本文關(guān)鍵詞： 安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué) 國(guó)際化困境 有效性分析 實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)　出處：《山東師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自1990年以來,日本經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)被通貨緊縮、消費(fèi)低迷、增長(zhǎng)乏力所籠罩,為了應(yīng)對(duì)上述經(jīng)濟(jì)頹勢(shì),日本首相安倍晉三于2013年推出“老三支箭”政策,即相對(duì)寬松的貨幣政策、靈活多變的財(cái)政政策以及有力的結(jié)構(gòu)改革。政策實(shí)施初期效果明顯,但隨著改革政策的進(jìn)一步推行,暴露出一系列的弊端,政策效果也大打折扣。為了促進(jìn)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的深化,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,支持兒童的發(fā)展培育,改善社會(huì)保障,2015年又推出“新三支箭”政策。本文通過實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)和理論分析相結(jié)合的方法來研究安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)對(duì)解決日本經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境的有效性,最后得出結(jié)論并且提出展望。本文首先對(duì)安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)“新、老三支箭”政策做了簡(jiǎn)要的概述,闡述了它的內(nèi)容和理論基礎(chǔ)。“老三支箭”包括靈活積極的財(cái)政政策、長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略和寬松的貨幣政策,“新三支箭”政策包括改善社會(huì)保障、支持培育兒童和促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展三個(gè)方面。財(cái)政政策的理論基礎(chǔ)是凱恩斯的財(cái)政觀點(diǎn),貨幣政策的理論基礎(chǔ)是濱田宏一的通貨膨脹思想,長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略的理論基礎(chǔ)是改革派的新經(jīng)濟(jì)自由主義反政府干預(yù)的觀點(diǎn)。其次對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境做出了界定,并詳盡分析了日本當(dāng)前在經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化方面的困境,具體包括:日元的國(guó)際化困境,日本市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)模式的困境,財(cái)政貨幣政策的困境,金融體系的再次國(guó)際化困境,產(chǎn)業(yè)國(guó)際化的困境,少子、老齡化的人口困境。再次運(yùn)用VAR模型對(duì)安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)“新、老三支箭”政策對(duì)解決日本面臨的經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境的有效性進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。由于日本面臨的經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境復(fù)雜,安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的政策也涵蓋多個(gè)方面,為了研究的深入性,本文選取安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中量化寬松的貨幣政策作為代表,運(yùn)用VAR計(jì)量模型對(duì)量化寬松貨幣政策在解決經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境方面的有效性進(jìn)行了著重的實(shí)證分析。分析表明,安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)在解決日本經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境方面有一定的有效性,量化寬松政策刺激了GDP、CPI、EXP的增加,促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,激發(fā)了市場(chǎng)活力,為經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境的解決提供了物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)與動(dòng)力。之后,運(yùn)用理論分析來研究安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)其他政策對(duì)解決日本經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境的有效性。分析表明,安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)對(duì)解決日本經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境有一定的有效性,積極的財(cái)政政策刺激了日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)興,結(jié)構(gòu)性改革提高了日本女性的就業(yè)率,“新三支箭”政策觸及了日本少子、老齡化的根本問題,激發(fā)了社會(huì)活力。但是安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)在解決日本經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境的過程中也暴露出一些不足,具體體現(xiàn)在:安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)政策催生的日元貶值難以持續(xù),為了貶值不惜以鄰為壑,日元在國(guó)際間流通受阻;過度干預(yù)經(jīng)濟(jì),沒有突破由政府主導(dǎo)的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)模式;積極的財(cái)政政策、貨幣政策推高了日本債務(wù),使得債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增大,貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制受阻;日本金融體系國(guó)際化面臨更大的資本約束,海外投資者盲目投資股市,加劇金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn);以政府為導(dǎo)向的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)模式極大地限制了日本產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展模式總體方向正確但實(shí)施效果并不理想,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)乏力,競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力不足,創(chuàng)新不夠;少子、老齡化問題缺乏有效解決方案,“女性經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”使更多女性遠(yuǎn)離家庭,加劇少子化困境。最后得出結(jié)論并提出展望,安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)短期效果顯著但中長(zhǎng)期效果并不明顯,從目前來看,僅僅依靠安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)難以使日本走出經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境,而且給日本帶來了很多次生的危害。但不可否認(rèn),安倍內(nèi)閣所采取的刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的方式是正確的,也是符合日本國(guó)情的,而且,安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)還在不斷的調(diào)整中,根據(jù)政策實(shí)施過程中出現(xiàn)的問題,安倍政府也在積極尋求方法解決,通過這樣不斷摸索的改革,日本經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)際化困境的解決指日可待。
[Abstract]:Since 1990, the Japanese economy continues to be deflation, consumer downturn, weak growth shrouded, in order to deal with the economic downturn, Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo in 2013 launched the "third arrow" policy, which is a relatively loose monetary policy, flexible fiscal policies and strong structural reforms. The initial implementation of policy effect is obvious, but with the further the implementation of the reform policy, exposed a series of defects, the policy effect is greatly reduced. In order to promote the deepening of structural reform, promoting economic development, foster the development of children's support, improve social security, launched in 2015 and the "new three arrow" policy. Through the combined method of empirical research and theoretical analysis to the study of Andouble economics is effective for the Japanese economy internationalization dilemma, finally draws the conclusion and puts forward the prospect. Firstly, Andouble "new economic school, third Arrow "policy to do a brief overview, discusses its content and theoretical basis. The" three arrows "includes a flexible active fiscal policy, the long-term economic growth strategy and loose monetary policy," the new three arrow "policies including the improvement of social security, support and foster children and promote the three aspects of economic development. The basic theory of fiscal policy is Keynes's financial point of view, the theoretical basis of monetary policy is the theoretical basis of Hamada Hiroshii thought inflation, long-term economic growth strategy is a reformist New Economic Liberalism anti government intervention point. Secondly the definition of economic internationalization dilemma made, and a detailed analysis of the current difficulties in the economic internationalization the Japanese yen internationalization includes: dilemma, mode of economy of market of Japan's plight, fiscal and monetary policy dilemma, dilemma again international financial system, production The internationalization of the plight of minority population, the aging of the dilemma again. A VAR model based on the "new Andouble economics, third arrow" policy on the effectiveness of solving the dilemma of economic internationalization facing Japan empirically. Because of the economic internationalization dilemma faced by Japan complex, Andouble's economics policy also covers many aspects, in order to further study, this paper selects the quantitative easing monetary policy Andouble in economics as a representative, effective use of VAR econometric model of quantitative easing monetary policy in resolving international economic plight is analyzed emphatically. The empirical analysis shows that the Andouble economics is effective in solving the dilemma of the Japanese economy internationalization, quantitative easing policy to stimulate the GDP, CPI, EXP increase, promote economic development, stimulate the vitality of the market, for solving the dilemma of economic internationalization provides Based on quality and power. After that, Andouble to study economics other policy is effective for the Japanese economy internationalization dilemma by theoretical analysis. The analysis shows that the Andouble economics is effective to solve the dilemma of Japan economic internationalization, the proactive fiscal policy to stimulate the economy revival, structural reforms to improve the Japanese women's employment rate, "the new three arrow" policy hit Japan's low birthrate, the fundamental problem of aging, stimulate the vitality of society. But Andouble economics in the process of solving the plight of the Japanese economy internationalization also exposes some shortcomings, embodied in: Andouble economic policy has continued to decline to the depreciation of the yen, at the expense of circulation blocked in the international yen; excessive intervention in the economy, there is no breakthrough market economy mode dominated by the government; the positive fiscal policy, monetary policy to push up the day This debt, the debt risk increases, the monetary policy transmission mechanism is blocked; the internationalization of Japanese financial system faces greater capital constraints, overseas investors blindly invest in stocks, exacerbating the financial risk; the government oriented market economy mode has greatly restricted the development of Japanese industry, the overall direction of industrial development model is correct but the effect is not ideal. Weak economic growth, lack of competitiveness, innovation is not enough; less, the lack of effective solutions to the problem of aging, "female economics" to get more women away from home, increasing birthrate dilemma. Finally draws the conclusion and put forward the prospects, short-term effect is significant but the Andouble economics long-term effect is not obvious, from the current point of view, relying solely on Andouble economics it is difficult to make Japan out of the economic internationalization dilemma, but Japan has brought a lot of secondary harm. But it cannot be denied that Andouble's cabinet. The way to stimulate the economy is correct, but in line with the national conditions of Japan, and Andouble economics is in constant adjustment, according to the problems in the process of policy implementation, the Andouble administration is also actively seeking solutions, through the reform of this trial, to solve the dilemma of economic internationalization point the day and await for it.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F131.3

