本文關(guān)鍵詞： 中等收入陷阱 經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整 金融支持　出處：《廈門大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中等收入陷阱是中國(guó)在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中必須正視的一個(gè)問題。國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)中等收入陷阱問題的研究普遍從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)機(jī)制的角度進(jìn)行分析,認(rèn)為一國(guó)原有的增長(zhǎng)模式無法滿足該國(guó)在中等收入階段經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的需要是導(dǎo)致中等收入陷阱的根本原因,而跨越中等收入陷阱的關(guān)鍵就在于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)力的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 規(guī)避中等收入陷阱,實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng),最終進(jìn)入高收入國(guó)家行列離不開一國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,具體的兩大方向是對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行升級(jí)和對(duì)投資消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行調(diào)整以實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)三大驅(qū)動(dòng)力的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。而一國(guó)的金融體系在這一過程中發(fā)揮著重要作用,被公認(rèn)為陷入中等收入陷阱的南美與東南亞國(guó)家的教訓(xùn)表明：金融體系對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的金融支持失效一方面會(huì)阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,一方面會(huì)加劇整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),甚至爆發(fā)危機(jī),使該國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)雪上加霜。當(dāng)前中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)同樣面臨著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和投資消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡的問題。本文通過理論和實(shí)證表明,在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)方面,中國(guó)金融系統(tǒng)傳統(tǒng)的銀行主導(dǎo)型間接融資方式其本身的信貸行業(yè)偏好已經(jīng)使之不能適應(yīng)跨越中等收入陷阱階段產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)的需要,甚至對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)起到了負(fù)面作用,因此需要提高通過資本市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行融資的直接融資方式在社會(huì)融資規(guī)模中所占的比例,以此來滿足新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的融資需求；在調(diào)整投資消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡這一老大難問題面前,中國(guó)金融系統(tǒng)則不應(yīng)當(dāng)盲目的將金融資源在投資消費(fèi)兩部門間進(jìn)行再分配,因?yàn)檫@一舉措在長(zhǎng)期對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響具有不確定性,在短期甚至?xí)鸬截?fù)面作用,而是應(yīng)當(dāng)在保持金融資源分配穩(wěn)定的前提下,著重支持兩部門中的高投資收益行業(yè),進(jìn)而從總體上提高兩部門的增長(zhǎng)率,使整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)保持在相對(duì)穩(wěn)定的增長(zhǎng)狀態(tài)。 基于上述判斷,在進(jìn)一步的金融政策實(shí)踐中,一方面應(yīng)當(dāng)通過構(gòu)建完善的多層次資本市場(chǎng)體系引導(dǎo)加強(qiáng)資本市場(chǎng)直接融資在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)中發(fā)揮的作用,另一方面,在避免盲目從生產(chǎn)方調(diào)配消費(fèi)投資兩部門金融資源的基礎(chǔ)上,可嘗試從需求端入手通過消費(fèi)信貸相關(guān)政策逐步增加消費(fèi),改善投資消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡的問題。
[Abstract]:Middle-income trap is a problem that China must face in the course of economic development. The research on middle-income trap at home and abroad is generally analyzed from the angle of economic growth mechanism. It is believed that the original growth model of a country can not meet the needs of economic growth in the middle-income stage, which is the fundamental cause of the middle-income trap. The key to cross the middle-income trap lies in the coordinated development of industrial structure upgrading and economic growth driving force. To avoid the middle-income trap, to achieve long-term stable economic growth, and finally to enter the ranks of high-income countries can not be separated from the economic restructuring of one country. The two specific directions are upgrading the industrial structure and adjusting the structure of investment and consumption in order to achieve the coordinated development of the three driving forces of economic growth, and the financial system of a country plays an important role in this process. The lessons of South America and South-East Asia, which have been recognized as being trapped in the middle-income trap, suggest that the failure of financial support to the real economy in the financial system can, on the one hand, impede economic structural adjustment and, on the other, exacerbate the risks to the economy as a whole. The current Chinese economy is also facing the problem of imbalance between industrial structure and investment and consumption structure. This paper shows that the upgrading of industrial structure is in the aspect of industrial structure upgrading through theoretical and empirical analysis. The traditional bank-led indirect financing mode in China's financial system has been unable to adapt to the needs of industrial upgrading in the period of middle income trap because of its own credit industry preference. It has even played a negative role in industrial upgrading and economic growth, so it is necessary to increase the proportion of direct financing through the capital market in the scale of social financing. To meet the financing needs of emerging industries; In the face of the long-standing problem of adjusting the imbalance of investment and consumption structure, China's financial system should not blindly redistribute financial resources between the two sectors of investment and consumption. Because the long-term impact of this measure on economic growth is uncertain, even in the short term will play a negative role, but should be in the premise of maintaining a stable distribution of financial resources. Emphasis is placed on supporting the high investment return industries in the two sectors, thus increasing the growth rate of the two sectors as a whole and keeping the whole economy in a relatively stable state of growth. Based on the above judgment, in the further financial policy practice, on the one hand, we should build a perfect multi-level capital market system to guide and strengthen the role of direct capital market financing in the upgrading of industrial structure. On the other hand, on the basis of avoiding blindly allocating the financial resources of the two sectors from the production side, we can try to increase consumption step by step from the demand side through the consumption credit related policies. The problem of improving the imbalance of investment and consumption structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832;F121.3

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