發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-17 04:43

  本文選題：中美經(jīng)濟(jì) + 脫鉤�。� 參考：《現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)探討》2017年06期

【摘要】：結(jié)合中美兩國(guó)1992q2-2015q1季度GDP(SA)數(shù)據(jù),應(yīng)用DCC-GARCH和VAR方法實(shí)證考察中美經(jīng)濟(jì)脫鉤問(wèn)題。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),中美經(jīng)濟(jì)并沒(méi)有脫鉤,而是處于全球生產(chǎn)分工網(wǎng)絡(luò)價(jià)值鏈的不同階段;美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)對(duì)中美經(jīng)濟(jì)周期聯(lián)動(dòng)性的影響要顯著大于中國(guó),美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍是中美經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系主導(dǎo);理論上,中美經(jīng)濟(jì)周期關(guān)聯(lián)性傳導(dǎo)渠道可能有三種:一是國(guó)際貿(mào)易渠道通過(guò)直接效應(yīng)與滯后效應(yīng)從正反兩個(gè)方向產(chǎn)生作用,二是國(guó)際金融資本市場(chǎng)因其充分的流動(dòng)性成為中美經(jīng)濟(jì)周期聯(lián)動(dòng)性的重要載體,三是全球產(chǎn)業(yè)分工渠道通過(guò)產(chǎn)業(yè)梯度與反梯度轉(zhuǎn)移、離岸外包與逆向外包產(chǎn)生周期關(guān)聯(lián)。本文試圖對(duì)當(dāng)下脫鉤問(wèn)題進(jìn)行一定程度的拓展和深化,并以詳實(shí)的數(shù)據(jù)有力的駁斥了"中國(guó)是國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)之源頭"的論調(diào)。
[Abstract]:Based on the 1992q2-2015q1 quarterly 1992q2-2015q1 data of China and the United States, this paper applies DCC-GARCH and VAR methods to examine the economic decoupling between China and the United States. The study found that the Chinese and American economies are not decoupled, but are at different stages of the global division of labor network value chain, and that the impact of US economic fluctuations on the Sino-American business cycle linkage is significantly greater than that of China. In theory, there may be three transmission channels of Sino-US business cycle relevance: one is that international trade channels produce effects from both positive and negative directions through direct effect and lag effect. The second is that the international financial capital market has become an important carrier of the Sino-American business cycle because of its sufficient liquidity. The third is that the global industrial division channels transfer through the industrial gradient and the reverse gradient, and the offshoring and reverse outsourcing produce cycle. This paper attempts to expand and deepen the current decoupling problem to a certain extent, and refutes the argument that "China is the source of international economic fluctuation" with detailed data.
【作者單位】： 安徽財(cái)貿(mào)職業(yè)學(xué)院大位會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院;南京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金一般項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)變和機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):15BJY023) 教育部社會(huì)科學(xué)研究重大課題攻關(guān)項(xiàng)目“TPP外部約束下我國(guó)融入國(guó)際價(jià)值鏈分工戰(zhàn)略研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):16JZD019) 安徽省職業(yè)與成人教育學(xué)會(huì)課題“經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與職業(yè)教育改革創(chuàng)新研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):CCB15002)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F124;F171.2

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本文編號(hào)：2029753