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 董佳佳;;安倍女性經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的必要性及有效性實(shí)證分析——以日本女性幸福感為視角[J];商業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2017年03期

2 丁冰;;“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”的破產(chǎn)及其對(duì)我國(guó)的啟示[J];山東社會(huì)科學(xué);2017年01期

3 李曉春;;日本勞動(dòng)力供給亮起紅燈[J];人民論壇;2017年01期

4 郭紅玉;許爭(zhēng);梁斯;;“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”能夠讓日本經(jīng)濟(jì)走出困境嗎?——基于日本質(zhì)化量化寬松貨幣政策的分析[J];南方金融;2015年10期

5 金京淑;馬學(xué)禮;;人口老齡化困境中的“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”——兼評(píng)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的前景[J];現(xiàn)代日本經(jīng)濟(jì);2015年03期

6 姜躍春;;“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”的困境與日本經(jīng)濟(jì)前景[J];國(guó)際問題研究;2015年02期

7 陳剛;;日本財(cái)政政策視角下安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的邏輯和前景[J];現(xiàn)代日本經(jīng)濟(jì);2015年02期

8 于洪洋;;國(guó)際政治視角下的“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”[J];現(xiàn)代日本經(jīng)濟(jì);2014年06期

9 丁紅衛(wèi);;安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與中國(guó)企業(yè)的對(duì)日并購(gòu)[J];現(xiàn)代日本經(jīng)濟(jì);2014年06期

10 任云;;“失去的20年”與“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”增長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略[J];國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論;2014年04期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 王晗;安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中擴(kuò)張性的貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響[D];吉林大學(xué);2016年

2 于銘佳;安倍政府治理通貨緊縮經(jīng)濟(jì)政策分析[D];延邊大學(xué);2014年

，

本文編號(hào)：1552881