本文選題：人口結(jié)構(gòu) + 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)�。� 參考：《安徽工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口是人類社會(huì)發(fā)展的主導(dǎo)因素,其結(jié)構(gòu)狀況不僅是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)重要的要素稟賦,而且通過勞動(dòng)力構(gòu)成、素質(zhì)和需求結(jié)構(gòu)等層面影響著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的方向,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、城鄉(xiāng)結(jié)構(gòu)、文化結(jié)構(gòu)、性別結(jié)構(gòu)等,制約著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展與優(yōu)化方向。此外,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整也波及人口結(jié)構(gòu),對(duì)人口的空間流動(dòng)、人力資本積累等產(chǎn)生聯(lián)動(dòng)效應(yīng)。因此,人口結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的耦合關(guān)系值得我們深入研究。如何促使人口結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)調(diào)互動(dòng)、良性發(fā)展已成為影響我國社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重大命題。基于物理學(xué)中的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度模型,經(jīng)過構(gòu)建指標(biāo)體系—數(shù)據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化—指標(biāo)賦權(quán)—綜合水平指數(shù)計(jì)算—耦合度模型—協(xié)調(diào)度模型等一系列步驟后,計(jì)算出人口結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)間的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度。分析結(jié)果表明:總體處于勉強(qiáng)協(xié)調(diào)階段,省份之間耦合協(xié)調(diào)度差異較大。從發(fā)展趨勢(shì)來看,我國人口結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度不斷提高。人口結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度存在地區(qū)差異,東部地區(qū)高于中、西地區(qū)。東部地區(qū)需要在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)中優(yōu)化人口結(jié)構(gòu),中部地區(qū)加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí),西部地區(qū)要精準(zhǔn)定位、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。借助于靜態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型、靜態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型和空間計(jì)量模型對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與耦合協(xié)調(diào)度進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):人口結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)間耦合協(xié)調(diào)度對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有促進(jìn)作用,耦合協(xié)調(diào)度越高,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)就越高;耦合協(xié)調(diào)度還存在著空間相關(guān)性,一個(gè)地區(qū)的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度對(duì)其相鄰地區(qū)具有“空間溢出”作用。總體上來說,我國人口結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)間耦合協(xié)調(diào)度程度不高。根據(jù)上述研究結(jié)論,得到以下啟示:第一、積極應(yīng)對(duì)人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化,形成“新的人口紅利”;第二、加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)人口結(jié)構(gòu)回饋?zhàn)饔?第三、因地制宜,注重人口結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)間的均衡發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Population is the leading factor in the development of human society. Its structure is not only the important factor endowment of industrial structure, but also influences the direction of industrial structure transformation and upgrading through the structure of labor force, quality and demand structure, and the age structure of population.Urban and rural structure, cultural structure and gender structure restrict the development and optimization of industrial structure.In addition, the adjustment of industrial structure also affects the population structure, which has a linkage effect on the spatial flow of population and the accumulation of human capital.Therefore, the coupling relationship between population structure and industrial structure is worth our in-depth study.How to promote the harmonious interaction between population structure and economic structure and the benign development has become an important proposition that affects the sustainable development of social economy in our country.Based on the coupling coordination degree model in physics, after constructing a series of steps, such as index system, data standardization, index weighting, comprehensive level index calculation, coupling degree model and coordination degree model, etc.The degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and industrial structure is calculated.The results show that the overall level of coordination is at the stage of barely coordinated, and the degree of coupling and coordination varies greatly between provinces.According to the development trend, the degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and industrial structure in China is increasing.There are regional differences in the degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and industrial structure, which are higher in the east than in the central and western regions.The eastern region needs to optimize the population structure in the upgrading of industrial structure, the central region to accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure, and the western region to precisely position and develop harmoniously.With the help of static panel data model, static panel data model and spatial econometric model, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the degree of coordination between economic growth and coupling. The results show that the degree of coupling coordination between population structure and industrial structure can promote economic growth.The higher the degree of coupling coordination is, the higher the effect of economic growth is, and the degree of coupling coordination also has spatial correlation, and the degree of coupling coordination of a region has a "spatial spillover" effect on its adjacent areas.Generally speaking, the degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and industrial structure is not high.According to the above conclusions, the following revelations are obtained: first, to actively respond to the changes in population structure and form a "new demographic dividend"; second, to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure and expand the role of industrial structure in giving feedback to the population structure; third, to take measures according to local conditions.Pay attention to the balanced development between population structure and industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2;F121.3

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