發(fā)布時間：2018-06-09 11:54

  本文選題：信息消費 + 經(jīng)濟增長��； 參考：《北京郵電大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：信息技術的進步、信息產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展、部分信息產(chǎn)品和服務價格的下降、居民生活水平的提高,這一系列因素促成了信息消費成為我國消費領域的熱點問題。在我國經(jīng)濟外需不足、內(nèi)需增長乏力的背景下,信息消費與經(jīng)濟增長的關系,以及如何在拉動經(jīng)濟總量較快增加的同時,實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構的優(yōu)化升級,已經(jīng)成為我國現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的關鍵問題之一,獲得學術界廣泛的關注。目前,國際理論界沒有與“信息消費”完全對應的概念；國內(nèi)的理論研究基本上處于概念探討層面,目前仍然各執(zhí)一詞,尚未達成共識,系統(tǒng)性、深入性的理論成果明顯欠缺；實證研究大多屬于為現(xiàn)狀分析,較少討論發(fā)展趨勢,所有研究中都默認信息消費在未來的快速發(fā)展,幾乎沒有定量研究,對其與經(jīng)濟增長互動關系的研究則更為罕見。這不僅影響了信息消費對經(jīng)濟增長的解釋能力,而且造成了分析框架的缺失,有鑒于此,構建信息消費的層次結(jié)構分析框架,并揭示居民信息消費對于經(jīng)濟增長和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構的作用機制,對學術研究和政府決策都具有重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義。 在總結(jié)前人研究成果的基礎上,論文圍繞“為什么”和“怎么樣”推動信息消費兩個中心問題展開研究。論文從基本概念和構成出發(fā),提出了信息消費的層次結(jié)構模型,并以此模型為分析框架,進行了深入細致的定性分析和實證研究。首先,在分析發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀的基礎上,預測了我國居民信息消費的發(fā)展趨勢；其次,分析了居民信息消費對經(jīng)濟增長的影響機理,并使用多種計量分析方法對我國居民信息消費對經(jīng)濟增長的作用進行了定量分析；最后,研究了居民信息消費影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構的作用機制,并嘗試使用投入產(chǎn)出分析方法進行驗證。通過上述分析,論文得到了一些有意義的結(jié)論： 第一,論文提出了信息消費的層次結(jié)構模型,從信息內(nèi)容、信息終端、信息網(wǎng)絡、信息軟件四個層次研究了居民信息消費及其對相關產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響。該模型為居民信息消費的構成提供了理論依據(jù),也為后續(xù)章節(jié)的研究奠定了理論基礎。 第二,基于上述模型,論文擬合了2013年至2020年我國居民信息消費的發(fā)展趨勢,從消費規(guī)模、消費結(jié)構、消費系數(shù)角度預測了未來的變動情況：我國居民城鄉(xiāng)信息消費支出將保持快速增長的趨勢,年均增長率達9.6%；消費結(jié)構將更趨于合理；信息消費系數(shù)趨于穩(wěn)定；城鄉(xiāng)消費差距將進一步擴大。 第三,論文從直接作用和間接作用兩個層面定性研究了居民信息消費對經(jīng)濟增長的影響機理；使用向量自回歸模型、分位數(shù)模型、面板數(shù)據(jù)模型等計量方法,從消費總量和消費結(jié)構兩個角度,基于全國、城鄉(xiāng)和地區(qū)三個層面,驗證了居民信息消費對經(jīng)濟增長的影響具有乘數(shù)效應、滯后效應和差異效應。主要結(jié)論如下：(1)居民信息消費對經(jīng)濟增長的彈性系數(shù)為0.8856,影響顯著；這種影響具有滯后效應,隨著時間的推移有逐漸擴大的趨勢；僅從實際消費額看,兩者的關系主要表現(xiàn)為信息消費拉動經(jīng)濟增長,而經(jīng)濟增長并未充分帶動信息消費。(2)城鎮(zhèn)居民信息消費對經(jīng)濟增長的影響要大于農(nóng)村,隨著經(jīng)濟總量的增加,居民信息消費對經(jīng)濟增長的影響略有減弱。(3)居民信息消費對31個省市的經(jīng)濟增長都有正向影響,但地區(qū)之間的差異較大,中西部地區(qū)居民信息消費對經(jīng)濟增長的作用整體上大于東部。(4)在消費結(jié)構中,教育文化娛樂支出比通訊支出對經(jīng)濟增長的拉動作用更顯著；農(nóng)村通訊和教育文化娛樂支出對經(jīng)濟的拉動作用差距較大,而城鎮(zhèn)則較為均衡。通過上述分析,印證了發(fā)展居民信息消費的必要性。 第四,論文在定性分析居民信息消費與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構互動關系的基礎上,以城鎮(zhèn)為例,利用投入產(chǎn)出模型,依據(jù)居民信息消費對相關產(chǎn)業(yè)“誘發(fā)的增加值”、“生產(chǎn)誘發(fā)系數(shù)”和“對低能耗部門的誘發(fā)效率”三個指標,從三次產(chǎn)業(yè)和42個部門兩個層面,驗證了居民信息消費對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構存在優(yōu)化作用。主要結(jié)論如下：(1)居民信息消費對第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的誘發(fā)系數(shù)較高,說明發(fā)展信息消費能提高產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構優(yōu)化率；(2)隨著信息消費規(guī)模的擴大,這種優(yōu)化作用會越來越好。(3)居民信息消費對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構的優(yōu)化作用比居民消費總體的作用更好。(4)較之通訊支出,教育文化娛樂支出對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構優(yōu)化的效率更高。(5)按對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構優(yōu)化作用從大到小對信息消費細項排序,依次為通訊服務、教育、文教娛樂服務、通訊工具、文教娛樂用品和教材,說明在保持信息消費支出規(guī)模不變的情況下,提高誘發(fā)效率較高的細項的比重,能更有效地推動產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構優(yōu)化。
[Abstract]:The development of information technology , the development of information industry , the decline of some information products and service prices and the improvement of the living standard of the residents have contributed to the hot problems in the consumption field of our country .
At present , the theoretical research at home is basically at the level of concept discussion , and there is still no consensus , systematicness and indepth of theoretical results .
The empirical research mostly belongs to the analysis of the present situation , and the development trend is seldom discussed . The research on the relationship between the information consumption and the economic growth is much more rare . This not only affects the explanation ability of the information consumption to the economic growth , but also causes the lack of the analysis framework , and reveals the mechanism of the residents ' information consumption to the economic growth and the industrial structure , and has important theoretical and practical significance for academic research and government decision - making .

