本文選題：居民消費 + 過度敏感性　； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：消費問題是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變關(guān)注的熱點。而我國轉(zhuǎn)型期的重要實際是城鄉(xiāng)二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)特征顯著,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展明顯不平衡,城鄉(xiāng)居民都面臨著不同環(huán)境和制度,消費行為方式存在很大差異。因此,居民消費研究極有必要對城鄉(xiāng)進(jìn)行區(qū)別對待,并進(jìn)行差異比較。城鄉(xiāng)居民消費比較,僅用單一假說進(jìn)行分析,可能忽視了城鄉(xiāng)在消費環(huán)境和假設(shè)方面的不同,顯然是不合理的。因此有必要按照消費理論的發(fā)展歷程,劃分不同理論假說,綜合檢驗城鄉(xiāng)居民消費的差異性。按照消費理論的發(fā)展歷程,分別用絕對收入假說、相對收入假說和持久性收入假說等收入假說和不確定性理論的λ模型和預(yù)防性儲蓄理論對城鄉(xiāng)居民消費差異性進(jìn)行檢驗。在這過程采用的是1992-2012年21年間31個省、直轄市和自治區(qū)的城鄉(xiāng)面板數(shù)據(jù),并用協(xié)整理論檢驗變量間的長期均衡關(guān)系,然后利用面板模型分析。在總量數(shù)據(jù)分析后,本文又進(jìn)行了結(jié)構(gòu)分析,利用收入結(jié)構(gòu)不同收入對消費影響進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)論表明居民消費行為既受到當(dāng)期收入又受到持久性收入的重要影響,但重要的差異性是收入假說下農(nóng)村居民消費收入彈性高于城鎮(zhèn)居民,農(nóng)村居民受到持久性收入和消費習(xí)慣的影響強于當(dāng)期收入,而城鎮(zhèn)居民消費受到當(dāng)期收入的影響強于持久性收入；城鎮(zhèn)居民更符合絕對收入假說情況,對預(yù)期收入變動敏感性要強于農(nóng)村,農(nóng)村居民則是受到理性預(yù)期持久收入影響大于城鎮(zhèn)；城鄉(xiāng)居民面對收入的不確定性,都有很強的儲蓄動機(jī),全國范圍和東部城鎮(zhèn)要高于農(nóng)村,但經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度整體上與預(yù)防性動機(jī)負(fù)相關(guān)；城鎮(zhèn)居民非基本收入占比上升,加強了消費對當(dāng)期收入變化的敏感性。農(nóng)村居民受到工資性收入持續(xù)上升,使得農(nóng)村居民消費行更偏持久性和穩(wěn)定。最后根據(jù)結(jié)論給出政策建議。
[Abstract]:The consumption problem is the hot spot which our country economy develops the pattern transformation to pay close attention.But the important reality in the transition period of our country is that the characteristics of urban-rural dual economic structure are remarkable, the economic development is obviously unbalanced, the urban and rural residents are faced with different environments and institutions, and there are great differences in consumption behavior.Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish between urban and rural areas in the study of resident consumption.Comparing the consumption of urban and rural residents with a single hypothesis may ignore the differences between urban and rural consumption environment and assumptions, which is obviously unreasonable.Therefore, it is necessary to divide different theoretical hypotheses according to the development course of consumption theory, and comprehensively test the difference of consumption between urban and rural residents.According to the development of consumption theory, the difference of consumption between urban and rural residents is tested by the 位 model of absolute income hypothesis, relative income hypothesis and persistent income hypothesis, and the theory of precautionary savings.In this process, the urban and rural panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 1992 to 2012 are used, and the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables is tested by co-collation theory, and then the panel model is used to analyze them.After the total amount data analysis, this article carries on the structure analysis, uses the income structure different income to carry on the analysis to the consumption influence.The conclusion shows that the consumption behavior of rural residents is affected by both current income and persistent income, but the important difference is that the elasticity of consumption income of rural residents is higher than that of urban residents under the income hypothesis.Rural residents are more affected by persistent income and consumption habits than current income, while urban residents are more affected by current income than persistent income, and urban residents are more consistent with the absolute income hypothesis.The sensitivity to expected income changes is stronger than that in rural areas, while rural residents are more affected by rational expectation of lasting income than urban areas, and urban and rural residents have strong savings motives in the face of income uncertainty.The national and eastern cities and towns are higher than those in rural areas, but the degree of economic development is negatively correlated with preventive motivation, and the proportion of non-basic income of urban residents increases, which strengthens the sensitivity of consumption to the change of income in the current period.Rural residents'wage income continues to rise, making rural residents' consumption more persistent and stable.Finally, the policy recommendations are given according to the conclusion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F126.1

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本文編號：1734932