【摘要】：從國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的史實來看，技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)在本質(zhì)上都是演化的，二者蘊含在一個動態(tài)的協(xié)同演化系統(tǒng)中，然而，國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)有的主流文獻忽視了技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)的協(xié)同演化特征，演化經(jīng)濟學文獻也未能將技術(shù)進步和金融結(jié)構(gòu)納入到協(xié)同演化分析的框架中。在實踐中，政策決策者忽視了技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)同發(fā)展的重要性，比如，2000年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫和2008年爆發(fā)的世界性金融危機表明，即使是在技術(shù)水平最高、金融市場最發(fā)達的美國，同樣也存在技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)的嚴重失衡的問題。在我國，仍然是政府主導的科技金融體制，將金融定位于服務(wù)者角色，著重解決技術(shù)進步過程中的融資問題，忽略了金融系統(tǒng)自身發(fā)展的規(guī)律，沒有注意到二者之間的協(xié)同發(fā)展對于科技創(chuàng)新和技術(shù)進步所具有的重要作用，使得長期以來，我國市場融資結(jié)構(gòu)嚴重不平衡，特別是創(chuàng)新型很強的中小企業(yè)在融資上的“麥克米倫缺口”（MacmillanGap）問題十分突出。因此，在知識經(jīng)濟迅猛發(fā)展和全球金融危機等復雜國際背景下，對技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)的協(xié)同演化關(guān)系進行系統(tǒng)研究，無疑具有重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義。 協(xié)同演化是在特定的時間和空間情境（Context）中，兩個或兩個以上的具有演化特征的主體持續(xù)地互動與演變，，其演化行為相互影響，演化路徑相互交織的現(xiàn)象。技術(shù)進步的演化特征在空間維度上表現(xiàn)為技術(shù)創(chuàng)新在微觀的企業(yè)層面上形成的規(guī)模效應(yīng)、在中觀的產(chǎn)業(yè)層面上形成的集聚效應(yīng)和乘數(shù)效應(yīng)、在宏觀層面上通過技術(shù)—經(jīng)濟范式轉(zhuǎn)型產(chǎn)生的周期波動效應(yīng)；在時間維度上表現(xiàn)為舊知識被淘汰和新知識產(chǎn)生的新陳代謝的生命周期過程。金融結(jié)構(gòu)的演化在時間維度上表現(xiàn)為金融結(jié)構(gòu)主導模式的演化即“早期的實物貨幣交易的初期階段→信用貨幣創(chuàng)造的銀行主導階段→非貨幣金融工具擴張的金融市場主導階段”；在空間維度上表現(xiàn)為金融工具和金融機構(gòu)的種類逐漸豐富與多樣化，其功能逐漸改善與多元化。因此，技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)都具有鮮明的時空動態(tài)演化特征，使我們可以將其納入到一個協(xié)同演化的分析框架中去審視它們的互動與演變。 技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)的協(xié)同演化框架是通過二者之間的協(xié)同演化機制緊密聯(lián)系在一起的。協(xié)同演化機制包括兩個相互聯(lián)系的兩個方面，一是金融結(jié)構(gòu)的演化如何影響技術(shù)進步，二是技術(shù)進步如何促使金融結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷。金融結(jié)構(gòu)對技術(shù)進步的影響機制包括金融的融資機制、金融的風險分散機制和金融的信息審查機制；技術(shù)進步對金融結(jié)構(gòu)的影響機制包括技術(shù)進步的金融技術(shù)供給機制、技術(shù)進步的金融需求創(chuàng)造機制以及技術(shù)進步的金融投資回報機制。技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)通過協(xié)同演化機制緊密耦合在一起，相互作用、相互滲透、協(xié)同演化，并協(xié)同演化過程中，表現(xiàn)出系統(tǒng)開放性與自適應(yīng)性、系統(tǒng)主體間的雙向因果關(guān)系、系統(tǒng)主體間的正反饋關(guān)系、系統(tǒng)各主體相互作用的非線性和復雜性以及系統(tǒng)漲落性、突變性與功能涌現(xiàn)性等演化系統(tǒng)的典型特征。因此，我們可以將“技術(shù)進步—金融結(jié)構(gòu)”視為一個復合演化系統(tǒng)，利用現(xiàn)代科學的復雜適應(yīng)系統(tǒng)理論和協(xié)同學理論探索其協(xié)同演化規(guī)律。我們借鑒協(xié)同學理論的“復合系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度模型”，構(gòu)建“技術(shù)進步—金融結(jié)構(gòu)”復合系統(tǒng)的協(xié)同度模型，該模型綜合考慮了技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)兩個子系統(tǒng)在協(xié)同演化過程中的狀況，它提供了一種判斷復合系統(tǒng)協(xié)同演化程度的度量標準。 我們系統(tǒng)考察了美國、日本以及中國的技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)的協(xié)同演化狀況，并用技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)復合系統(tǒng)協(xié)同度模型對其進行實證測算。結(jié)論表明，美國和日本的技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)的協(xié)同演化狀況與其國家發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟周期密切相關(guān)。當經(jīng)濟處于快速發(fā)展的繁榮階段時，技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)呈現(xiàn)出良好的協(xié)同發(fā)展狀態(tài)，當經(jīng)濟處于衰退或不穩(wěn)定階段時，技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)的協(xié)同度就會出現(xiàn)波動，從而為Perez（2002）在考察技術(shù)革命與金融資本演化的過程中提出的“技術(shù)—經(jīng)濟”范式變革規(guī)律提供了實證依據(jù)。