本文關(guān)鍵詞： 四萬億投資 政府投資 擠出效應(yīng)　出處：《廣西師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2008年9月前,美國(guó)的金融機(jī)構(gòu)連接不斷的暴出巨額虧損,同時(shí)經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況出現(xiàn)危機(jī)由于次級(jí)按揭貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加大,穆迪和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾公司于2007年7月下調(diào)了一千多只按揭貸款抵押債權(quán)的評(píng)級(jí),成為次貸危機(jī)迅速蔓延的導(dǎo)火線。同時(shí)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)減速明顯,相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)受到嚴(yán)重影響2007年第四季度美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)明顯減速,制造業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)全面疲軟,就業(yè)率和消費(fèi)迅速下降。金融市場(chǎng)的劇烈動(dòng)蕩是金融危機(jī)的導(dǎo)火索,于是2008年9月份15日在美國(guó)爆發(fā)了金融危機(jī),之后蔓延到全世界。 2008年美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)全球性金融危機(jī)后,各個(gè)政府紛紛針對(duì)本國(guó)情況進(jìn)行了政策性干預(yù),其中我國(guó)政府為了穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)在2008年底提出了四萬億刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)投資計(jì)劃,并計(jì)劃在先后兩年內(nèi)將四萬億自己全部實(shí)施到位。時(shí)至今日已四年時(shí)間過去,各項(xiàng)投資計(jì)劃已經(jīng)實(shí)施完成或者有些延后的正在實(shí)施中,錢花出去了我們更要及時(shí)總結(jié)其花的效果如何及會(huì)為今后經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來什么樣的影響,所以為了明確認(rèn)識(shí)四萬億刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)投資計(jì)劃的效果,包括積極的效果和存在的問題的選擇了該論題。四萬億刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)投資計(jì)劃的影響是多方面的、復(fù)雜性的,為了能使研究深入化特選取了GDP、就業(yè)以及相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)等指標(biāo)作為其影響對(duì)象。通過對(duì)危機(jī)發(fā)生后對(duì)政府的投資行為的評(píng)估,運(yùn)用基于價(jià)值的政府投資過程控制的理論、方法和框架,從而希望提出基于產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整等方面相應(yīng)的政策性建議。 隨著我國(guó)市場(chǎng)化改革的不斷深入發(fā)展,金融體系與世界的接軌,在這次金融危機(jī)中的影響也是較為嚴(yán)重的。時(shí)至今日,金融危機(jī)過后的各種副作用依舊存在。當(dāng)時(shí)受到影響的先是出口,出口已經(jīng)作為我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)三駕馬車中重要的一個(gè),其影響直接造成國(guó)內(nèi)大面積企業(yè)接二連三的倒閉,于是大量工人和以出口為主的產(chǎn)業(yè)破產(chǎn),在經(jīng)過了三次出口退稅的鼓勵(lì)政策后,出口造成的影響暫時(shí)得到緩解,隨后的4萬億投資計(jì)劃中,會(huì)將產(chǎn)業(yè)調(diào)整作為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的方向的目標(biāo)。 論文首先給出了研究的問題及研究的背景、目的以及現(xiàn)實(shí)的意義,之后是研究了四萬億刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)投資計(jì)劃所依托的基本理論即凱恩斯的國(guó)家干預(yù)理論。其次,借助有關(guān)文獻(xiàn)資料,研究了發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家應(yīng)對(duì)金融危機(jī)采取的措施；然后回顧下我們?cè)趺磻?yīng)對(duì)金融危機(jī),簡(jiǎn)單的描述了四萬億投資下的主要成效、以及過程中的主要問題。在借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外使用各種政策的基礎(chǔ)上,用表格數(shù)據(jù)描述性分析研究了四萬億刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)投資計(jì)劃對(duì)我國(guó)各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的影響。通過對(duì)四萬億刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)投資計(jì)劃出臺(tái)過程的回顧,提出四萬億發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀,包括積極的成效和存在的突出問題。通過分析數(shù)據(jù),可以看到四萬億投資不一定都是促進(jìn)和好的方面,里面其實(shí)也有很多不足和需要改進(jìn)的地方。
[Abstract]:Before September 2008, the connection of financial institutions in the United States continue to burst out of the huge losses, while operating conditions due to the subprime mortgage crisis risk, Moodie and Pool Co cut more than 1000 standard mortgage loans mortgage debt rating in July 2007, as the subprime crisis spread rapidly fuse. While the U.S. economy slowed down significantly, economy growth is serious impact on economic activity in the United States in 2007 fourth quarter obvious slowdown, manufacturing industry, real estate industry overall weakness, employment and consumption decreased rapidly. The financial market turmoil is the financial crisis in 2008, and in September 15 in the United States after the financial crisis spread to the whole world.
In 2008 the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global financial crisis, governments have made for their policy intervention, which the Chinese government in order to stabilize the economy at the end of 2008 proposed four trillion stimulus investment plans, and plans to have two years will be four trillion all their place. Today has over the past four years, the investment plan have completed or are being implemented in some delay, money out we should how to summarize the effect and the flowers will bring what kind of impact for the future economic development, so a clear understanding of the effect of four trillion economic stimulus investment plans, including positive effects and existing problems of the choice of the topic. Effect of four trillion economic stimulus investment plan is various, complex, in order to make in-depth study of selected GDP, employment and Indicators such as customs and related industries are taken as the object of their impact. After evaluating the government's investment behavior after the crisis, we apply the theory, method and framework of value based government investment process control, and hope to put forward corresponding policy recommendations based on industrial adjustment.
With the continuous deepening of China's market-oriented reform of the financial system, in line with the rest of the world, in this financial crisis is more serious. Today, a variety of side effects after the financial crisis still exists. At that time, affected by the first export, exports have been made for our country economy in the important three carriages a, its direct impact caused by domestic large enterprises closed down one after another, so a large number of workers and export-oriented industry bankruptcy, after three times the export tax rebate policy to encourage exports, causing temporarily eased, then the 4 trillion investment plan, will adjust the industry as the direction of economic development. The target.
璁烘枃棣栧厛緇欏嚭浜?jiǎn)鐮斀I剁殑闂鍙?qiáng)鐮斀I剁殑鑳屾櫙,鐩殑浠ュ強(qiáng)鐜板疄鐨勬剰涔，

本文編號(hào)：1554146