本文選題：兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性��； 參考：《數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：研究目標(biāo):兩岸生產(chǎn)分工和貿(mào)易往來對(duì)于兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。研究方法:基于一個(gè)典型經(jīng)濟(jì)體間實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期模型框架的沖擊響應(yīng)分析與實(shí)驗(yàn)?zāi)M分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)仍然存在較大差異,其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體才是中國(guó)臺(tái)灣宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的主要外部沖擊來源;兩岸技術(shù)沖擊相關(guān)性對(duì)于兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性的形成發(fā)揮了關(guān)鍵作用;不論在雙邊貿(mào)易,還是雙向投資方面,兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系都僅處于"淺層"相互依存狀態(tài),兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性也以間接性、表象性為主要特征。研究創(chuàng)新:將動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡分析范式應(yīng)用于兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)周期協(xié)動(dòng)性問題研究。研究?jī)r(jià)值:揭示了兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)相互依存的內(nèi)在特征,為旨在推動(dòng)兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系良性發(fā)展的政策設(shè)計(jì)提供了新的參照系。
[Abstract]:Research objective: the transmission mechanism of cross-straits production division and trade relation to cross-straits economic cycle. Methods: shock response analysis and experimental simulation analysis based on the real economic cycle model framework of a typical economy. It is found that there are still great differences in the economic structure between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and other economies are the main sources of external shocks for the macroeconomic fluctuations of Taiwan and China. The correlation of technology impact between the two sides of the strait plays a key role in the formation of cross-straits economic cycle cooperativeness. In terms of bilateral trade and two-way investment, cross-strait economic relations are only in a "shallow" state of interdependence. Cross-straits business cycle coordination is also characterized by indirect and representational characteristics. Research innovation: applying dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis paradigm to cross-straits business cycle coordination. Research value: it reveals the inherent characteristics of economic interdependence between the two sides of the strait and provides a new frame of reference for the policy design aimed at promoting the sound development of cross-strait economic relations.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué)臺(tái)灣研究院兩岸關(guān)系和平發(fā)展協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)重點(diǎn)研究基地重大項(xiàng)目“新形勢(shì)下兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)融合發(fā)展的動(dòng)力機(jī)制研究” 福建省“高等學(xué)校新世紀(jì)優(yōu)秀人才支持計(jì)劃”資助
【分類號(hào)】：F127

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