【摘要】：民營經(jīng)濟(jì)是我國深化改革開放的重要推動者,是促進(jìn)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)步增長、改善民生和實現(xiàn)“中國夢”的關(guān)鍵力量。經(jīng)過三十多年的發(fā)展歷程,民營經(jīng)濟(jì)正逐步轉(zhuǎn)變低效、粗放的運營方式,逐漸適用新時代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的需要,在不斷探索中成長。民營經(jīng)濟(jì)的繁榮在其用電量水平上可窺見一斑,而電網(wǎng)是民營經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速健康發(fā)展的重要保障,兩者之間存在密切而微妙的聯(lián)系。只有對電力需求與民營經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展內(nèi)在關(guān)系有了科學(xué)認(rèn)識,才能為民營經(jīng)濟(jì)提供適宜的發(fā)展環(huán)境,并制定合理的電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃滿足其發(fā)展需要。因此,開展民營電力需求和民營經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的變化特征研究是十分有必要的。以便于明確電力需求與民營經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的內(nèi)在關(guān)系,對民營經(jīng)濟(jì)電力需求進(jìn)行有效預(yù)測,為電力規(guī)劃及運行管理提供決策支持。 本文首先科學(xué)、全面、系統(tǒng)地梳理了影響民營經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的因素,并建立了相適應(yīng)的指標(biāo)體系。采用敏感性分析,主成分分析等統(tǒng)計學(xué)方法,明確了各因素指標(biāo)的影響程度,并篩選出關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。其次,利用H-P濾波,格蘭杰因果檢驗,單位根檢驗等協(xié)整理論,建立了民營經(jīng)濟(jì)用電量與地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值之間的趨勢及波動的協(xié)整方程,明確了兩者之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系。最后,重點建立了針對民營經(jīng)濟(jì)用電量變化特點的預(yù)測方法體系,采用了支持向量機(jī)預(yù)測,趨勢外推預(yù)測,灰色預(yù)測、組合預(yù)測和馬爾科夫預(yù)測等方法,得到了較好的預(yù)測結(jié)果,為電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃及運行生產(chǎn)提供了決策支持。最后,本文將整個預(yù)測分析過程開發(fā)成了軟件信息系統(tǒng),進(jìn)一步提高電力需求預(yù)測管理水平,增強(qiáng)相關(guān)理論技術(shù)的實用性。 研究經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與電力需求的相關(guān)性,是為了揭示民營經(jīng)濟(jì)電力需求內(nèi)在驅(qū)動因素及其變化規(guī)律；進(jìn)行民營經(jīng)濟(jì)電力需求準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測,是為了把握民營經(jīng)濟(jì)電力需求變化的長期趨勢。兩種方法從不同角度對民營經(jīng)濟(jì)電力需求的變化規(guī)律進(jìn)行了探究,是對經(jīng)濟(jì)與電力需求關(guān)系研究體系的有益補充,為進(jìn)行科學(xué)合理的電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃提供重要參考依據(jù),為制定更加符合民營經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展特征的政策提供了技術(shù)支持。
[Abstract]:Private economy is an important promoter of deepening reform and opening up in China. It is the key force to promote the steady growth of Chinese economy, improve people's livelihood and realize "Chinese Dream". After more than 30 years of development, private economy is gradually changing inefficient, extensive operation mode, gradually adapt to the needs of economic growth in the new era, and continue to explore the growth. The prosperity of the private economy can be seen in the level of its electricity consumption, and the power grid is an important guarantee for the rapid and healthy development of the private economy, there is a close and subtle relationship between the two. Only if we have a scientific understanding of the inherent relationship between the demand for electricity and the development of private economy, can we provide a suitable development environment for the private economy, and formulate reasonable power network planning to meet its development needs. Therefore, it is necessary to study the changing characteristics of private electricity demand and private economy development. In order to make clear the internal relation between the power demand and the development of the private economy, we can forecast the electricity demand of the private economy effectively, and provide decision support for the electric power planning and operation management. In this paper, the scientific, comprehensive, systematic analysis of the factors affecting the development of private economy, and the establishment of a suitable index system. Sensitivity analysis, principal component analysis and other statistical methods were used to determine the influence degree of each factor index, and the key indexes were screened out. Secondly, by using H-P filter, Granger causality test, unit root test and other cointegration theory, the cointegration equation of the trend and fluctuation between electricity consumption and regional GDP in private economy is established, and the internal relationship between them is clarified. Finally, the paper establishes the forecasting method system according to the characteristics of electricity consumption in private economy, adopts support vector machine, trend extrapolation, grey forecast, combination forecast and Markov forecast, and so on, and puts forward some methods, such as support vector machine forecast, trend extrapolation forecast, grey forecast, combination forecast and Markov forecast etc. Good prediction results are obtained and decision support is provided for power network planning and operation production. Finally, the whole prediction and analysis process is developed into a software information system, which further improves the management level of power demand forecasting and enhances the practicability of related theory and technology. The purpose of studying the correlation between economic development and power demand is to reveal the internal driving factors and their changing laws of power demand in private economy, to make accurate prediction of electricity demand in private economy. Is in order to grasp the private economy electricity demand change long-term trend. The two methods probe into the changing law of power demand in the private economy from different angles, which is a useful supplement to the research system of the relationship between economy and power demand, and provides an important reference basis for the scientific and reasonable power network planning. For the formulation of more in line with the characteristics of private economic development policy to provide technical support.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F121.23;F426.61

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