本文選題：宏觀經(jīng)濟波動 + 經(jīng)濟政策不確定性　； 參考：《財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟》2017年01期

【摘要】：為量化分析經(jīng)濟政策不確定性對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟波動的影響,本文在一個基于標準宏觀經(jīng)濟理論的SVAR模型中,構(gòu)建了一種由常規(guī)符號約束條件和特定零約束條件相結(jié)合的混合識別法,以同時識別出政策不確定性沖擊和需求沖擊、供給沖擊、貨幣政策沖擊等三種傳統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)沖擊。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)經(jīng)濟政策不確定性沖擊并不是中國經(jīng)濟波動的主要因素,但它表現(xiàn)出類似于負向需求沖擊的特征,且呈現(xiàn)通脹效應(yīng)強于產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)的中國特色;(2)樣本期內(nèi),需求沖擊是驅(qū)動中國經(jīng)濟波動的首要因素,供給沖擊次之;(3)供給沖擊是引致價格水平上漲的主要原因,貨幣沖擊起到"推波助瀾"的作用,而政策不確定性沖擊則抑制了價格水平的進一步上升。本文研究為有關(guān)經(jīng)濟政策不確定性的宏觀經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)討論提供了來自最大發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)驗證據(jù),也為"宏觀經(jīng)濟政策要穩(wěn)"的政策基調(diào)提供了支持。
[Abstract]:In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomic fluctuations in China, this paper presents a SVAR model based on standard macroeconomic theory. In this paper, a hybrid identification method, which combines the conventional symbol constraint and the specific zero constraint, is constructed to identify three traditional structural shocks, namely, policy uncertainty shock and demand shock, supply shock and monetary policy shock. The study found that the uncertain impact of economic policy is not the main factor of China's economic fluctuation, but it shows the characteristics similar to the negative demand shock, and the inflation effect is stronger than the output effect in the sample period. Demand shock is the primary factor driving China's economic fluctuation, and supply shock is the second most important factor leading to the rise in the price level. Currency shocks play a role of "driving up the flames". The impact of policy uncertainty has restrained a further rise in price levels. This study provides empirical evidence from the largest developing countries for the discussion of macroeconomic effects of economic policy uncertainty, and also supports the policy tone of "macroeconomic policy should be stable".
【作者單位】： 浙江理工大學(xué)經(jīng)濟管理學(xué)院;中山大學(xué)嶺南學(xué)院;浙江理工大學(xué)浙江省生態(tài)文明研究中心;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金青年項目“政策不確定性的經(jīng)濟波動效應(yīng)研究:測度、事實和機制”(71403250);國家自然科學(xué)基金常規(guī)面上項目“中國的‘中部迷失’問題:典型事實、形成機理及宏觀后果”(71673253) 浙江省自然科學(xué)基金青年項目“中國貨幣政策沖擊效應(yīng)研究:政策工具視角”(LQ14G030026)
【分類號】：F124.8
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本文編號：1981771