發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-24 05:07

  本文選題：保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)��； 參考：《中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年06期

【摘要】：研究證實(shí)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有重要作用,相對(duì)于已有的大部分基于國(guó)別層面的分析,筆者利用省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù)檢驗(yàn)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展對(duì)各省份經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)的研究具有明顯的"同質(zhì)性",有助于拓展我們對(duì)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的認(rèn)識(shí)。以1999—2014年我國(guó)30個(gè)省份的數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),利用門限回歸模型檢驗(yàn)了保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展對(duì)各省份經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是否存在非線性影響。計(jì)量模型借鑒Hansen(1999)提出的"門限回歸模型"(threshold regression model),根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)的內(nèi)在信息識(shí)別出具體門限水平,得到最優(yōu)分組。文中選取人均實(shí)際收入為門限變量,通過(guò)檢驗(yàn)把各省份分為低收入地區(qū)、中低收入地區(qū)、中高收入地區(qū)和高收入地區(qū)四組。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響并非線性;當(dāng)某省份人均收入水平較低時(shí),保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響并不顯著,但隨著人均收入水平的提升,保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)開(kāi)始產(chǎn)生顯著的、遞增的促進(jìn)作用。分別考慮壽險(xiǎn)業(yè)和財(cái)險(xiǎn)業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用,得到一致的結(jié)果。本文的結(jié)論印證了"經(jīng)濟(jì)越發(fā)展,保險(xiǎn)越重要"這一論斷。
[Abstract]:Research confirms that insurance development plays an important role in economic growth, as opposed to most of the existing country-level analyses. The author uses provincial panel data to test that the research on the effect of insurance development on the economic growth of each province has obvious "homogeneity", which is helpful to expand our understanding of the relationship between insurance development and economic growth. Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 1999 to 2014, the threshold regression model is used to test whether the development of insurance has a nonlinear effect on the economic growth of each province. Based on the threshold regression model proposed by Hansenn (1999), the threshold regression model is used to identify the specific threshold level according to the internal information of the data, and the optimal grouping is obtained. In this paper, the real income per capita is selected as the threshold variable, and the provinces are divided into four groups: low income area, low income area, middle and high income area and high income area. The empirical results show that the impact of insurance development on economic growth is nonlinear. When the level of per capita income of a province is low, the impact of insurance development on economic growth is not significant, but with the increase of per capita income level, Insurance development to economic growth began to have a significant, incremental role in promoting. The effects of life insurance and property insurance on economic growth are considered respectively, and the results are consistent. The conclusion of this paper confirms the claim that insurance is more important as the economy develops.
【作者單位】： 中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)中國(guó)金融發(fā)展研究院;對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)保險(xiǎn)學(xué)院;中信富通融資租賃有限公司;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目“農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)的財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼政策對(duì)農(nóng)戶參保的激勵(lì)效應(yīng)測(cè)度及最優(yōu)補(bǔ)貼水平研究:以種植業(yè)為例”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):71573041) 保監(jiān)會(huì)部級(jí)研究課題“保險(xiǎn)業(yè)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革及監(jiān)管研究”
【分類號(hào)】：F840

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5 g娣，

本文編號(hào)：1795265