本文選題：云南 + 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)　； 參考：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：目前,世界人口增長快速,各國的經(jīng)濟、城鎮(zhèn)化也都在持續(xù)發(fā)展,導(dǎo)致能源資源消耗不斷增加。而在能源和資源消費的過程中,二氧化碳的排放也在逐年的增加,致使全球氣候在變暖,已經(jīng)嚴重影響到人們的生存環(huán)境。所以,各國在環(huán)境問題領(lǐng)域達成了某些共識,如要降低溫室氣體的產(chǎn)生、要積極探索人類經(jīng)濟活動的低碳化發(fā)展模式。各國能源消費構(gòu)成、經(jīng)濟增長速度、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式以及污染釋放物的多少在很大程度上是由該國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)層次決定的。經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式粗放,處于工業(yè)化的初級階段,能源消耗量大,利用率低下,碳排放量大,環(huán)境污染嚴重,都說明產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展的層次低。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)層次越高,能源消費會減小,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占的比重也相應(yīng)降低,碳排放量也隨之下降。從最新的研究成果知,各國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的構(gòu)成狀況對碳排放的影響相當大,要實現(xiàn)碳排放下降的目標,重點是各產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化。但是目前針對分析云南地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對碳排放影響的文獻較少,因此,在低碳約束下,該研究對云南產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化具有非常重大的意義。本文構(gòu)建向量自回歸模型,對云南三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與碳排放關(guān)系進行實證分析,結(jié)果表明二者存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系,從碳排放的脈沖響應(yīng)結(jié)果知:從長期看,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的低碳化發(fā)展有利于碳排放的減少;不論短期還是長期,來自第二產(chǎn)業(yè)變化的沖擊對碳排放的影響均表現(xiàn)為負面抑制作用,說明隨著第二產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化,碳排放在不斷減少;從短期看,云南第三產(chǎn)業(yè)對碳排放的影響為先增加后減少,從長期看,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)促進碳排放增加,但沖擊程度不相同。由碳排放的方差分解知:長期來看,云南碳排放變化除來自自身的影響外,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)來源最小、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)來源最大、其次是第三產(chǎn)業(yè),應(yīng)該大力促進二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級從而減少對碳排放來源的影響。在實證研究的基礎(chǔ)上,論文進一步分析云南產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展與碳排放存在的主要問題,提出促進云南產(chǎn)業(yè)與碳排放協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的建議。
[Abstract]:At present, the rapid growth of world population, the economy of all countries, urbanization are also sustainable development, resulting in increasing consumption of energy and resources. In the process of energy and resource consumption, carbon dioxide emissions are also increasing year by year, resulting in global warming, which has seriously affected the living environment of people. Therefore, countries have reached some consensus in the field of environmental problems, such as to reduce the production of greenhouse gases, to actively explore the low carbonization development model of human economic activities. The composition of energy consumption, the rate of economic growth, the mode of economic development and the amount of pollutants released are largely determined by the industrial structure of each country. The extensive mode of economic development, in the initial stage of industrialization, the large energy consumption, low utilization rate, large carbon emissions, serious environmental pollution, all show that the level of industrial structure development is low. The higher the industrial structure, the smaller the energy consumption, the lower the proportion of the secondary industry and the lower the carbon emissions. From the latest research results, it is known that the composition of industrial structure in various countries has a considerable impact on carbon emissions. To achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction, the emphasis is on the optimization of the internal structure of each industry. However, there are few literatures on the impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions in Yunnan. Therefore, under low carbon constraints, this study is of great significance to the optimization of industrial structure in Yunnan. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model is constructed to analyze the relationship between tertiary industrial structure and carbon emissions in Yunnan Province. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between them. The development of low carbonization in the primary industry is conducive to the reduction of carbon emissions. In the short term and long term, the impact of changes from the secondary industry on carbon emissions is negative, indicating that with the optimization of the structure of the secondary industry, In the short term, the effect of the tertiary industry on the carbon emissions in Yunnan is increased first and then decreased. In the long run, the tertiary industry promotes the increase of carbon emissions, but the impact degree is different. From the variance decomposition of carbon emissions, we know that in the long run, the change of carbon emissions in Yunnan is not only from its own influence, but also from the smallest source of the primary industry, the largest from the secondary industry, followed by the tertiary industry, which should be vigorously promoted. The upgrading of the industrial structure reduces the impact on carbon sources. On the basis of empirical research, the paper further analyzes the main problems of Yunnan industry development and carbon emissions, and puts forward some suggestions to promote the coordinated development of Yunnan industry and carbon emissions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X22;F127

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