本文選題：環(huán)境 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)��； 參考：《重慶大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：由人類(lèi)溫室氣體排放增加引起的全球氣候變暖已成為了不爭(zhēng)的事實(shí)，這對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)以及環(huán)境的可持續(xù)發(fā)展帶來(lái)了嚴(yán)重的威脅。對(duì)于我國(guó)而言，伴隨著改革開(kāi)放的不斷推進(jìn)，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)以及國(guó)際貿(mào)易取得較快的發(fā)展，目前已成為了世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體和第一貨物貿(mào)易大國(guó)，但與此同時(shí)，我們也應(yīng)看到經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中產(chǎn)生的一些負(fù)面問(wèn)題：資源短缺、生態(tài)環(huán)境破壞等。以CO2排放為例，2005年我國(guó)已超過(guò)美國(guó)成為了全球最大的CO2排放國(guó)，2011年我國(guó)CO2排放總量占全世界排放總量的25.380%。在此背景下，本文深入探討了我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與CO2排放、國(guó)際貿(mào)易與CO2排放之間的關(guān)系。具體研究?jī)?nèi)容如下： 首先，將自然資源環(huán)境污染因素納入了一個(gè)新古典增長(zhǎng)模型和兩個(gè)內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)模型，在一般均衡框架下探討了經(jīng)濟(jì)最優(yōu)增長(zhǎng)路徑是否存在以及存在條件，并得出了產(chǎn)出彈性、人力資本效率系數(shù)、消費(fèi)者偏好參數(shù)和污染控制程度指數(shù)對(duì)最優(yōu)平衡增長(zhǎng)路徑的影響。 其次，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與CO2排放間的雙向關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析，，并對(duì)EKC假說(shuō)是否成立進(jìn)行了計(jì)量檢驗(yàn)。由于EKC檢驗(yàn)對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)、模型以及方法的選擇較為敏感，因此，本文從多個(gè)角度對(duì)上述問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了分析，包括采用不同的數(shù)據(jù)類(lèi)型（1960-2011年全國(guó)的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)、1995-2011年30個(gè)省的面板數(shù)據(jù)）、不同計(jì)量模型（單方程模型、聯(lián)立方程模型）、不同層面（全國(guó)層面、基于面板門(mén)限回歸結(jié)果的分組層面）、不同計(jì)量方法（邊界檢驗(yàn)、自回歸分布滯后模型、三階段最小二乘估計(jì)法、固定效應(yīng)模型和隨機(jī)效應(yīng)模型等）。 最后，國(guó)際貿(mào)易與CO2排放關(guān)系的實(shí)證分析。以Grossman and Krueger的貿(mào)易環(huán)境效應(yīng)分解框架為依據(jù)，以此為基礎(chǔ)建立了聯(lián)立方程模型，并以加入WTO為臨界點(diǎn)，通過(guò)引入時(shí)間虛擬變量，對(duì)比分析了兩階段國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)我國(guó)CO2排放影響存在的差異，并計(jì)算得到了規(guī)模效應(yīng)、結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)和技術(shù)效應(yīng)的具體數(shù)值。在聯(lián)立方程模型估計(jì)的基礎(chǔ)上，通過(guò)建立新的計(jì)量模型對(duì)“要素稟賦假說(shuō)”和“污染天堂假說(shuō)”進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。研究結(jié)論表明： ①在新古典增長(zhǎng)模型中，最優(yōu)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)不可持續(xù)，而在人力資本模型包含人力資本和RD的內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)模型中，當(dāng)滿(mǎn)足一定條件時(shí)，即可實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)與資源環(huán)境間的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 ②基于全國(guó)層面時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與CO2排放間的估計(jì)結(jié)果表明，產(chǎn)出方程和污染方程的變量間均存在著長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關(guān)系。無(wú)論是短期還是長(zhǎng)期，我國(guó)CO2排放與收入之間均表現(xiàn)為“倒N型”曲線(xiàn)關(guān)系，并且，由于第一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)對(duì)應(yīng)的收入水平很低和所有樣本數(shù)據(jù)均遠(yuǎn)大于該值，因此，可以認(rèn)為上述兩者間為“倒U型”曲線(xiàn)關(guān)系，即CO2排放的EKC假說(shuō)在我國(guó)是成立的。 ③基于全國(guó)層面面板數(shù)據(jù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與碳排放間的分析結(jié)果表明：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與CO2排放之間仍表現(xiàn)為“倒N型”曲線(xiàn)關(guān)系，但從目前來(lái)看，兩者間具有雙向的作用關(guān)系，即：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)會(huì)對(duì)碳減排產(chǎn)生不利影響，與此同時(shí)，降低碳排放水平也會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、貿(mào)易開(kāi)放度和城市化水平對(duì)碳排放產(chǎn)生了不利影響，能源強(qiáng)度、一次能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)和環(huán)境規(guī)制的碳排放效應(yīng)則正好相反。 ④基于分組層面的EKC曲線(xiàn)研究結(jié)果表明：以城市化水平和工業(yè)化水平為分組變量，基于面板門(mén)限回歸結(jié)果可將我國(guó)30個(gè)省劃分為7個(gè)組。7組中CO2排放與收入之間均呈現(xiàn)出“倒N型”曲線(xiàn)關(guān)系，但對(duì)于每組而言，轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)對(duì)應(yīng)的收入水平以及達(dá)到的年份均存在著較大差異，并且相同變量對(duì)不同組別碳排放的影響程度也不盡相同。我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展路徑可以劃分為4個(gè)階段：初始階段、過(guò)渡階段1、過(guò)渡階段2和后期階段，其中過(guò)渡階段1面臨著較為嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境問(wèn)題，且有17個(gè)省份落入了該階段，因此，從整體來(lái)看我國(guó)面臨的碳排放問(wèn)題較為嚴(yán)峻。 ⑤國(guó)際貿(mào)易與CO2排放關(guān)系的研究結(jié)果表明：入世后規(guī)模效應(yīng)和技術(shù)效應(yīng)的絕對(duì)值增加，結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)減小，但由于規(guī)模效應(yīng)使環(huán)境惡化的程度大于結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)和技術(shù)效應(yīng)對(duì)環(huán)境的有利程度之和，因此入世后國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)我國(guó)CO2排放的不利影響程度增加。FEH和PHH在我國(guó)均成立，但由于環(huán)境規(guī)制因素起主導(dǎo)作用，從而導(dǎo)致了結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)對(duì)碳排放產(chǎn)生了不利影響。 針對(duì)理論分析以及實(shí)證分析得到的結(jié)論，本文分別從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源強(qiáng)度、一次能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、城市化因素、環(huán)境規(guī)制以及國(guó)際貿(mào)易等角度提出了我國(guó)碳減排的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The global warming caused by the increase of human greenhouse gas emissions has become an indisputable fact, which poses a serious threat to the sustainable development of the global economy, society and the environment. For our country, with the continuous promotion of reform and opening up, China's economy and international trade have made rapid development, and now it has become the world. At the same time, we should also see some negative problems in the process of economic development, such as the shortage of resources, the destruction of the ecological environment and so on. In the case of CO2 emission, China has exceeded the United States in 2005 as the largest CO2 producer in the world. In 2011, the total emission of our country's CO2 emissions accounted for the whole world emissions. Under the background of total 25.380%., this paper discusses the relationship between China's economic growth and CO2 emissions, and the relationship between international trade and CO2 emissions. The specific contents are as follows:
