本文選題：對(duì)外直接投資 + 產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩　； 參考：《湘潭大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入新常態(tài),中國(guó)工業(yè)的產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩問(wèn)題日益嚴(yán)峻,由潛在、局部階段性過(guò)剩轉(zhuǎn)化為實(shí)際、全局長(zhǎng)期性過(guò)剩。而嚴(yán)重的產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩極有可能導(dǎo)致我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)被低端鎖定,陷入“中等收入陷阱”。在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展新常態(tài)的背景下,針對(duì)較多行業(yè)出現(xiàn)的嚴(yán)重產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩現(xiàn)象,實(shí)踐證明通過(guò)增加基礎(chǔ)投資和挖掘國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)需求來(lái)化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的治理效果有限,國(guó)家決定通過(guò)實(shí)施新的對(duì)外開(kāi)放戰(zhàn)略,借助“一帶一路”,通過(guò)對(duì)外直接投資尋求與“一帶一路”相關(guān)國(guó)家進(jìn)行國(guó)際產(chǎn)能合作,利用國(guó)際市場(chǎng)化解產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩,推動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)能走出去。這是我國(guó)解決產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩問(wèn)題的一種新思路。無(wú)疑,走出國(guó)門(mén)的對(duì)外直接投資如何化解產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩?其政策效果如何?不同類(lèi)型行業(yè)的對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的化解效果有何差異?我國(guó)如何利用“一帶一路”政策實(shí)施對(duì)外直接投資來(lái)化解產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩?這些都已成為現(xiàn)階段值得研究的問(wèn)題。本文基于產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移理論、發(fā)展中國(guó)家對(duì)外直接投資理論,構(gòu)建了理論分析框架,著力研究對(duì)外直接投資化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的機(jī)制,從微觀上分析了不同類(lèi)型的OFDI化解產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的機(jī)制,在宏觀上從產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng)、產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)效應(yīng)三個(gè)方面分析了 OFDI化解產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的機(jī)制。本文首先利用隨機(jī)前沿生產(chǎn)函數(shù)法對(duì)我國(guó)36個(gè)工業(yè)行業(yè)的產(chǎn)能利用率進(jìn)行測(cè)度,以此度量行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩程度,分析了中國(guó)工業(yè)行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩現(xiàn)狀。然后,以估計(jì)的產(chǎn)能利用率作為被解釋變量,通過(guò)動(dòng)態(tài)面板估計(jì)方法(SYS GMM)實(shí)證分析了 OFDI對(duì)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的化解作用,并利用交互項(xiàng)分析了產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩其他可作為產(chǎn)業(yè)特征的影響因素對(duì)OFDI的產(chǎn)能過(guò)�；庾饔玫挠绊�。結(jié)合理論分析與實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,本文得出以下結(jié)論:1、我國(guó)工業(yè)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩形勢(shì)嚴(yán)峻,向全局性過(guò)剩發(fā)展。我國(guó)的自來(lái)水的生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)、煤氣的生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)、煤炭采選業(yè)、印刷業(yè)和記錄媒介的復(fù)制、石油加工煉焦及核燃料加工業(yè)、化學(xué)纖維制造業(yè)、電力.熱力的生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)、黑色金屬冶煉及壓延加工業(yè)等23個(gè)工業(yè)行業(yè)面臨嚴(yán)重產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩。從行業(yè)大類(lèi)來(lái)看,電力、燃?xì)夂退纳a(chǎn)及供應(yīng)業(yè)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩指數(shù)最高,采礦業(yè)高度產(chǎn)能過(guò)�，F(xiàn)象也較為嚴(yán)重,而制造業(yè)僅部分行業(yè)高度產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩,總體產(chǎn)能過(guò)�，F(xiàn)象最輕。2、對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)產(chǎn)能利用率持正向影響,對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩具有一定的化解作用。進(jìn)一步利用交互項(xiàng)分析產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩其他可作為產(chǎn)業(yè)特征的影響因素對(duì)OFDI化解產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩效果的影響,我們發(fā)現(xiàn):創(chuàng)新投入比重增加會(huì)強(qiáng)化對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的化解作用,代表創(chuàng)新投入比重高的高技術(shù)行業(yè)的對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)該行業(yè)的產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的化解效果更強(qiáng);行業(yè)壟斷程度提高會(huì)增強(qiáng)對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的化解作用,代表壟斷程度高的行業(yè)的對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)該行業(yè)的產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的化解效果更強(qiáng);國(guó)內(nèi)投資比重提高會(huì)弱化對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的化解作用,代表國(guó)內(nèi)投資比重較高的行業(yè)的對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)該行業(yè)的產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的化解效果更弱。最后,針對(duì)我國(guó)目前對(duì)外直接投資與產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的現(xiàn)狀,結(jié)合本文對(duì)OFDI化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的理論與實(shí)證的研究,就如何通過(guò)對(duì)外直接投資化解產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩提出了六條政策建議。依托“一帶一路”制定境外直接投資戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃,為化解產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩提供政策支持;加大創(chuàng)新投入,鼓勵(lì)高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)的對(duì)外直接投資;轉(zhuǎn)變行業(yè)投資結(jié)構(gòu),減少?lài)?guó)內(nèi)投資,增加對(duì)外直接投資的比重;推進(jìn)全面深化改革,化解體制性產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩;發(fā)揮和強(qiáng)化國(guó)際經(jīng)貿(mào)平臺(tái),帶動(dòng)過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)移;利用“一帶一路”資金融通戰(zhàn)略,為化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能提供資金支持。