On the basis of summarizing the previous research results , the paper studies the two central issues of " why " and " how " to push the information consumption . From the basic concept and composition , this paper puts forward the hierarchy model of information consumption , and makes a detailed qualitative analysis and demonstration research based on this model . First , on the basis of analyzing the present situation of development , this paper forecasts the development trend of information consumption in our country .
Secondly , the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of resident information consumption on economic growth , and makes quantitative analysis on the effect of information consumption on economic growth in our country .
Finally , the mechanism of influencing the industrial structure of resident information consumption is studied , and the input - output analysis method is tried to validate it . Through the above analysis , some meaningful conclusions are obtained :

First , the paper puts forward the hierarchy model of information consumption , from four levels of information content , information terminal , information network and information software to study the influence of resident information consumption and its influence on the related industries . The model provides theoretical basis for the composition of resident information consumption and lays a theoretical foundation for the study of subsequent chapters .

Secondly , on the basis of the above model , the development trend of information consumption in our country from 2013 to 2020 is fitted . From the angle of consumption scale , consumption structure and consumption coefficient , the future changes are predicted : the consumption expenditure of urban and rural information in our country will keep the trend of rapid growth , with annual growth rate reaching 9.6 % ;
Consumption structure will be more reasonable ;
the information consumption coefficient tends to be stable ;
The gap between urban and rural consumption will be expanded further .

Thirdly , the thesis qualitatively studies the influence mechanism of resident information consumption on economic growth from two aspects : direct action and indirect effect .
Based on the three aspects of total consumption and consumption structure , the influence of resident information consumption on economic growth has multiplier effect , lag effect and difference effect . The main conclusions are as follows : ( 1 ) The elastic coefficient of resident information consumption to economic growth is 0.8856 , which has significant impact ;
This effect has a hysteresis effect , and gradually increases with time .
( 2 ) Residents ' information consumption has a positive impact on economic growth . ( 3 ) Residents ' information consumption has positive impact on economic growth . ( 3 ) Residents ' information consumption has a positive impact on economic growth .
The rural communication and educational and cultural entertainment expenditure has a great gap on the economy , while the town is more balanced . Through the above analysis , the necessity of developing resident information consumption is confirmed .

Fourthly , based on the analysis of the relationship between the consumption of information and industrial structure of the residents , the paper demonstrates the optimization of the industrial structure from the three industries and 42 sectors by using the input - output model , based on the three indexes of the " added value " , " production - induced coefficient " and " induced efficiency of the low - energy - energy sector " . The main conclusions are as follows : ( 1 ) The consumption of resident information is higher than that of the second industry and the third industry , indicating that the development information consumption can improve the optimization rate of industrial structure ;
( 2 ) With the expansion of information consumption scale , this kind of optimization will be better . ( 3 ) The optimization of industrial structure is better than that of resident consumption .
【學位授予單位】：北京郵電大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F49;F121.3;F124

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本文編號：1999639