First, the natural resources and environmental pollution factors are brought into a new classical growth model and two endogenous growth models. Under the general equilibrium framework, the existence and conditions of the optimal economic growth path are discussed, and the output elasticity, the human capital efficiency coefficient, the preference parameter of the consumer and the pollution control degree index are obtained. The impact of a balanced growth path.
Secondly, the two-way relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions is analyzed, and a measurement test is carried out on whether the EKC hypothesis is established. Because EKC tests are sensitive to the selection of data, models and methods, this paper analyzes the above problems from a number of angles, including the use of different data types (1960-2011 years of national time). Inter sequence data, panel data of 30 provinces in 1995-2011 years), different measurement models (single equation model, simultaneous equation model), different levels (national level, group level based on panel threshold regression results), different measurement methods (boundary test, autoregressive distribution lag model, three stage least square estimation method, fixed effect model and random) The effect model and so on.
Finally, the empirical analysis of the relationship between international trade and CO2 emissions is based on the framework of the trade environmental effect decomposition of Grossman and Krueger, based on which a simultaneous equation model is established, and the effect of the two stages of international trade on the emission of CO2 emissions in China is compared and analyzed by introducing the time virtual variable by introducing the WTO as the critical point. The specific values of scale effect, structure effect and technical effect are calculated. On the basis of the estimation of the simultaneous equation model, the "factor endowment hypothesis" and "pollution paradise hypothesis" are empirically tested through the establishment of a new measurement model.
(1) in the neoclassical growth model, the optimal economic growth is not sustainable, while the human capital model contains the endogenous growth model of human capital and RD, and the sustainable development between the economic and the resource environment can be realized when certain conditions are met.
(2) the estimated results between economic growth and CO2 emissions based on national level time series data show that there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between the output equation and the pollution equation. Both the CO2 emission and the income of our country show the "inverted N" curve relationship, and the first turning point is due to the relationship between the output equation and the pollution equation. The corresponding income level is very low and all the sample data are far greater than that. Therefore, it is considered that the above two are "inverted U" curves, that is, the EKC hypothesis of CO2 emission is established in our country.
(3) the analysis of economic growth and carbon emissions based on the national level panel data shows that the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions is still a "inverted N" curve, but from now on, there is a two-way relationship between the two, that is, economic growth will have adverse effects on carbon emission reduction, and at the same time reduce carbon emissions. It also has a negative impact on economic growth. Industrial structure, trade openness and urbanization level have a negative impact on carbon emissions, energy intensity, the first energy consumption structure and the environmental regulation of carbon emissions are the opposite.
(4) the results of the EKC curve based on the group level show that, with the urbanization level and the industrialization level as the grouping variables, the panel threshold regression results can divide the 30 provinces into 7 groups of our country into the "inverted N" curve relationship between the CO2 emission and the income in the group of 7 groups, but for each group, the income level corresponding to the turning point is on the level of income. There are great differences in the years and the effects of the same variables on the carbon emissions of different groups. The path of economic development in China can be divided into 4 stages: the initial stage, the transition stage 1, the transition stage 2 and the later stage, of which the 1 sides of the transition stage are facing more serious environmental problems, and there are 17 provinces. As a result, the carbon emission problem faced by our country is more serious.
The study on the relationship between international trade and CO2 emission shows that the absolute value of scale effect and technical effect increases and the structural effect decreases after China's entry into WTO, but the extent of environmental degradation is greater than that of the structural and technical effects on the environment. Therefore, the adverse effects of international trade on China's CO2 emissions after China's entry into WTO .FEH and PHH are all established in China. However, environmental regulation plays a leading role, resulting in structural effects on carbon emissions.
In view of the conclusion of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward the policy suggestions of carbon emission reduction in China from the aspects of industrial structure, energy intensity, primary energy consumption structure, urbanization factors, environmental regulation and international trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F124;F752;F205

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