[Abstract]:With the Chinese economy entering a new normal state, the problem of overcapacity in China's industry is becoming more and more severe, which is transformed from potential, partial surplus to reality, and the overall overcapacity is over the long term. And the serious overcapacity is likely to lead to the low end of China's economy and a "middle income trap". Serious overcapacity industries appeared, proved by increasing infrastructure investment and mining of domestic consumer demand to resolve the overcapacity governance effect is limited, the state decided through the implementation of the new strategy of opening to the outside world, with the help of "The Belt and Road, through foreign direct investment and seeking" The Belt and Road National International It is a new idea to solve the problem of overcapacity in China. It is a new idea to solve the problem of overcapacity in China. No doubt, how does the foreign direct investment out of the country resolve overcapacity? How is the effect of its policy? How does the effect of FDI to overcapacity in different types of industries be poor In China? How to use "the implementation of foreign direct investment to resolve the overcapacity The Belt and Road" policy? These have become the current problem worthy of study. This paper based on the theory of industrial transfer to developing countries, foreign direct investment theory, construct a theoretical analysis framework, the capacity of foreign direct investment mechanism to resolve overcapacity, This paper analyzes the mechanism of different types of OFDI dissolving overcapacity from microcosmic, and analyzes the mechanism of OFDI dissolving excess capacity from three aspects: industrial transfer effect, industrial association effect and intra industry competition effect. First of all, this paper uses random frontier production function method to measure the productivity utilization ratio of 36 industrial industries in China. In order to measure the excess capacity of industry, this paper analyzes the current situation of overcapacity in China's industrial industry. Then, using the estimated productivity utilization as an explanatory variable, the SYS GMM is used to analyze the dissolving effect of OFDI on overcapacity, and the other can be used to analyze the other industrial characteristics of excess capacity. Influence factors on the overcapacity of OFDI. Combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the following conclusions are drawn: 1, China's industrial overcapacity situation is severe, to global surplus development. The production and supply of tap water in China, coal gas production and supply, coal mining, printing and recording media are complex. 23 industrial industries, such as the production and supply industry such as ferrous metal smelting and calendering and processing industry, are facing serious overcapacity in the production and supply industry of the chemical fiber manufacturing industry, the chemical fiber manufacturing industry, the electric power, the thermal production and supply industry, the black metal smelting and the calendering and processing industries. The image is also more serious, and the manufacturing industry is only part of the industry high capacity overcapacity, the overall overcapacity phenomenon is the lightest.2, the foreign direct investment has a positive impact on the productivity utilization, and the foreign direct investment has a certain dissolving effect on the overcapacity. FDI defuses the effect of overcapacity, we find that the increase in the proportion of innovation investment will strengthen the dissolving effect of foreign direct investment on overcapacity. The foreign direct investment of high technology industry, which represents high proportion of innovation investment, has a stronger effect on the overcapacity of the industry; the increase of industry monopoly will enhance foreign direct investment. The dissolving effect on overcapacity is that the foreign direct investment, which represents high monopoly industries, has a stronger effect on the overcapacity of the industry, and the increase in the proportion of domestic investment will weaken the dissolving effect of foreign direct investment on overcapacity. Finally, in view of the current situation of our country's current FDI and overcapacity, and combining the theoretical and Empirical Study of OFDI to dissolve excess capacity, this paper puts forward six policy suggestions on how to resolve overcapacity through foreign direct investment. To provide policy support for overcapacity overcapacity, increase innovation investment, encourage foreign direct investment in high-tech industries, change industry investment structure, reduce domestic investment and increase the proportion of foreign direct investment; promote comprehensive deepening of reform, disintegrate and disintegrate production capacity overcapacity; play and strengthen the international economic and trade platform to promote the transfer of surplus capacity; "Belt and Road Initiative" financing strategy, in order to resolve the excess capacity to provide financial support.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F424;F125

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