本文關鍵詞：美國經(jīng)濟失衡對人民幣匯率及中國經(jīng)濟的影響——兼論人民幣匯率制度的選擇，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

美國經(jīng)濟失衡對人民幣匯率及中國經(jīng)濟的影響——兼論人民幣匯率制度的選擇

Impacts of U.S. Economic Imbalances on RMB and China＇ s Economy --On the Choice of RMB Exchange Rate System

[1]

Zhou Ke （ School of Economics, Southwest University for Nationalities 610041 ）

西南民族大學經(jīng)濟學院,610041

文章摘要：基于匯率政治經(jīng)濟學的視角，本文構建了一個二值因變量模型，檢驗了美國經(jīng)濟失衡對美元匯率的影響。結果表明，自20世紀70年代初期以來，當美國經(jīng)濟同時陷入內(nèi)外部失衡時，美國干預外匯市場使美元貶值的概率將提高23—32％。這意味著，在美國經(jīng)濟遇到問題時，美國就可能會要求貿(mào)易伙伴國的貨幣升值，這與其他國家的貨幣是否低估無關。通過構建含有升值壓力的宏觀開放經(jīng)濟模型，本文研究了不同匯率體制下升值壓力對經(jīng)濟的影響。分析表明，在兩種體制下，升值壓力都會導致實際匯率升值和利率下降。但是，固定匯率體制下的經(jīng)濟傾向于出現(xiàn)過熱，，而浮動匯率體制下的經(jīng)濟則容易出現(xiàn)收縮。實證結果證實了上述分析。從2000年第1季度到2011年第4季度，人民幣升值壓力每增加一個百分點，中關通貨膨脹率之差就會上升0．41個百分點。理論和實證的分析表明，改變匯率制度并不能有效解決人民幣匯率問題，關鍵是要消除人民幣升值壓力。

Abstr：This paper examines impacts of U. S. economic imbalances on the dollar exchange rate from the perspective of political economy. We also construct a binary dependent variable （BDV） model to verify our consults. We find that when the U. S. economic internal and external imbalances emerged at the same time, the probability that the U. S. government will intervene in the foreign exchange market to depreciate the dollar will increase 23 -32 percentage points. This means that the United States externalizes the internal problems through affecting exchange rates. Based on an opening macroeconomics framework, this paper also examines influences of appreciation pressures on economy under different exchange rate systems. We find that under both systems appreciation pressures will cause real exchange rate to appreciate and interest rate to fall. However, the economy tends to be overheating under the fixed system and to be shrinking under the flexible system. The empirical results support the above conclusions.

文章關鍵詞：

Keyword：:Exchange Rate Systems Appreciation Pressures RMB the Yen Opening Macroeconomics Model

  本文關鍵詞：美國經(jīng)濟失衡對人民幣匯率及中國經(jīng)濟的影響——兼論人民幣匯率制度的選擇，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。