本文選題：能源供給 + 能源需求　； 參考：《浙江工商大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：能源是人類社會發(fā)展和進步所必需的重要物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),它對世界各國經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展與人民生活水平提高起著不可替代的重要作用。中國自改革開放以來,工業(yè)化、城市化快速推進,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)得到極大提升,經(jīng)濟持續(xù)高速增長,取得了世界矚目的成就。在取得巨大經(jīng)濟成就的同時,中國對能源的需求也在急劇增長,已經(jīng)成為世界第一大能源消費國,且能源供需缺口越來越大。中國能源產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨內(nèi)有能源結(jié)構(gòu)不合理、能源利用效率低的憂患,.外有戰(zhàn)略儲備不足、受制于受制于國際能源市場的困境,已經(jīng)制約了中國經(jīng)濟的正常發(fā)展。因此研究能源如何通過能源價格、能源效率影響經(jīng)濟增長以及經(jīng)濟增長又如何反過來影響能源的發(fā)展,對于建設(shè)具有中國特色的能源與經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展道路,具有重要意義。 本文在對能源經(jīng)濟學理論及我國能源供給和需求現(xiàn)狀分析的基礎(chǔ)上,綜合運用各種定量分析方法,從能源消費、能源效率、能源價格三個方面對中國能源與經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系進行了實證分析,并對中國能源的需求進行了預測,提出了中國能源發(fā)展對策。 首先,從能源的總儲量、人均占有量、生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)、資源分布、供給結(jié)構(gòu)等方面分析了我國能源供給的現(xiàn)狀,從能源的消費總量、人均消費量、消費結(jié)構(gòu)、能源效率、對外依存度等方面分析了我國能源需求現(xiàn)狀。在中國能源供給與需求對比的基礎(chǔ)上,分析中國能源存在的問題和面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。 其次,根據(jù)構(gòu)建的能源約束下經(jīng)濟增長模型對中國能源消費與經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系進行了實證分析,結(jié)果表明中國能源消費、資本、勞動力與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間存在長期均衡關(guān)系,中國能源消費對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展有著顯著影響,存在能源消費到經(jīng)濟的單向因果關(guān)系。 第三,應(yīng)用分位數(shù)回歸和指數(shù)分解法分析了能源強度的影響因素。中國能源強度的影響因素主要有產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、居民消費、FDI和能源消費結(jié)構(gòu),而能源價格因被政府管制而扭曲,未發(fā)揮出應(yīng)有的市場調(diào)節(jié)作用,對能源強度的作用并不顯著。運用收斂模型對能源效率與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系進行了實證分析,隨著區(qū)域間經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平差異的收斂,地區(qū)能源強度上的差距也存在收斂。 第四,運用因果關(guān)系檢驗、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解對中國能源價格與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系進行了實證分析,能源價格與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展存在長期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,僅存在經(jīng)濟增長到能源價格的單向因果關(guān)系。 第五,根據(jù)能源需求影響因素,運用情景分析法,參考中國未來發(fā)展目標,合理確定中國未來發(fā)展的三種情景,對2010一2020年中國能源需求進行預測。 最后提出了中國未來能源發(fā)展對策：推進能源節(jié)約措施、優(yōu)化能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)、建立和完善石油儲備體系以及積極開發(fā)新能源。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important material foundation necessary for the development and progress of human society. It plays an irreplaceable role in the economic and social development and the improvement of people's living standards in the world. Since the reform and opening to the outside world, China has made great progress in industrialization, urbanization, industrial structure, sustained and rapid economic growth, and has made remarkable achievements in the world. At the same time, China's energy demand is growing rapidly, and it has become the world's largest energy consumer, and the gap between energy supply and demand is growing. China's energy industry is faced with irrational energy structure and low energy efficiency. Lack of foreign strategic reserves, constrained by the plight of the international energy market, has restricted the normal development of China's economy. Therefore, it is of great significance to study how energy affects economic growth through energy price, energy efficiency and how economic growth affects energy development in turn, which is of great significance to the construction of sustainable energy and economic development path with Chinese characteristics. Based on the analysis of the theory of energy economics and the current situation of energy supply and demand in China, this paper synthetically applies various quantitative analysis methods to analyze energy consumption and energy efficiency. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between energy and economic growth in China from three aspects of energy price, forecasts the energy demand of China, and puts forward some countermeasures for China's energy development. First of all, from the total reserves of energy, per capita possession, production structure, distribution of resources, supply structure and other aspects of the analysis of energy supply in China, from the total amount of energy consumption, per capita consumption, consumption structure, energy efficiency. The current situation of China's energy demand is analyzed in terms of external dependence. Based on the comparison of China's energy supply and demand, this paper analyzes the problems and challenges of China's energy supply. Secondly, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China is empirically analyzed according to the economic growth model under energy constraints. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between energy consumption, capital, labor force and economic development in China. China's energy consumption has a significant impact on economic development, there is a one-way causal relationship between energy consumption and economy. Thirdly, the influence factors of energy intensity were analyzed by quantile regression and exponential decomposition. The main influencing factors of China's energy intensity are industrial structure, resident consumption FDI and energy consumption structure, but the energy price is distorted by the government regulation and does not play the role of market regulation, so the effect on energy intensity is not significant. The relationship between energy efficiency and economic development is analyzed by using convergence model. With the convergence of regional economic development level, the regional energy intensity gap also converges. Fourthly, using causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, the relationship between energy price and economic development in China is analyzed empirically, and there is a long-term stable relationship between energy price and economic development. There is only one-way causality between economic growth and energy prices. Fifthly, according to the influencing factors of energy demand, using scenario analysis method and referring to the future development goal of China, three scenarios of China's future development are reasonably determined, and the energy demand of China from 2010 to 2020 is forecasted. Finally, the future energy development countermeasures of China are put forward: promoting energy saving measures, optimizing energy consumption structure, establishing and perfecting petroleum reserve system and actively developing new energy.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.2;F124

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本文編號：2027998