本文關鍵詞：中國地方政府債務現(xiàn)狀及其對經濟增長的影響　出處：《復旦大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 地方政府債務 債務負擔 平臺公司債券 經濟增長

【摘要】：舉借債務是政府融資的重要手段之一,能夠使政府在稅收之外獲得更加充裕的資金。在我國,地方政府債務種類多樣,層級復雜且隱蔽性強,這些都加大了對地方政府債務研究的困難。2009年以來,地方政府平臺公司債務出現(xiàn)了井噴式的增長,在債務巨額增長的同時,債務的違約風險以及其對經濟的影響引起了社會的關注�；谶@一現(xiàn)實背景,本文通過各種渠道收集地方政府的債務信息,一方面通過對債務數據的統(tǒng)計性分析來簡單衡量地方政府債務的風險,另一方面通過對債務與地方經濟的實證分析來探討債務對經濟增長的影響以及可能的影響機制。本文通過對債務數據的統(tǒng)計性分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)債務的增長存在一定的地區(qū)差異和層級差異,部分地方政府面臨較大的債務負擔。統(tǒng)計分析顯示,東部經濟較發(fā)達地區(qū)的債務融資數量顯著高于內陸經濟較落后地區(qū),這容易進一步拉大地區(qū)間的經濟差異；市縣級等財力較弱政府的債務增長率急速攀升,加大了債務的償還風險；許多省份債務占財政收入的比重較高,政府面臨較大的償還壓力。本文的實證分析結果表明政府債務負擔對經濟增長有負面的影響,通過進一步的交互性檢驗,認為債務減緩經濟增長可能是通過抑制投資以及抑制技術進步這兩種渠道實現(xiàn)的。
[Abstract]:Debt is an important means of government financing, to make the government more ample funds in addition to the tax revenue. In our country, local government debt levels of species diversity, complex and concealment, since these have increased the difficulty of local government debt of.2009 years, the local government platform company debt blowout growth in huge debt growth, debt default risk and its impact on the economy has aroused the concern of society. Based on the realistic background, this paper collects local government debt information through various channels, on the one hand, through the statistical analysis of the data on debt risk to simple measure of local government debt, on the other hand through the empirical analysis of the debt and the local economy to explore the effect of debt to economic growth as well as the possible influence mechanism. In this paper, through the statistical data of the debt Analysis found that there are some regional differences and different levels of debt growth, some local governments face greater debt burden. Statistical analysis showed that the number of debt financing in the economically developed eastern region were significantly higher than those in inland economically backward areas, this is easy to pull economic differences between regions; county level financial weak government debt the growth rate of the rapid rise, increase the debt risk; many provinces debt accounted for a higher proportion of revenue, the government is facing greater pressure to repay. The empirical results show that government debt burden has a negative impact on economic growth, through the interactive test further, think the debt of slowing economic growth may be achieved by inhibiting investment and suppress the technological progress of these two channels.

【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.5;F124.1

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本文編號：1416961