本文關(guān)鍵詞：人口變化趨勢(shì)下升學(xué)率對(duì)GDP影響的仿真研究　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué) 生育水平 勞動(dòng)力人口 升學(xué)率 GDP

【摘要】：隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)的迅猛發(fā)展和知識(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)的到來(lái),我國(guó)在上個(gè)世紀(jì)末就提出了“科教興國(guó)”的戰(zhàn)略。如今,知識(shí)已經(jīng)成為了社會(huì)的又一生產(chǎn)要素�？茖W(xué)技術(shù)不斷轉(zhuǎn)化為現(xiàn)實(shí)生產(chǎn)力,而推動(dòng)科學(xué)技術(shù)發(fā)展并使之發(fā)揮作用的關(guān)鍵因素是人。在過(guò)去的30年里,我國(guó)快速的人口增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭得到有效控制,人口總量增長(zhǎng)速度下降,但同時(shí)老年人口的比重也在不斷增加,勞動(dòng)力人口比重開(kāi)始減小,使得我國(guó)過(guò)早進(jìn)入人口老齡化時(shí)期,人口紅利持續(xù)下降甚至?xí)�。在�?jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)中,除了物質(zhì)資本的投入,人力資本也發(fā)揮著相當(dāng)重要的作用。而教育能夠提高勞動(dòng)力的技能水平,提高勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率,是提升人力資本總量的一個(gè)重要途徑。在我國(guó)的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況下,研究人口與教育對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響作用是有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的。本文旨在分析我國(guó)人口、教育和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間互動(dòng)關(guān)系的歷史和現(xiàn)狀,探討未來(lái)人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化和教育水平變化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響作用。為了研究人口、教育、經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的關(guān)系,本文基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的研究方法,繪制包含人口、教育、經(jīng)濟(jì)在內(nèi)的因果關(guān)系圖,并建立系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,研究我國(guó)現(xiàn)在人口結(jié)構(gòu)與勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量及未來(lái)30年的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。通過(guò)控制兒童入學(xué)率和不同級(jí)別教育的升學(xué)率來(lái)分析各等級(jí)教育在校的學(xué)生人數(shù),進(jìn)而得到我國(guó)人均受教育年限。利用人均受教育年限與勞動(dòng)力人口數(shù)共同代表人力資本(即文中的勞動(dòng)力教育資本),找到其與經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的關(guān)系。然后仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)不同生育水平和不同升學(xué)率情況下的未來(lái)GDP發(fā)展趨勢(shì)及GDP增長(zhǎng)率變化情況,發(fā)現(xiàn)人口增長(zhǎng)和教育水平的提高對(duì)GDP增長(zhǎng)速度都有一定的促進(jìn)作用。最后根據(jù)仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of science and technology and the arrival of knowledge economy, our country put forward the strategy of "rejuvenating the country through science and education" at the end of last century. Knowledge has become another factor of production in society. Science and technology have been transformed into real productive forces, and the key factor to promote the development and function of science and technology is human. China's rapid population growth momentum has been effectively controlled, the total population growth rate decreased, but at the same time the proportion of the elderly population is also increasing, the proportion of labor force population began to decrease. Make our country enter the aging period of population prematurely, the population dividend will continue to decline or even disappear. In the economic growth, in addition to the input of material capital. Human capital also plays a very important role. And education can improve the skill level of labor force and improve labor productivity, which is an important way to improve the total amount of human capital. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of population and education on economic growth. This paper aims to analyze the history and current situation of the interaction among population, education and economic growth in China. In order to study the relationship among population, education and economy, this paper, based on the research method of system dynamics, draws the concept of population and education. The causality diagram of economy is included, and the system dynamics model is established. This paper studies the current population structure, the number of labor force and the development trend in the next 30 years. It analyzes the number of students in different levels of education by controlling the enrollment rate of children and the transition rate of different levels of education. Then we can get the average number of years of education in our country, the number of years of education and the number of labor force to represent the human capital (that is, the educational capital of labor force in this paper). Find out the relationship between it and the economy. Then simulate the future trend of GDP and the change of GDP growth rate under different fertility level and different transition rate. It is found that the increase of population and education level can promote the growth of GDP to some extent. Finally, according to the results of simulation experiment, the relevant policy suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：G40-054;F124

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