【摘要】：當前，企業(yè)海外投資，已成為我國企業(yè)“走出去”的重要戰(zhàn)略舉措。黨中央、國務院為進一步拓展企業(yè)發(fā)展空間、掌握企業(yè)發(fā)展主動權，逐步提升“走出去”的地位，特別是在黨的十八屆三中全會上，“走出去”的地位被進一步提升，已與“引進來”居于同等重要地位。這給外向型經(jīng)濟占重要地位的廣州市企業(yè)帶來利好消息，但同時也對廣州市企業(yè)提出了新的要求�！白叱鋈ァ闭弑貙⒋偈箯V州市企業(yè)加快海外投資步伐，以緩解要素成本上漲、資源瓶頸制約、人民幣升值壓力、國外反傾銷加劇等因素帶來的壓力，從而推動廣州市經(jīng)濟健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展。但是與此同時，因投資目的國的投資環(huán)境復雜性以及全球形勢的不確定性，廣州市企業(yè)進行海外投資風險問題備受關注，已成為當前政府界、企業(yè)界和學術界等社會各界關注的熱點課題。 廣州市企業(yè)海外投資風險問題涉及因素眾多，該問題的研究與思考是一項復雜的系統(tǒng)工程。通過對廣州市企業(yè)海外投資的歷程、比較優(yōu)勢、海外投資的意義、必要性、可行性和復雜性等方面進行了分析研究，運用企業(yè)海外投資理論、風險管理理論、模糊決策理論和計算機技術等多學科協(xié)同創(chuàng)新研究模式，利用霍爾三維結(jié)構圖對廣州市企業(yè)海外風險的復雜性進行較為系統(tǒng)的分析，從而構建了形象、直觀的廣州市企業(yè)海外風險分析的霍爾三維結(jié)構圖，為有效管控廣州市企業(yè)海外投資風險提供一種新的模式；從廣州市企業(yè)海外投資風險的誘惑機制和約束機制的視角分析廣州市企業(yè)海外投資風險形成的動態(tài)機理，構建了廣州市企業(yè)海外投資風險動態(tài)平衡的數(shù)理模型，對于有效規(guī)避廣州市企業(yè)海外投資風險具有較高的理論及應用價值；基于風險概念的模糊不確定性，運用模糊決策理論，對廣州市企業(yè)海外投資風險進行模糊測度和預警，對提高廣州市企業(yè)海外投資風險管控能力提供了一種新的科學研究方法。根據(jù)本文的研究，通過廣州市SJ集團有限公司的海外投資風險管理問題進行了實證分析，以說明本文研究的理論模型的有效性、可靠性、科學性和應用性。最后，對構建政府、企業(yè)、第三方機構三個層面的廣州市企業(yè)海外投資風險防控體系提出了相應的對策措施。
[Abstract]:At present, overseas investment has become an important strategic measure for Chinese enterprises to go out. In order to further expand the space for the development of enterprises, the State Council and the CPC Central Committee have gradually upgraded the status of "going out" to the third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in order to grasp the initiative in the development of enterprises, and in particular, the status of "going out" has been further promoted. It is as important as bringing in. This brings good news to the enterprises of Guangzhou, which have an important position in export-oriented economy, but at the same time, it puts forward new requirements to the enterprises of Guangzhou. The "going out" policy will certainly urge Guangzhou enterprises to speed up their overseas investment in order to ease the pressure brought by factors such as rising factor costs, resource bottleneck constraints, pressure on RMB appreciation, intensified anti-dumping abroad, and so on. So as to promote the healthy and sustainable development of Guangzhou's economy. But at the same time, due to the complexity of the investment environment and the uncertainty of the global situation in the investment destination countries, the risk of overseas investment by Guangzhou enterprises has attracted much attention and has become the current government sector. Business circles and academia and other social circles concerned about hot topics. There are many factors involved in the risk of overseas investment of Guangzhou enterprises, and the research and consideration of this problem is a complicated systematic project. Based on the analysis of the course, comparative advantage, significance, necessity, feasibility and complexity of overseas investment of Guangzhou enterprises, this paper applies the theory of enterprise overseas investment and the theory of risk management. The fuzzy decision theory and computer technology are used to analyze the complexity of overseas risk of Guangzhou enterprises, and the image is constructed. The direct analysis of overseas risk in Guangzhou City provides a new model for the effective management of overseas investment risk of Guangzhou enterprises. This paper analyzes the dynamic mechanism of the formation of overseas investment risk of Guangzhou enterprises from the perspective of enticement mechanism and constraint mechanism of overseas investment risk of Guangzhou enterprises, and constructs a mathematical model of dynamic balance of overseas investment risk of Guangzhou enterprises. Based on the fuzzy uncertainty of risk concept, the fuzzy decision theory is used to measure and warn the overseas investment risk of Guangzhou enterprises. It provides a new scientific research method to improve the risk control ability of Guangzhou enterprises' overseas investment. According to the research of this paper, through the overseas investment risk management of Guangzhou SJ Group Co., Ltd., an empirical analysis is made to illustrate the validity, reliability, science and application of the theoretical model studied in this paper. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures to construct the risk prevention and control system of Guangzhou enterprises' overseas investment in three levels: government, enterprise and third party organization.
【學位授予單位】：廣東財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F279.2;F275;F125

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