本文選題：DSGE模型　切入點(diǎn)：環(huán)境政策效應(yīng)　出處：《商業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理》2017年07期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境的交互作用機(jī)制具有復(fù)雜的動(dòng)態(tài)不確定性,因此基于歷史數(shù)據(jù)提出的環(huán)境政策存在社會(huì)試錯(cuò)成本,需要政策效應(yīng)的事前檢驗(yàn)。文章基于國(guó)外經(jīng)典模型的改進(jìn),引入環(huán)境因素處理技術(shù),構(gòu)建相應(yīng)E-DSGE模型框架;通過(guò)環(huán)境參數(shù)校準(zhǔn)與貝葉斯估計(jì)形成數(shù)據(jù)模擬平臺(tái),給出我國(guó)碳減排政策效應(yīng)的仿真測(cè)度。發(fā)現(xiàn)環(huán)境政策對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性沒(méi)有產(chǎn)生特別強(qiáng)烈的負(fù)面沖擊,但目前經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面尚難以承受高減排目標(biāo),以及不同減排政策存在較大區(qū)分度等信息;進(jìn)而得到通過(guò)逐步加快碳減排,并以相應(yīng)政策作為供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革工具,實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與碳減排推進(jìn)互動(dòng)的政策空間。該研究也可為我國(guó)DSGE模型研究提供參考。
[Abstract]:The interaction mechanism between economy and environment has complex dynamic uncertainty, so the environmental policy based on historical data has social trial and error cost, which needs to be tested in advance. The E-DSGE model framework is constructed by introducing the environmental factor processing technology, and the data simulation platform is formed by the calibration of environmental parameters and Bayesian estimation. The results show that the environmental policy has not had a particularly strong negative impact on the stability of China's economic system, but the current economic fundamentals are still difficult to withstand high emission reduction targets. As well as different emission reduction policies and other information such as greater differentiation; and then through the gradual acceleration of carbon emissions reduction, and the corresponding policies as a supply-side structural reform tool, The policy space to realize the interaction between economic restructuring and carbon emission reduction. This study can also provide a reference for the study of DSGE model in China.
【作者單位】： 河南大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)理工學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“我國(guó)稅收改革政策宏觀效果的統(tǒng)計(jì)測(cè)度與評(píng)價(jià)研究”(15BTJ010) 教育部基地重大項(xiàng)目“經(jīng)濟(jì)政策宏觀作用機(jī)制數(shù)量模擬理論方法及其應(yīng)用研究”(13JJD790018)
【分類號(hào)】：F124;X321
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本文編號(hào)：1592331