不穩(wěn)定性、動態(tài)性和復雜性是技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)同演化進程的重要特征，技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)之間的交互式螺旋式的正反饋機制并且保持結(jié)構(gòu)性平衡是二者實現(xiàn)良性協(xié)同發(fā)展的前提。相比較而言，中國自改革開放以來，經(jīng)濟處于高速增長的上升周期，技術(shù)進步與間接金融子系統(tǒng)雖然形成了一定程度的相互促進的協(xié)同發(fā)展機制，但協(xié)同度較小，并且技術(shù)進步與直接金融子系統(tǒng)的協(xié)同度波動較大，甚至有些年份出現(xiàn)負值，表明中國技術(shù)進步子系統(tǒng)與直接金融子系統(tǒng)還未形成良好的協(xié)同發(fā)展機制。 進一步地，如果我們將技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)的協(xié)同演化推廣到產(chǎn)業(yè)的層面，就會表現(xiàn)為高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)與金融產(chǎn)業(yè)的共生演化（Symbiotic Evolution）現(xiàn)象。我們通過構(gòu)建高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)和金融產(chǎn)業(yè)共生演化的Logistic模型，并用中國1995-2012年的高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)和金融產(chǎn)業(yè)的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)，對二者的共生演化進行實證檢驗。結(jié)果表明，分時段疊加Logistic共生演化模型能夠很好地描述中國金融產(chǎn)業(yè)與高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)的共生演化過程，且其共生演化模式屬于非對稱互惠共生，沒有實現(xiàn)具有最大共生能量、最穩(wěn)定和最有效率的對稱性互惠共生。 因此，為促進我國技術(shù)進步與金融結(jié)構(gòu)形成長期良性的協(xié)同發(fā)展機制，促使我國金融產(chǎn)業(yè)與高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)實現(xiàn)對稱互惠共生演化，我們提出健全以銀行為核心的金融機構(gòu)綜合服務(wù)體系、完善以股票市場為核心的多元化資本市場體系、健全有利于科技創(chuàng)新和金融體系協(xié)同發(fā)展的制度支撐體系以及建立科學的公共科技金融投資績效評價體系和科技創(chuàng)新資源共享平臺等政策建議。
[Abstract]:From the historical facts of the national economic development, the technological progress and the financial structure are essentially evolutional, and the two are contained in a dynamic cooperative evolution system. However, the existing mainstream literature at home and abroad ignores the Synergetic Evolution Characteristics of the technological progress and the financial structure, and the literature of evolutionary economics has also failed to make technical progress and financial structure. In the framework of Synergetic Evolution, policy makers ignore the importance of synergy between technological progress and the financial structure in practice, for example, the 2000 Internet bubble and the world financial crisis that broke out in 2008 showed that even at the highest level of technology, the most developed financial markets in the United States also had technological progress. The serious imbalance between the financial structure and the financial structure in China is still the government led scientific and technological financial system, positioning the finance in the role of the service provider, focusing on solving the financing problems in the process of technological progress, neglecting the law of the development of the financial system itself, and not paying attention to the cooperation between the two parties for scientific and technological innovation and technological progress. The important role is that the market financing structure of our country has been seriously unbalanced for a long time, especially the "Mcmillan gap" (MacmillanGap) problem of small and medium-sized enterprises with strong innovation type is very prominent. Therefore, in the complex international background of the rapid development of knowledge economy and the global financial crisis, the technical progress and finance are made. It is undoubtedly of great theoretical and practical significance to systematically study the co evolution relationship of structures.
