本文關(guān)鍵詞： 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)建模協(xié)調(diào)可持續(xù)發(fā)展 3E系統(tǒng)　出處：《成都理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的過程中，能源、環(huán)境要素發(fā)揮著重要作用。本文通過研究成都市經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的過程中能源消費(fèi)和環(huán)境污染治理狀況，總結(jié)出成都市能源和環(huán)境要素對于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響效用，為今后經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展提出了科學(xué)建議，這對于成都市轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展，具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文以成都市經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源、環(huán)境三大系統(tǒng)所組成的復(fù)合系統(tǒng)為研究對象，探索各子系統(tǒng)之間的關(guān)系，旨在發(fā)掘成都市實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的因素，從而推動成都市經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源、環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。本文運(yùn)用西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、統(tǒng)計學(xué)、計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)等相關(guān)理論和分析方法，內(nèi)容主要圍繞成都市地區(qū)能源-環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)3E系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型的建立、數(shù)據(jù)的收集、模型參數(shù)的估計、能源消費(fèi)和環(huán)境污染對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展影響率的測算幾個方面進(jìn)行。主要研究成果是： 1.根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、統(tǒng)計學(xué)相關(guān)理論和系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)相關(guān)知識，建立了成都市經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源、環(huán)境3E系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型，該模型包含了經(jīng)濟(jì)子系統(tǒng)、能源子系統(tǒng)和環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)，同時各子系統(tǒng)要素的選擇結(jié)合了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)基本理論，又考慮了成都市的實(shí)際，能夠較為真實(shí)的反映成都市發(fā)展的實(shí)際情況。 2.運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計學(xué)方法估計出各子系統(tǒng)相關(guān)要素間的關(guān)系，并列出系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)方程。根據(jù)測算結(jié)果：（1）成都市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對于能源需求的依存度較高，同時又明顯受環(huán)境因素的制約；（2）治理廢氣項(xiàng)目的投資比例對地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值、能源消費(fèi)、地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值增長量、固體廢棄物污染物存量影響為正，說明投入治理廢氣的投資增加時，會拉動地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值、能源消費(fèi)的增加；治理廢氣項(xiàng)目的投資比例對空氣污染存量和污水污染存量的靈敏度影響為負(fù)，說明投入治理廢氣的投資增加時，會使空氣污染存量和污水污染存量的減少；（3）第二產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的比例與地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值、能源消費(fèi)、地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值增長量、固體廢棄物污染物存量和污水污染的存量成正向增長，具有正向作用；（4）協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展模式著重于優(yōu)化三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和環(huán)保投資結(jié)構(gòu)，調(diào)整第一產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的比例達(dá)到1:49:50，治理廢氣項(xiàng)目投資比重、治理固體廢棄物項(xiàng)目治理比重和治理廢水項(xiàng)目投資比重三者比重調(diào)整為5:1:4，同時按照年均0.5的減少速度調(diào)整降低各年單位GDP能耗，協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展模式為成都市未來發(fā)展最優(yōu)模式。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于：從系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的原理入手，，分析了成都市經(jīng)濟(jì)-能源-環(huán)境各子系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及各系統(tǒng)之間相互影響的關(guān)系，根據(jù)實(shí)際情況分析建立了成都市經(jīng)濟(jì)-能源-環(huán)境3E系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型。最后通過運(yùn)用計算機(jī)仿真模擬出成都市能源、環(huán)境以及社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的未來發(fā)展情況，并對仿真預(yù)測結(jié)果提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:In the process of sustainable economic development, energy and environmental factors play an important role. This paper studies the situation of energy consumption and environmental pollution in the process of coordinated and sustainable economic development in Chengdu. This paper summarizes the effect of energy and environment factors on economic growth in Chengdu, and puts forward some scientific suggestions for the future economic development, which will change the mode of economic growth and realize sustainable economic development in Chengdu. It has important practical significance. This paper takes the complex system of Chengdu economy, energy and environment as the research object, and explores the relationship between the subsystems, in order to explore the factors of realizing the coordinated economic development in Chengdu. In order to promote the coordinated development of Chengdu economy, energy, environment. This paper uses western economics, statistics, econometrics, system dynamics and other related theories and analysis methods. The contents mainly focus on the establishment of system dynamics model, data collection and estimation of model parameters of energy, environment and economic 3e system in Chengdu. Energy consumption and environmental pollution impact on economic development are measured in several aspects. The main research results are as follows: 1. According to the related theories of economics, statistics and system dynamics, the system dynamics model of Chengdu economy, energy and environment is established, which includes the economic subsystem. Energy subsystem and environment subsystem, at the same time, the choice of the elements of each subsystem combined with the basic theory of economics, but also considered the reality of Chengdu, which can reflect the actual situation of Chengdu development. 2. Using the statistical method to estimate the relationship between the relevant elements of each subsystem, and to list the system dynamics equation. According to the result of calculation, the economic development of Chengdu has a high degree of dependence on the energy demand. At the same time, it is obviously restricted by environmental factors; (2) the proportion of investment in waste gas treatment projects has a positive effect on the regional GDP, energy consumption, the growth of regional GDP, and the stock of solid waste pollutants, indicating that the investment in the treatment of waste gas is increasing. Will stimulate the region's GDP, energy consumption increases; The sensitivity of the investment proportion of waste gas treatment to air pollution and sewage pollution is negative, which shows that the increase of investment in waste gas treatment will reduce the air pollution and sewage pollution. (3) the ratio of the output value of the secondary industry to the region's gross domestic product (GDP) is in a positive direction with the regional GDP, the energy consumption, the growth of the regional GDP, the storage of solid waste pollutants and the stock of sewage pollution. Has the positive action; 4) the coordinated development model focuses on optimizing the structure of three industries and investment in environmental protection, and adjusting the structure of the primary industry. The proportion of the structure of the secondary industry and the structure of the third industry reaches 1:49:50. The proportion of investment in waste gas treatment projects, solid waste treatment projects and wastewater treatment projects was adjusted to 5: 1: 4. At the same time, the energy consumption per unit GDP is reduced according to the average reduction rate of 0. 5 per year, and the coordinated development model is the best model for the future development of Chengdu. The innovation of this paper lies in: starting with the principle of system dynamics, this paper analyzes the development status of each subsystem of economy, energy and environment in Chengdu and the relationship between each system. According to the actual situation, the system dynamics model of the economic-energy-environment 3e system in Chengdu is established. Finally, the energy source of Chengdu is simulated by computer simulation. The future development of environment and social economy, and the policy suggestions on the simulation prediction results are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X22;F426.2;F127

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