本文選題：調(diào)整人口就業(yè)年限　切入點(diǎn)：人口結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《上海工程技術(shù)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著人口老齡化社會的到來以及人均預(yù)期壽命的延長,我國早期規(guī)定的退休制度已遭到社會發(fā)展的挑戰(zhàn),延長人口就業(yè)年限將成為必然的發(fā)展趨勢。人口就業(yè)年限與人口的預(yù)期壽命、勞動強(qiáng)度以及受教育年限密切相關(guān),對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展尤其是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長起著非常重要的作用。調(diào)整就業(yè)年限作為影響勞動人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動的因素直接影響著人口紅利及人力資本進(jìn)而影響著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。 調(diào)整人口就業(yè)年限方式主要有直接延長法定退休年齡、“分步走”延長退休年齡和實(shí)行彈性退休制度等方式。由于調(diào)整的年限的不同不同的方式會對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長造成不同的影響。調(diào)整人口就業(yè)年限主要是延長退休年齡進(jìn)從而勞動年齡人口比重的提高,通過增加勞動供給作用于經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出,促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。調(diào)整人口年齡就業(yè)年限的變動對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)主要表現(xiàn)在兩個(gè)方面,其一是作為生產(chǎn)要素對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的直接作用即勞動力數(shù)量和勞動力參與的影響；其次是其外部性作用即指勞動力與資本相結(jié)合通過人力資本對含有一定技術(shù)水平的資本的使用提高了一定資本存量提供的服務(wù)量,這就表現(xiàn)為人力資本對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的間接作用。 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長離不開勞動力市場的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,想要精確的測算出調(diào)整就業(yè)年限對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響首先需要測算調(diào)整就業(yè)年限對上海市勞動力人口的影響,這又需要對上海市人口發(fā)展的規(guī)律和特征進(jìn)行預(yù)測。首先本文根據(jù)上海市人口的發(fā)展特征在人口開放條件下建立人口預(yù)測模型對上海未來勞動人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行預(yù)測。其次為有效地測算出人力資本對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長貢獻(xiàn)的這兩個(gè)方面的作用。本文引入了兩個(gè)模型一是勞動力數(shù)量影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的模型,二是勞動力質(zhì)量影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的模型即人力資本模型并通過不同的調(diào)整就業(yè)年限方案分別進(jìn)行測算,然后把二者融入到一個(gè)模型進(jìn)行綜合測算分析。 最后分析我國調(diào)整就業(yè)年限的制度現(xiàn)狀以及國際比較中有許多值得借鑒的地方如循序漸進(jìn)地提高退休年齡男女退休年齡趨于一致和推行彈性退休制度等；進(jìn)而提出調(diào)整就業(yè)年限實(shí)施的方案和對策。
[Abstract]:With the coming of the aging society and the prolongation of the life expectancy, the early retirement system has been challenged by the social development. It will be an inevitable trend to extend the employment years of the population.The employment years of the population are closely related to the life expectancy, labor intensity and education years of the population, and play a very important role in the economic development, especially in the economic growth.The adjustment of employment years as a factor affecting the change of the age structure of the working population directly affects the population dividend and human capital and then affects the economic growth.The main ways to adjust the number of years of employment are to extend the legal retirement age directly, to extend the retirement age step by step and to implement the flexible retirement system.Different ways of adjusting the number of years will have different effects on economic growth.The adjustment of the number of years of employment is mainly to increase the proportion of the working-age population by prolonging the retirement age, and promoting the economic growth by increasing the supply of labor to the economic output.There are two main contributions to economic growth: one is the direct effect of factors of production on economic growth, that is, the influence of labor force quantity and labor force participation;Secondly, its externality means that the combination of labor force and capital increases the amount of service provided by a certain amount of capital stock through the use of human capital to the capital with a certain level of technology, which is manifested by the indirect effect of human capital on economic growth.Economic growth is inseparable from the sustainable development of the labor market. In order to accurately measure the impact of adjusting the number of years of employment on economic growth, first of all, we need to measure the impact of adjusting the number of years of employment on the labor force population in Shanghai.This needs to predict the laws and characteristics of population development in Shanghai.Firstly, according to the characteristics of population development in Shanghai, this paper establishes a population prediction model to predict the age structure of Shanghai's future working population under the condition of population opening.The second is to measure the contribution of human capital to economic growth.This paper introduces two models: one is the model that the quantity of labor force affects the economic growth, the other is the model of labor quality influencing the economic growth, that is, the human capital model, which is calculated by different schemes of adjusting the number of years of employment.Then the two are integrated into a model for comprehensive calculation and analysis.Finally, this paper analyzes the current situation of the system of adjusting the number of years of employment in our country and the international comparison, such as increasing the retirement age of men and women step by step and carrying out the flexible retirement system.And then put forward the implementation of the adjustment of employment years of the program and countermeasures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海工程技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F249.2;F124.1

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