Synergetic Evolution is a continuous interaction and evolution of two or more subjects with evolutionary characteristics in a specific time and space situation (Context). Its evolutionary behavior affects each other and the evolutionary path intertwine. The evolutionary characteristics of technological progress represent the formation of technological innovation at the micro enterprise level in the spatial dimension. The scale effect, the agglomeration effect and multiplier effect formed at the middle view of the industrial level, the cyclical fluctuation effect produced by the transformation of the technological economic paradigm at the macro level; in the time dimension, the life cycle of the old knowledge is eliminated and the new knowledge produced by the new knowledge. The evolution of the financial structure is in the time dimension. The evolution of the leading mode of the financial structure is "the early stage of the early real money transaction, the leading stage of the credit money creation, the leading stage of the expansion of the non monetary financial instruments"; in the spatial dimension, the types of financial instruments and financial institutions are gradually enriched and diversified. As a result, both the technological progress and the financial structure have a distinct temporal and spatial dynamic evolution, so that we can incorporate it into a synergetic analysis framework to examine their interaction and evolution.
The Synergetic Evolution framework of technological progress and financial structure is closely linked through the cooperative evolution mechanism between the two. The cooperative evolution mechanism includes two interrelated two aspects. One is how the evolution of the financial structure affects the technological progress, and the two is how the technological progress makes the financial structure change. The financial structure is to the technology. The impact mechanism of progress includes financial financing mechanism, financial risk dispersion mechanism and financial information review mechanism; the impact mechanism of technological progress on financial structure includes the financial technology supply mechanism of technological progress, the creation mechanism of financial demand for technological progress and the return mechanism of financial investment in technological advance. The financial structure is tightly coupled, interacting, interpenetrating, CO evolving, and co evolving, and in the process of co evolution, it shows the openness and adaptability of the system, the two-way causal relationship between the main bodies, the positive feedback relationship between the systems, the nonlinear and complexity of the interaction of the main bodies of the system and the rise of the system. We can use the complex adaptive system theory of modern science and the synergetic theory to explore its co evolution law. We use the synergetic theory of "complex system coordination degree model" for reference. Type ", construct the synergistic degree model of the" technological progress financial structure "complex system. The model comprehensively considers the situation of the two subsystems of the technological progress and the financial structure in the process of co evolution. It provides a measure to judge the degree of synergy evolution of the composite system.
We systematically examine the co evolution of technological progress and financial structure in the United States, Japan and China, and use the synergistic model of the composite system of technological progress and financial structure to carry out an empirical calculation. The conclusion shows that the co evolution of technological progress and financial structure in the United States and Japan is closely related to the economic cycle of the national development. When the economy is in the stage of rapid development and prosperity, technological progress and financial structure have a good state of synergy. When the economy is in the stage of recession or instability, the synergy of technological progress and financial structure will fluctuate, thus Perez (2002) is in the process of examining the technological revolution and the evolution of financial capital. It provides an empirical basis for the transformation of "technology economy" paradigm. Instability, dynamics and complexity are the important features of the process of co evolution between technological progress and financial structure. The interactive and positive feedback mechanism between the technological progress and the financial structure and the structural balance are the two virtuous cooperative development. In comparison, China has been in a high growth cycle since the reform and opening up. Although the technological progress and the indirect financial subsystem have formed a certain degree of mutual promotion mechanism, the coordination degree is small, and the coordination degree of the technological progress and direct golden thawing system fluctuates greatly, even in some years. A negative value indicates that China's technological progress subsystem has not yet formed a good synergy development mechanism with the direct financial subsystem.
Further, if we extend the synergy of technological progress and financial structure to the industrial level, we will show the Symbiotic Evolution phenomenon of high and new technology industry and financial industry. Through the construction of the Logistic model of high technology industry and financial industry, we use China for 1995-2012 years. The time series data of the new technology industry and the financial industry are tested for the symbiotic evolution of the two. The results show that the Logistic symbiotic evolution model can well describe the symbiotic evolution process of China's financial industry and high-tech industry, and its symbiotic evolution model is asymmetric mutualism. There is the largest symbiotic energy, the most stable and the most efficient symbiotic symbiosis.
Therefore, in order to promote the long-term and benign cooperative development mechanism of China's technological progress and financial structure, and promote the symmetrically and mutualism of China's financial industry and high and new technology industry, we put forward a sound comprehensive service system of banking as the core of the financial institutions, and improve the diversified capital market system with the core of the stock market as the core. The system is conducive to scientific and technological innovation and the coordinated development of the financial system, as well as the establishment of scientific public science and technology financial investment performance evaluation system and scientific and technological innovation resources sharing platform and other policy recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F124.3;F832

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