證—結(jié)果分析—政策建議”的思路來展開研究。第一,對研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與二氧化碳的排放量以及影響二氧化碳排放的重要因素的文獻(xiàn)做了較為系統(tǒng)的梳理,在總結(jié)了現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)在數(shù)據(jù)范圍及控制變量的選取方面的不足。第二,對二氧化碳排放與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的有關(guān)理論作了較為深入全面的研究。第三,本文對浙江省各市的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和二氧化碳排放現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析:從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)兩方面分析了浙江省整體以及11市的增長的狀況;從浙江省各市碳排放強(qiáng)度、Tapio脫鉤指數(shù)兩方面分析了浙江省低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,由于當(dāng)前尚未有權(quán)威部門或組織對二氧化碳的排放量數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行測算,故本文依據(jù)相關(guān)學(xué)者介紹的方法對各市的二氧化碳的排放量進(jìn)行了測算。第四,本文在實(shí)證部分試圖解決以下三問題:(1)浙江省各市二氧化碳排放量與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是否呈現(xiàn)出EKC倒U型曲線,如若不是,是什么樣的形狀?(2)國際貿(mào)易、外商直接投、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、城市化率對影響二氧化碳的排放有無影響?(3)探究各控制變量對因變量影響是否存在長期效應(yīng)?本文在第五章對上述三個問題做出了回答:(1)杭州市、嘉興市、金華市、衢州市、臺州市為倒“N”型曲線;溫州市、紹興市、舟山市為“N”型曲線;寧波市、湖州市、麗水市為倒“U”型曲線。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明:在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的初期,CO_2排放量受其影響之深,而當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展達(dá)到一定的程度之后,CO_2排放量受其影響程度會有所減弱,雖然影響的作用會出現(xiàn)方向的變化,但是這種變化不是主導(dǎo)性的。這就告訴我們在經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展的今天,雖然GDP的微小變化可能不會對CO_2排放量有很大的改變,但是可能會讓其從抑制轉(zhuǎn)向促進(jìn)或者相反。因此,我們在大力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時,必須意識到二者之間的這種關(guān)系。如果可以很好的利用這一轉(zhuǎn)機(jī),就有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與環(huán)境保護(hù)的雙贏。(2)通過浙江省11個市FDI、TRADE、SECT、CITY四個控制變量對CO_2排放量影響的分析發(fā)現(xiàn),四個變量對CO_2排放量的影響都是有正有負(fù)的,這就表明不同的地區(qū)這些因素的影響都是不同的,不光是數(shù)值上的不同,作用方向都不盡相同。這表明:環(huán)境變化的多樣性以及不確定性,我們大力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時必須得因地制宜地制定相應(yīng)的對策才能找到平衡。(3)引入各變量的滯后項(xiàng)進(jìn)行分析,以便更加全面考慮各變量之間的影響程度是否存在長期效應(yīng);實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,各變量的一階滯后項(xiàng)效應(yīng)明顯,故長期效應(yīng)存在。最后,本文結(jié)合本文的實(shí)證結(jié)論,從大力發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè)以提升產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、控制城市化進(jìn)程、改善國際貿(mào)易的商品結(jié)構(gòu)與適當(dāng)控制外商直接投資等四個角度提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global warming and vigorous development of ecological civilization in China, Zhejiang Province has actively cooperated with the Party and the state in developing low-carbon economy. Zhejiang Province has incorporated the development model of low-carbon economy into its future development and construction system. Under the circumstances, this paper analyzes the current situation of carbon emissions and economic growth in Zhejiang Province and the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions, and then provides theoretical support for the local government to formulate policies on related industries and environmental protection. Firstly, the literature on economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and the important factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions are systematically reviewed, and the shortcomings of existing literature in data range and control variables selection are summarized. Secondly, the relevant theories of carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth are compared. Thirdly, this paper analyzes the current situation of economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Zhejiang Province: the overall growth of Zhejiang Province and the growth of 11 cities in terms of economic growth and industrial structure; the development of low-carbon economy in Zhejiang Province is analyzed in terms of carbon emission intensity and Tapio decoupling index. As there is no authoritative department or organization to measure the carbon dioxide emissions, this paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of each city according to the method introduced by relevant scholars. Fourthly, this paper tries to solve the following three problems in the empirical part: (1) carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in Zhejiang Province. Is the long-term EKC inverted U-shaped curve, if not, what shape is it? (2) Does international trade, foreign direct investment, industrial structure, urbanization rate have any impact on carbon dioxide emissions? (3) Does each control variable have a long-term effect on the dependent variable? The results show that in the early stage of economic development, CO_2 emissions are deeply affected by it, and when the economic development reaches a certain degree, CO_2 emissions are emitted. This tells us that in today's high-speed economic development, although small changes in GDP may not have a significant change in CO 2 emissions, it may change from inhibition to promotion or vice versa. Therefore, we must be aware of the relationship between the two. If we can make good use of this turning point, it is possible to achieve a win-win situation between economic development and environmental protection. The influence of O_2 emission is positive or negative, which indicates that the influence of these factors is different in different areas, not only in numerical value, but also in different directions. (3) introducing the lag term of each variable to analyze, so as to consider whether there is a long-term effect between the various variables more comprehensively; the empirical results show that the first-order lag effect of each variable is obvious, so the long-term effect exists. Finally, this paper combines the empirical conclusions of this paper, from vigorously developing the tertiary industry to enhance production. Policy proposals are put forward from four perspectives: industrial structure, control of urbanization, improvement of commodity structure of international trade and proper control of foreign direct investment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X22;F127

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